Week 5 Picks

Is it finally the end for Tom Brady & Co.? (photo credit: Jennifer Long, Kansas City Star)

The Patriots' recent run of dominance is well-documented.  Since 2003, they've won every single AFC East Title except for 2008, when Tom Brady went down in week 1 with a season-ending injury.  They've won 10 games all 11 years of that stretch (even going 11-5 the year Brady was out under Matt Cassel) and 12 games 8 out of the 11 years.  To put that in perspective, from a Pythagorean expectation perspective, having a .750 winning percentage is equivalent to scoring twice as many points as you allow.

This blog -- along with 16 out of 16 ESPN national contributors -- picked New England to repeat as division champions this season.

It's been an incredible run, but 2014, as we've all seen, has been unkind.  When Brady threw a pick-6 while trying to somehow bring his team back from a 34-7 deficit in the 4th quarter in Kansas City, it may have been the end of an era.  New England lacks the blocking and tackling -- to say nothing of things like receiver separation and, yes, quarterback play -- to be considered an elite football team.  Our friends at Football Outsiders dropped them from 8th to 23rd in their DVOA rankings in just a week.

The other problem for Pats fans?  They're playing an elite football team Sunday night, one that's the best team in the NFL according to DVOA and one that's coming off a bye.



Our lock of the week is the Bengals -1 over the Patriots on Sunday night.  The idea that the Pats are that much better after a loss vs. a win is mostly a myth -- their win percentage after wins is about as good as their win percentage after losses.  That's what happens when you win 70% of your games over an 11 year stretch.  This is a pick based on the relative talent of the teams, plus the idea that Gillette Stadium might turn into a ghost town if the Pats get down 14-0.

With a lot of ground to make up on the Junk Food Guy, I present the rest of the Week 5 slate:

TONIGHT (unscored)
Vikings + 8.5 over PACKERS: Although this one could absolutely be a tight game that Green Bay wins by 10.

SUNDAY 1 P.M.
PANTHERS - 3 over Bears: Panthers not as bad as they've looked the past two weeks, Bears might be as bad as they looked on Sunday.

Browns +2 over TITANS: Remember that time JFG and I were both high on Jake Locker?

Rams + 7 over Eagles: Hard to lay 7 given the current state of the Philadelphia offense.

GIANTS -4 over Falcons: This is easy - take Atlanta at home, go against them on the road.

Bucs + 10.5 over SAINTS: Too many points.

Texans + 6 over COWBOYS: Cowboys due for a let down.  Texans' d isn't the Saints'.

Bills + 7 over LIONS: Kyle Orton to the rescue!

Ravens + 3.5 over COLTS: This line doesn't make sense.  Should be Colts by 3 at the absolute max.

JAGUARS +6 over Steelers: Not sure either team is very good.

SUNDAY 4 P.M.

Cardinals +7 over BRONCOS: Both are off a bye.  We'll find out how good Arizona really is.

Chiefs +6 over NINERS: Wow, this is a lot of underdogs.

Jets + 6.5 over CHARGERS: San Diego looked vulnerable at times against Blake Bortles.

Seahawks - 7.5 over REDSKINS: The Kirk Cousins experiement is going badly.

As always, enjoy the games!

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