Tonight: Bengals -3

Maybe if these guys were involved . . .

The Bengals have won 4 straight.  The Dolphins have lost 4 straight.  Don't make this one harder than it is.

THE PICK: Bengals 34, Dolphins 21

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Guest Fantasy Post: Bad Week 1? Don't Panic With These Three

[We're please to publish this guest article from our friends at FanDuel on week 1 fantasy duds that had their owners cringing.  We'll be back with the weekend picks later in the week.  Enjoy!  - The BQB]

It is easy as a fantasy football owner to already feel anxiety about some of the top talents on your team. However, people need to remember that there is a reason why these guys were so highly regarded. Here is what to expect from three stars who struggled in Week 1 for the rest of the season.

Mike Wallace

The Miami Dolphins expect to be AFC East and even Super Bowl contenders in 2013, and one of the major reasons is their new #1 wide receiver. However, against the Browns, the fantasy football standout was nothing more than an expensive decoy. He voiced his displeasure after the win because he was targeted only five times the entire game, with just one catch for 15 yards. Joe Haden did a solid job on him, but the play of Brian Hartline will open up opportunities for Wallace all season long. He should still be expected to reach those lofty expectations, especially once he develops a better connection with Ryan Tannehill.

Robert Griffin III

The second-year quarterback wasn’t terrible in Week 1, but he was clearly limited in Washington’s loss to Philadelphia. He threw for 329 yards, but he lost the ball a total of three times. His rushing numbers (and attempts) simply weren’t there either. Can he get healthy in time to be a solid every week fantasy football starter? He should get more and more comfortable as the season goes along, but he also has a high injury risk. Hopefully, you didn’t reach for him too much in your draft. His numbers might take a small hit, but he will still have value.

Arian Foster

Again, it wasn’t a terrible day at the office for Foster, but the Houston Texans appear to be more of a passing team than in recent memory. Thanks to a healthy Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and rookie DeAndre Hopkins, Foster could see his workload go down a bit. He was going as high as #2 overall in some leagues, so obviously expectations are pretty high. He will probably still be a top 10 running back, but his numbers will go down slightly overall this fantasy football season.

Week 10 Preview and Picks

Andrew Luck's 1st Half of 2012 is nothing short of remarkable

Following last week’s emotional 23-20 victory over the Dolphins, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about the Colts.  Consider that the Colts:

·         Went 2-14 last year

·         Parted ways with Peyton Manning, maybe the greatest quarterback of this generation

·         They had the second-worst offseason in the AFC according to our metrics

·         We had them at 2.8 expected wins for the year, good for third-worst in the league.  And we weren’t alone.

·         They went 2-3 in their first five games and had a point differential of -45.

·         They’re starting a rookie quarterback.

·         They announced their coach was diagnosed with leukemia and was leaving the team indefinitely.

·         His interim replacement, Bruce Arians, prompted a Facebook group asking for his firing while offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh (Steelers fans got Todd Haley – hmmm . . .)

So it’s really nothing short of remarkable that the Colts sit at 5-3 and would make the playoffs if they started today.  What’s particularly surprising is that the Colts are doing all this with the #1 overall pick starting at QB from opening day.  We’ve seen recent examples of rookie QBs carrying their teams to success (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez both guided their teams to conference title games in ’08 and ’09), but those guys were either later draft picks (Flacco) or were picked by teams who were at least decent the year before (both). Because a team has to have the worst record in the previous year to get the number 1 pick (translation: they stunk then, they’ll probably stink again), it’s far more rare for a team at the top of the draft to even smell the playoffs.  In fact, it’s only happened once since the merger.

Performance of QBs Drafted Number 1 Overall Since 1970

	Player	Year Drafted	Team	Record Through First 8 Starts	Team Record in First Year	Playoffs?
1	Andrew Luck	2012	IND	5-3	?	?
2	Michael Vick	2001	ATL	4-4	7-9	No
3	John Elway	1983	DEN	3-5	9-7	Yes
4	Carson Palmer	2003	CIN	3-5	8-8	No
5	Jeff George	1990	IND	3-5	7-9	No
6	Jim Plunkett	1971	NE	3-5	6-8	No
7	Terry Bradshaw	1970	PIT	3-5	5-9	No
8	S. Bartkowski	1975	ATL	3-5	4-10	No
9	Eli Manning	2004	NYG	2-6	6-10	No
10	David Carr	2002	HOU	2-6	4-12	No
11	Alex Smith	2005	SF	2-6	4-12	No
12	Jamarcus Russell	2007	OAK	2-6	4-12	No
13	Drew Bledsoe	1993	NE	1-7	5-11	No
14	V. Testaverde	1987	TB	1-7	4-11	No
15	Peyton Manning	1998	IND	1-7	3-13	No
16	Tim Couch	1999	CLE	1-7	2-14	No
17	Troy Aikman	1989	DAL	0-8	1-15	No

We tried to project Luck against this group back in April when he was drafted.  Through 8 games his performance – at least as reflected by the team’s record – is outpacing everyone in a fairly distinguished group.  Only Elway’s ’83 Broncos made the playoffs, and they were bounced by Seattle in the first round (back when Seattle was in the AFC) and really had a platoon play at QB with Elway and Steve DeBerg.  And only Michael Vick won even half of his first 8 games – and many of those were in his second season.

In short, especially in a weak AFC, Andrew Luck and the Colts could well make history this year.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Despite all the accolades we just bestowed upon Andrew Luck, we’re not quite ready to put Indy into the playoffs.  San Diego has snatched the 6 seed in the AFC from Miami on the strength of their convincing (at least via score) win over Kansas City.  Our 2 projected 6 seeds – San Diego and Tampa – square off on Sunday, and it’s likely that the loser will drop from the projected playoff field.

(Projections are 60% weighted Pythagorean expectation and 40% preseason ranking.)

AFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Texans (11.6 wins)	Texans (11.1)	Jets (10.9)	Texans (7-1)
2	Ravens (10.3)	Ravens (9.9)	Steelers (10.5)	Ravens (6-2)
3	Patriots (9.9)	Patriots (9.8)	Chargers (9.3)	Patriots (5-3)
4	Broncos (9.4)	Broncos (8.9)	Titans (8.3)	Broncos (5-3)
5	Steelers (9.9)	Steelers (9.6)	Ravens (10.2)	Colts (5-3)
6	Chargers (8.6)	Dolphins (8.6)	Bengals (10.0)	Steelers (5-3)

NFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Falcons (13.34)	Bears (13.0)	Niners (14.3)	Falcons (8-0)
2	Bears (13.33)	Niners (13.0)	Saints (14.0)	Bears (7-1)
3	Niners (12.9)	Falcons (13.0)	Packers (12.3)	Niners (6-2)
4	Giants (9.9)	Giants (10.5)	Eagles (9.3)	Giants (6-3)
5	Packers (10.9)	Packers (10.4)	Bears (11.6)	Packers (6-3)
6	Bucs (8.7)	Bucs (8.1)	Cardinals (10.6)	Seahawks (5-4)

Last week, we saw a gaggle of six teams within a half a game of the 6 spot.  This week, that total has been cut to three, with the Seahawks (8.7), Lions (8.5), and Saints (8.3) all remaining in the hunt. 

Also, San Francisco becomes the odd-team out in the race for an NFC bye.  Atlanta – stuck at #3 in our projections despite their undefeated season --  leapfrogged the Niners and Falcons, which is less a function of their win over Dallas (which was unconvincing) as it is of their relatively weak preseason projection (10.4 wins, vs. 11.6 for Chicago and 14.3 for San Fran).  That figure becomes less and less important over the course of the year in our projections, which is good for the Falcons and bad for San Francisco.  This week, we reached the tipping point.

"The BQB didn't even give us a bye before this week?"  "I dunno, he said something about only
scoring 2 points in the playoffs or something . . ."

YOU SHOULD READ THIS

Justin Halpern may have flopped with his TV show, but his “hacked” segments on Grantland are fantastic.  If you missed it, here’s a look at Tim Tebow’s inbox.  Belichick is probably my favorite.

WEEK 10 PICKS

Missed our top 3 picks last week, went 9-2 otherwise.  Weird.

LAST WEEK: 9-5 against the spread, 10-4 outright

SEASON: 68-60-5 against the spread (.531), 82-51 outright (.617)

(picks in order of confidence against the spread, outright winner in parentheses)

BEARS -1 over Texans (Bears)

JAGUARS +3 over Colts (Jaguars)

SAINTS +2.5 over Falcons (Falcons)

PANTHERS +3.5 over Broncos (Panthers)

NINERS -11 over Rams (Niners)

BENGALS +4 over Giants (Bengals)

EAGLES +1 over Cowboys (Eagles)

Jets +6.5 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks)

Bills +11 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)

Raiders +7.5 over RAVENS (Ravens)

Titans +6 over DOLPHINS (Dolphins)

Chiefs +11.5 over STEELERS (Steelers)

Chargers +3 over BUCS (Bucs)

Lions -2 over VIKINGS (Lions)

Think we’re crazy?  Think we’re brilliant?  Speak up in the comments!

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