Week 4 Picks

"I tell you what, I would love to meet the Queen . . ."

This is worth your time, especially if you have any familiarity with Steelers' CB Ike Taylor.

THROUGH 3 WEEKS:
Against the spread: 25-21-2
Straight up: 36-12

THIS WEEK:
Against the spread: 0-1
Straight up: 1-0

Colts - 8 over JAGUARS: Just can't bet on Jacksonville right now

Seahawks - 1.5 over TEXANS: This one opened at 3.5, at which point I liked Houston.  Seattle's the better team though; expect them to win the game and cover.

Bears +3 over LIONS (Bears to win): Not quite ready to anoint Detroit just yet, especially given the trouble they had with Washington.

CHIEFS - 4 over Giants: Might be a sucker bet, but I'll take the 3-0 team playing at home by more than 4 over the 0-3 team

Bengals - 3 over BROWNS: Opened at 4.5.  Just weird.  Cleveland was impressive last week but it feels like a backup QB-induced spark.  Those usually last a week.  Brian Hoyer comes back to earth tonight.

Cardinals - 2.5 over BUCS: Mike Glennon!

Ravens - 3 over BILLS: Baltimore should be favored by more after their impressive performance last week.

Vikings + 3 over Steelers (in London, Vikings to win): Free money.  I don't care that Matt Cassel is starting.

RAIDERS + 3.5 over Redskins (Redskins to win): *head explodes*

Jets + 3.5 over TITANS (Titans to win): Interesting game.  Titans by a FG feels right.  Jets are 3-0 ATS but their wins are hardly impressive or convincing (Bills and Bucs, both at home, both by a TD or less).

COWBOYS - 2 over Chargers: Chargers are due to lay an egg.

BRONCOS - 10.5 over Eagles: We have a 2007 Patriots situation here with the Broncos, where you just can't make the line high enough against mediocre teams.

Patriots + 1.5 over FALCONS (Patriots to win): I actually think New England puts it all together in this game in a convincing win

Dolphins + 6.5 over SAINTS (Saints to win): Expect a shoot-out, expect Ryan Tannehill to look remarkably confident, and expect the Saints to win by less than a TD.

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Tonight: Rams +3 over Niners

Hey, remember that time Sam Bradford was a #1 overall pick?

Tough one tonight.  I literally went back and forth about 5 times.  San Fran has looked downright terrible the past two weeks.  Kaepernick looks like a rookie QB, which shouldn't be shocking given that tonight will be just his 11th NFL regular season start.  I may or may not have just benched him in fantasy for Terrelle Pryor.  The Rams, on the other hand, looked putrid last week against Dallas in a game I thought they'd compete in.

In any event, make it easy on yourself: it's two 1-2 teams in a divisional match-up, except the home team's getting a field goal instead of giving it.  Plus, the line moved toward St. Louis, so the smart money's on the Rams.  So is my pick.

THE PICK: Niners 21, Rams 19

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Week 3 picks

Posted to my office door during last week's atrocious 4-12 performance against the spread

SEASON TO DATE
Against the spread: 14-17-1
Straight-up: 25-7

THIS WEEK: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 straight-up

Chargers +3 over TITANS (Chargers to win): One of these teams will be 2-1.  I think Titans left everything on the field against the Texans and have a let down against an underrated offense.  Only worry is that San Diego's playing a 10 a.m. game on the west coast

Browns + 6.5 over VIKINGS (Vikings to win): Running back is the most fungible position in sports.  The Bobby Rainey / Chris Ogbonnaya train won't make the Browns offense much worse than it was with Richardson.  Look for Cleveland to put up a valiant effort in a close loss

Bucs + 7 over PATRIOTS (Patriots to win): Another close Pats win prevents Bostonians from jumping off the Tobin Bridge

Texans -2.5 over RAVENS: Houston squeaks out another one and, like New England, becomes a 3-0 team that absolutely no one's afraid of

Rams + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Rams to win): Sneaky-good game for St. Louis in Atlanta; without a flukey DTD, St. Louis might have won that game.  Dallas isn't nearly as good as Atlanta

SAINTS - 7 over Cardinals: At 7.5, this is much harder.  But the Saints should win by a TD at home

Lions +1 over REDSKINS (Lions to win): Feels like a sucker bet, but all of Washington's offense is in garbage time and Detroit is pretty potent

BENGALS +2.5 over Packers (Bengals to win): Statement game for the Hard Knocks crew

PANTHERS -1 over Giants: Two 0-2 teams; take the one at home that doesn't have 2 extra points of Vegas hype associated with it because it's from New York

DOLPHINS -1 over Falcons: Say it with me, the Miami Dolphins, your 2013 AFC East Champions

Colts +10 over NINERS (Niners to win): And not because of Trent Richardson

Jaguars + 19 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): ???

JETS - 2.5 over Bills: One of these teams will be 2-1 after this game

Bears -2.5 over STEELERS: Steelers may not score two points, so Bears cover if they can get a FG

BRONCOS - 15 over Raiders: Denver might score 50

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Tonight: Chiefs +3 over Eagles

"Whatup Andy!?"

In a battle of two evenly-matched teams, take the coach playing his old team -- the one who knows his players' tendencies -- rather than the other way around.  Also, I love watching Philly more than anyone, but Vegas is a little too excited about them.  The line's too high, and Andy celebrates a win with a "Pat's or Geno's" taste test.

THE PICK: Chiefs 28, Eagles 25

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Week 2 Picks

Think they ever punted?

I'm in a pool where I have to pick 6 games against the spread, and one of them is my "key" pick that's worth an extra point.  So far this year, I've made the Thursday night my key pick.  And as you know if you've been following this blog, I was wrong in both week 1 (thanks, Ravens' D) and week 2 (thanks, Aaron Dobson).  Not a good sign.  Thankfully, I was able to salvage a decent week last week.  Week 2 is below.  Enjoy the games:

LAST WEEK: 9-5-1 against the spread, 13-3 outright
THIS WEEK: 0-1 against the spread, 1-0 outright

EAGLES -7 over Chargers: Believe the hype on Philly.  I absolutely love watching this team.

BILLS +3 over Panthers (Bills to win): Not sure Carolina should be giving a FG on the road to anyone just yet.

Rams + 5 over FALCONS (Falcons to win): Atlanta may not be very good at this point.  Roddy White at less than 80% looms large.

Redskins +7 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Not sure we know if either of these teams is good this year.  Take the points.

Browns + 6.5 over RAVENS (Ravens to win): Ugh.

Dolphins + 2.5 over COLTS (Dolphins to win): Miami might win the AFC East.

Titans + 8.5 over TEXANS (Texans to win): Houston scrapes by again; along with the Pats, they'll be an underwhelming 2-0 team.

BEARS - 6.5 over Vikings: Minnesota was way worse than the score indicated last week against Detroit.

CHIEFS - 2.5 over Cowboys: The Arrowhead home field advantage makes the difference.

Lions - 2 over CARDINALS: Detroit scored like 8 touchdowns last week, except 4 got called back due to penalty or Calvin Johnson violating the Calvin Johnson rule.

Saints - 3 over BUCS: "Captain" Josh Freeman leads the Bucs to v . . . oh, wait.

GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos (Broncos to win): Vegas overreacting on both teams.

Jaguars + 5.5 over RAIDERS (Jaguars to win): Chad Henne ends the Blaine Gabbert era with a convincing win against the Raiders.

Niners + 3 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): Two evenly matched teams.  Home field is actually worth a little less than 3 points these days though, so take the points.

BENGALS - 6.5 over Steelers: As much as it pains me . . .

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TONIGHT'S PICK: Pats - 11

It's Geno time . . .

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

The Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 9

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Guest Fantasy Post: Bad Week 1? Don't Panic With These Three

[We're please to publish this guest article from our friends at FanDuel on week 1 fantasy duds that had their owners cringing.  We'll be back with the weekend picks later in the week.  Enjoy!  - The BQB]

It is easy as a fantasy football owner to already feel anxiety about some of the top talents on your team. However, people need to remember that there is a reason why these guys were so highly regarded. Here is what to expect from three stars who struggled in Week 1 for the rest of the season.

Mike Wallace

The Miami Dolphins expect to be AFC East and even Super Bowl contenders in 2013, and one of the major reasons is their new #1 wide receiver. However, against the Browns, the fantasy football standout was nothing more than an expensive decoy. He voiced his displeasure after the win because he was targeted only five times the entire game, with just one catch for 15 yards. Joe Haden did a solid job on him, but the play of Brian Hartline will open up opportunities for Wallace all season long. He should still be expected to reach those lofty expectations, especially once he develops a better connection with Ryan Tannehill.

Robert Griffin III

The second-year quarterback wasn’t terrible in Week 1, but he was clearly limited in Washington’s loss to Philadelphia. He threw for 329 yards, but he lost the ball a total of three times. His rushing numbers (and attempts) simply weren’t there either. Can he get healthy in time to be a solid every week fantasy football starter? He should get more and more comfortable as the season goes along, but he also has a high injury risk. Hopefully, you didn’t reach for him too much in your draft. His numbers might take a small hit, but he will still have value.

Arian Foster

Again, it wasn’t a terrible day at the office for Foster, but the Houston Texans appear to be more of a passing team than in recent memory. Thanks to a healthy Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and rookie DeAndre Hopkins, Foster could see his workload go down a bit. He was going as high as #2 overall in some leagues, so obviously expectations are pretty high. He will probably still be a top 10 running back, but his numbers will go down slightly overall this fantasy football season.

Week 1 picks

NBC needed the filler material early . . .

I guess the Ravens miss Ray Lewis.  Yesterday's post talked about how the Ravens would have to turn in an historically bad performance to not cover the spread.  Well, it happened.  Here's hoping for better luck with the rest of the week 1 picks:

SEASON OUTRIGHT: 1-0
SEASON, AGAINST THE SPREAD: 0-1

BILLS + 10 over Patriots (Pats to win outright) -- Patriots are severely depleted, EJ Manuel might be good, 10 points is way too much.

Titans +7 over STEELERS (Steelers to win) -- No way Pittsburgh should be giving 7 to anybody right now.

Falcons +3 over SAINTS (Saints to win) -- Two even teams, taking the points.

JETS + 3.5 over Bucs (Jets to win) -- The Bucs went 7-9 last year, the Jets 6-10.  The Jets probably make an upgrade at quarterback with Geno Smith, and they're playing at home.  So why are they getting more than a FG?  (Note: I'm sneakily high on the Jets this year. . .)

Chiefs -4 over JAGUARS -- No reason to think Jacksonville won't be historically bad this year.

BEARS -3 over Bengals -- The Marc Trestman era gets off to a smashing start.

BROWNS -1 over Dolphins  -- OC Norv Turner turns Brandon Weeden into a legitimate fantasy QB.

Seahawks -3.5 over PANTHERS  -- Believe the hype on Seattle.

Vikings +5 over LIONS (Lions to win)  -- Kind of silly that the line is this high.

Raiders + 10 over COLTS (Colts to win) -- Colts should regress this year, no reason anyone should be a double digit favorite in week 1, even if Matt McGloin or Terrelle Pryor are behind center in Oakland

Cardinals + 4.5 over RAMS (Rams to win outright) -- No strong opinion here.

NINERS -4.5 over Packers -- Packers ripe for a fall this year.

Giants + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Giants to win) -- Giants repay Dallas for spoiling last year's opening night party.

Eagles +3 over REDSKINS (Eagles to win) -- Philly might be sneaky-good this year.

CHARGERS + 3.5 OVER Texans (Texans to win) -- San Diego won 3 of 4 down the stretch last year, and might not be as bad as everyone thinks.  Take them getting more than a FG at home in primetime.

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Season Opener: Why the Broncos Are Favored by Way Too Much

Don't count on Wes Welker to put Denver over the top tonight

After a quiet offseason here at the BQB, we're back with a look at tonight's season opener.  Cutting right to the chase, 8.5 points (the spread) is way too much for a week 1 game between two playoffs teams, no matter where the game is (in this case, Denver), and how many key players the underdog lost (in this case, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, Donnell Ellerbe, and several others).  Especially with Denver missing both Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

We wrote about the defending champ's success on opening night last year, although the Giants ended up losing that game, in a surprise.  You probably have to throw out the record book tonight, though, because thanks to the Baltimore Orioles, the game is in Denver instead of Baltimore (though the NFL is trying to compensate with this).  Regardless, the pick is Baltimore tonight.

There's one additional element here -- a week 1 game that pits two teams who played in the previous year's playoffs.  That's happened a few times in recent history:

Year	Match-up	Previous Year’s Playoff Result	Season Opener Result	Winning Team from Last Year Lost by 7 or more?
2012	Steelers-Broncos	Broncos, 29-26	Broncos, 31-19	No (won outright)
2011	Steelers-Ravens	Steelers, 31-24	Ravens, 35-7	Yes
2010	Saints-Vikings	Saints, 31-28	Saints, 14-9	No (won outright)
2007	Patriots-Jets	Patriots, 37-16	Patriots, 38-14	No (won outright)
2005	Falcons-Eagles	Eagles, 27-10	Falcons, 14-10	No (lost by 4)
2004	Patriots-Colts	Patriots, 24-14	Patriots, 27-24	No (won outright)
2003	Raiders-Titans	Raiders, 41-24	Titans, 25-20	No (lost by 5)
2002	Patriots-Steelers	Patriots, 24-17	Patriots, 30-14	No (won outright)

Since the '02 merger, we've seen this situation 7 times.  The winning team from the previous year has only gotten smoked -- lost by a touchdown or more -- once.  I'm not seeing it tonight.  Take the Ravens and the points and thank me tomorrow morning.

THE PICK: Broncos 24, Ravens 23

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Guest Article: Fantasy Rookie RBs

We're pleased to post this guest article from our friends at FanDuel.com!

Ball, Lacy And Bell All Poised For Solid Rookie Campaigns

The 2013 NFL Draft certainly paled in comparison to last season, but there are still plenty of young players who will step in and start right away. From a fantasy perspective, a lot of these starters will be at non-skill positions, which means next to nothing to them. However, three running backs seem poised to have great 2013 seasons as the featured running back for their team. How will Montee Ball, Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell do as rookies?

Montee Ball (Denver Broncos)

After being a workhorse at Wisconsin, Ball will step into a nice situation in Denver. The Broncos, with Peyton Manning at the helm, are always going to be a pass-first team, but Ball can step in right away to provide value on the ground. Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno, the two guys who received a lot of running opportunities for Denver last year, are both injured, so it is Ball’s position to win. Durability for the long term is a concern for Ball, but as a rookie, he should be the top running back option.

Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)

Many thought that Lacy would be taken in the first round by the Packers, but the team took a gamble and it paid off. He lasted until the second round, mostly due to the fact that some teams are worried about his injury history. In Green Bay, he won’t be asked to do a ton, but he can both run and catch the ball with ease for a lot of fantasy football 2013 value. Aaron Rodgers enjoys having a running back who can catch a few passes, so expect him to have a solid all-around campaign.

Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Last season, the Steelers had a terrible time trying to find the right type of running game. Bell will get his opportunity to be a featured back, but if he can’t get it done, it could be a somewhat short stint for the former Michigan State running back. The Steelers, like the other two teams mentioned in this article, have a franchise quarterback, so Bell will not have to do a ton. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman could still earn the starting spot as well, so that is why he can’t be any higher than third right now.

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Grading The Mock Drafts: Mel Kiper is Your Champ!

Mel Kiper, your 2013 BQB Mock Draft Champ!

Thursday, we posted 6 experts' most recent mock drafts.  Last year, Peter King beat the field of 6 to take down the title.  This year, Mel Kiper of ESPN takes the title.  Final scores were as follows (see Thursday's post for scoring):

2013 BQB Mock Draft Challenge

We're back with a preview of the 2013 NFL Draft, which starts tonight at New York's Radio City Music Hall.  Last year, we graded 7 mock drafts and our friend Peter King came out on top.  This year, we'll look at the same set of mock drafts from last year, with two changes -- Mike Mayock replaces Charley Casserly (who, as of this writing, hasn't updated a mock draft in a few days), and Kash Money, last year's last place finisher, drops out, as he (she?) doesn't appear to have published a mock draft this year.

Let's meet the mock drafters:

Super Bowl Pick

Kap and Captain Comeback: Super Bowl Champs

Finally, the Super Bowl is upon us.  Although the Steelers fan in me feels a little like Pittsburgh Dad right now, I did want to go on record with my Super Bowl pick.

First of all, expect a close game.  I say this for 2 reasons: first, it's pretty hard to think either team is going to get blown out the way they're playing.  And second, Super Bowls these days are typically close games.  Take a look at some key margin of victory stats on the last 9 Super Bowls (dating back to Pats-Panthers, the game after Bill Callahan threw the game because he didn't like the Raiders):

Median margin of victory: 4

Average margin of victory: 6.7

Largest margin of victory: 14 (2009 season: Saints 31, Colts 17)

Games within 10 points: 6 (67%)

Compare that with the 12 game stretch for the 1983 to 1994 seasons:

Median margin of victory: 22.5

Average margin of victory: 23

Largest margin: 45 (1989 season: Niners 55, Broncos 10)

Games within 10 points: 2 (17%)

The era of the Super Bowl blowout seems over, and for the sake of the viewing public and advertisers everywhere ($4 million gets you 30 seconds), here's hoping the trend continues.

In a related story, the underdog has been a pretty strong bet in recent Super Bowl history, covering 4 of the past 5 games and 8 of the past 11.  Our model also actually has Baltimore as the stronger team, projecting a 1-point Ravens win largely on the strength of their convincing victories over Indianapolis and New England, both by more than 2 touchdowns.  So the pick against the spread, which has stayed steady at 3.5 is Ravens + 3.5.

Having said that, I picked the Niners to win the Super Bowl in September!  (Note: Some other gems from the post: Jets to win the AFC, Cardinals to win 11 games, and Pats to go 7-9.) Can't go back on that one now. The big question with San Francisco was always at quarterback, and through 2 weeks, things were looking great.  From my week 3 preview post:

3. Niners: 2 playoff teams from last year, 2 convincing -- if not blow-out -- victories for San Francisco, the BQB's Super Bowl pick at the start of the season.  The big story here is still QB Alex Smith, who improved on last year's ranking and currently ranks second in QB rating and fourth in ESPN's Total QBR.  Again, this is a guy who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last year, and his team went 13-3.  If Smith can even crack the top half of QBs this year, watch out.

Turns out, the Niners didn't have a quarterback better than 22nd in Total QBR this year; they had 2.  Smith finished 7th despite getting benched following a concussion, and Colin Kaepernick finished 3rd despite only 8 starts.  Though you can't say enough about Kaepernick, you also can't say enough about having a capable, experienced backup quarterback, especially to a guy who runs as much as Kaepernick.  Don't be surprised if Smith is somehow involved in this one off the bench.

Where's Joe Flacco on that list, you might ask?  The elite QB sits at #25 (regular season stats only).  It says here Flacco comes back to earth from his playoff run just enough for a close Niners victory.

The pick: Niners 27, Ravens 24

Last week: 2-0 against the spread, 0-2 outright

Playoffs: 6-4 overall, 4-6 against the spread

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Championship Weekend Picks

Which of Deion's old teams will be victorious on Sunday?

Straight to the picks heading into Championship Weekend:

Playoffs: 2-6 against the spread, 6-2 overall

In order of confidence:

NFC Championship: FALCONS +4 over Niners (Falcons to win outright).

Falcons haven't lost a meaningful game by more than 4 all year.  They're playing at home, in the dome, against a QB who, though he was wildly successful last week, has only 8 career starts to his name.  Take the points at home, and, despite our Super Bowl pick, we think Atlanta ekes this one out at home.

AFC Championship: Ravens +8 over PATRIOTS (Patriots to win outright).

No reason to think this isn't a close one given the teams' recent history, but New England gets the edge at home.  Should be the second of two excellent games this Sunday.

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Divisional Round Picks

Curtis Mayfield would want me to keep on keepin' on following an ugly week against the spread

Last week, I picked all 4 underdogs against the spread.  I went 0-4.

Last week, I picked 3 of 4 favorites to win outright.  I went 3-1.

Unbelievably, my model says to pick all 4 dogs again, this time with all 4 favorites winning.  So basically, that the Broncos will win by less than 10, the Niners by less than 3, the Falcons by less than 3, and the Pats by less than 10.  The chances of those things all happening?  Slimmer than Slim Shady.  But we go with them anyway.  And if I'm right, it should be a terrific weekend of football.

Last Week: 0-4 against the spread, 3-1 outright

This week's picks in order of confidence against the spread:

Ravens + 10 vs. BRONCOS (Broncos to win)

Texans +9.5 vs. Patriots (Patriots to win)

Seahawks +3 over Falcons (Falcons to win)

Packers +3 over Niners (Niners to win)

Think this post was crazy?  Brilliant?  Speak up in the comments!

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