Season Opener: Why the Broncos Are Favored by Way Too Much

Don't count on Wes Welker to put Denver over the top tonight

After a quiet offseason here at the BQB, we're back with a look at tonight's season opener.  Cutting right to the chase, 8.5 points (the spread) is way too much for a week 1 game between two playoffs teams, no matter where the game is (in this case, Denver), and how many key players the underdog lost (in this case, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin, Dennis Pitta, Donnell Ellerbe, and several others).  Especially with Denver missing both Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

We wrote about the defending champ's success on opening night last year, although the Giants ended up losing that game, in a surprise.  You probably have to throw out the record book tonight, though, because thanks to the Baltimore Orioles, the game is in Denver instead of Baltimore (though the NFL is trying to compensate with this).  Regardless, the pick is Baltimore tonight.

There's one additional element here -- a week 1 game that pits two teams who played in the previous year's playoffs.  That's happened a few times in recent history:

Year	Match-up	Previous Year’s Playoff Result	Season Opener Result	Winning Team from Last Year Lost by 7 or more?
2012	Steelers-Broncos	Broncos, 29-26	Broncos, 31-19	No (won outright)
2011	Steelers-Ravens	Steelers, 31-24	Ravens, 35-7	Yes
2010	Saints-Vikings	Saints, 31-28	Saints, 14-9	No (won outright)
2007	Patriots-Jets	Patriots, 37-16	Patriots, 38-14	No (won outright)
2005	Falcons-Eagles	Eagles, 27-10	Falcons, 14-10	No (lost by 4)
2004	Patriots-Colts	Patriots, 24-14	Patriots, 27-24	No (won outright)
2003	Raiders-Titans	Raiders, 41-24	Titans, 25-20	No (lost by 5)
2002	Patriots-Steelers	Patriots, 24-17	Patriots, 30-14	No (won outright)

Since the '02 merger, we've seen this situation 7 times.  The winning team from the previous year has only gotten smoked -- lost by a touchdown or more -- once.  I'm not seeing it tonight.  Take the Ravens and the points and thank me tomorrow morning.

THE PICK: Broncos 24, Ravens 23

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