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| Kap and Captain Comeback: Super Bowl Champs |
Finally, the Super Bowl is upon us. Although the Steelers fan in me feels a little like Pittsburgh Dad right now, I did want to go on record with my Super Bowl pick.
First of all, expect a close game. I say this for 2 reasons: first, it's pretty hard to think either team is going to get blown out the way they're playing. And second, Super Bowls these days are typically close games. Take a look at some key margin of victory stats on the last 9 Super Bowls (dating back to Pats-Panthers, the game after Bill Callahan threw the game because he didn't like the Raiders):
Median margin of victory: 4
Average margin of victory: 6.7
Largest margin of victory: 14 (2009 season: Saints 31, Colts 17)
Games within 10 points: 6 (67%)
Compare that with the 12 game stretch for the 1983 to 1994 seasons:
Median margin of victory: 22.5
Average margin of victory: 23
Largest margin: 45 (1989 season: Niners 55, Broncos 10)
Games within 10 points: 2 (17%)
The era of the Super Bowl blowout seems over, and for the sake of the viewing public and advertisers everywhere ($4 million gets you 30 seconds), here's hoping the trend continues.
In a related story, the underdog has been a pretty strong bet in recent Super Bowl history, covering 4 of the past 5 games and 8 of the past 11. Our model also actually has Baltimore as the stronger team, projecting a 1-point Ravens win largely on the strength of their convincing victories over Indianapolis and New England, both by more than 2 touchdowns. So the pick against the spread, which has stayed steady at 3.5 is Ravens + 3.5.
Having said that, I picked the Niners to win the Super Bowl in September! (Note: Some other gems from the post: Jets to win the AFC, Cardinals to win 11 games, and Pats to go 7-9.) Can't go back on that one now. The big question with San Francisco was always at quarterback, and through 2 weeks, things were looking great. From my week 3 preview post:
3. Niners: 2 playoff teams from last year, 2 convincing -- if not blow-out -- victories for San Francisco, the BQB's Super Bowl pick at the start of the season. The big story here is still QB Alex Smith, who improved on last year's ranking and currently ranks second in QB rating and fourth in ESPN's Total QBR. Again, this is a guy who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last year, and his team went 13-3. If Smith can even crack the top half of QBs this year, watch out.
Turns out, the Niners didn't have a quarterback better than 22nd in Total QBR this year; they had 2. Smith finished 7th despite getting benched following a concussion, and Colin Kaepernick finished 3rd despite only 8 starts. Though you can't say enough about Kaepernick, you also can't say enough about having a capable, experienced backup quarterback, especially to a guy who runs as much as Kaepernick. Don't be surprised if Smith is somehow involved in this one off the bench.
Where's Joe Flacco on that list, you might ask? The elite QB sits at #25 (regular season stats only). It says here Flacco comes back to earth from his playoff run just enough for a close Niners victory.
The pick: Niners 27, Ravens 24
Last week: 2-0 against the spread, 0-2 outright
Playoffs: 6-4 overall, 4-6 against the spread
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