Guest Article: Fantasy Rookie RBs

We're pleased to post this guest article from our friends at FanDuel.com!

Ball, Lacy And Bell All Poised For Solid Rookie Campaigns

The 2013 NFL Draft certainly paled in comparison to last season, but there are still plenty of young players who will step in and start right away. From a fantasy perspective, a lot of these starters will be at non-skill positions, which means next to nothing to them. However, three running backs seem poised to have great 2013 seasons as the featured running back for their team. How will Montee Ball, Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell do as rookies?

Montee Ball (Denver Broncos)

After being a workhorse at Wisconsin, Ball will step into a nice situation in Denver. The Broncos, with Peyton Manning at the helm, are always going to be a pass-first team, but Ball can step in right away to provide value on the ground. Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno, the two guys who received a lot of running opportunities for Denver last year, are both injured, so it is Ball’s position to win. Durability for the long term is a concern for Ball, but as a rookie, he should be the top running back option.

Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)

Many thought that Lacy would be taken in the first round by the Packers, but the team took a gamble and it paid off. He lasted until the second round, mostly due to the fact that some teams are worried about his injury history. In Green Bay, he won’t be asked to do a ton, but he can both run and catch the ball with ease for a lot of fantasy football 2013 value. Aaron Rodgers enjoys having a running back who can catch a few passes, so expect him to have a solid all-around campaign.

Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Last season, the Steelers had a terrible time trying to find the right type of running game. Bell will get his opportunity to be a featured back, but if he can’t get it done, it could be a somewhat short stint for the former Michigan State running back. The Steelers, like the other two teams mentioned in this article, have a franchise quarterback, so Bell will not have to do a ton. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman could still earn the starting spot as well, so that is why he can’t be any higher than third right now.

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Week 11 Preview and Picks

Cheer up, Raiders fan.  A win over the lowly Raiders mean more to a team than a win over a contender.

With the calendar turning to mid-November and most of the playoff field largely-decided, we turn for a moment this week to the NFL’s grand prize, the Lombardi trophy.  A decade ago, one could correctly point to a playoff bye as a key step to a Super Bowl title.  A team who only needed to win two games to make the Super Bowl (at least one of which would be at home) would only be helped, the thinking went, by the extra week of rest.  But the importance of getting a bye has proven less and less important since 2005, as 5 of the last 7 Super Bowl champs (and 4 of the last 5) were playing during Wild Card Weekend.

The most important factor, experts say?  How a team plays down the stretch.  Since we’re not “down the stretch,” yet, we obviously can’t assess that for 2012, so we’ll table it for six weeks.  Instead, we’ll look at another piece of conventional wisdom: that Super Bowl-contending teams typically blow out crappy teams, something that has absolutely held true in the past 10 years.  Some facts after the jump:

Week 9 Preview and Picks

Cam Newton's Panthers have as many wins as he has fingers up,
but that's likely to change in the second half of the season

Our new layout and avatar lasted all of a week.  Last week, we looked at the best- and worst-case scenarios for newly-appointed Chiefs starting QB Brady Quinn, whose picture adorned the side of this blog and served as our Twitter avatar.  Quinn’s line in his start against Oakland?  2-for-4 for 1 yard, 1 interception, and 1 head injury.  Yikes.  Matt Cassel returns to the starting lineup tonight, and Brady Quinn returns to the top of the webpage (albeit with a friend whose wardrobe we detailed here).

As we hit the midpoint of the 2012 NFL season, we look at teams who have deviated significantly from their early season performance.  More than a few have started out either hot or cold and currently resemble a far different team than they did in weeks 1-3.  A deeper dive after the jump.

Week 8 Preview and Picks

Romeo, would you like to buy a pronoun?

Chiefs Head Coach Romeo Crennel announced Monday that he was replacing starting quarterback Matt Cassel – he of the 6-year, $63 million contract – with former first-rounder and, until this week, the face of this blog, one Brayden Tyler Quinn.  (As you can see, we’ve changed our avatar to reflect that Quinn is, in fact, no longer a backup QB).  Crennel opened a competition the week before last – a move lambasted by many but supported by, among others, our friends at Caught Looking -- and announced this week that Quinn would be the starter for the forseeable future.

Crennel’s rationale:

“I felt like the most impactful move I could make to get everybody’s attention was to change the quarterback.  I think that will get everybody’s attention, and hopefully that impacts the team because the quarterback position is the one that has the spotlight on him . . .

We need to coach better and we need to play better, and if we do things, we can be better, but my biggest deal was my gut was telling me we need to impact that team by changing that dynamic.”

Right on, Romeo.  Not sure we had a coherent English sentence in there, but the read I’m getting is that you want to shake things up for your 1-5 football team.  Fair enough.

Does this ever work?  After the jump, we had a look at the value of quarterback continuity over the past 2 seasons.

Week 6 Preview and Picks

"No, Coach Haley, I can't believe the BQB has us in the playoffs either . . ."

Pittsburgh looked like garbage last night in their 26-23 loss to lowly Tennessee.  Yesterday, we predicted the Steelers win but not cover the 6-point spread, which might have been true had Mike Tomlin not turned into Strom Thurmond with his conservative play-calling during the Steelers’ two-minute drill.  Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham (nicknamed “Po Sweezy” by his teammates) had hit a career-long 52-yarder earlier in the fourth quarter.  So Tomlin trotted him out there for a 54-yarder with 50 seconds on the clock and Tennessee having used none of its timeouts.  Shockingly, Suisham’s kick came up short, and Tennessee took advantage of terrific field position to waltz down the field for Rob Bironas’ game-winner.

Steeler Nation can’t be happy about last night’s result, but there can be happy about how weak the competition looks for the AFC Wild Card especially the second one.  Entering this weekend, exactly 5 of the AFC’s 16 teams are over .500.  Which means that, barring a resurgence from one of the teams at the very bottom of the conference, (at least) one of these teams is making the playoffs:

2-2 or 2-3 Teams in the AFC

Team (record)	Best win	Road record	Point Differential
Colts (2-2)	GB	0-1	-29
Steelers (2-3)	PHI	0-3	+1
Jets (2-3)	At MIA	1-1	-34
Bills (2-3)	KC	1-2	-58
Dolphins (2-3)	At CIN	1-2	0
Broncos (2-3)	PIT	0-2	+21
TOTAL		3-11	-99

Ugh.  This list doesn’t even include Cincinnati, who, at 3-2, isn’t exactly striking fear into opponents but to has a stranglehold on the other wild card at this point.

We listed road record because it seems relevant given that one of these teams is likely to be a wild card and will likely be heading into San Diego / New England / Baltimore in round 1.  Think the Chargers, Pats, and Ravens won’t be licking their chops (not to mention gamblers looking to bet on them?).

As the last few years have proven, all you have to do is get in to make some noise (*cue Giants fans nodding*), so there’s hope for fans of all 6 of these teams.  But if this were college basketball and it were March, all you’d hear is Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas yapping about how weak the bubble was in the AFC this year and how wrong it is that Minnesota can’t get into the playoffs just because it’s in the wrong conference.

Dickie V would probably think the Vikings are getting a
RAW DEAL if one of the 2-win AFC makes the playoffs

Updated Playoff Projections

Our projections are now weighted 65/35, with preseason ratings making up 65% of our rating and Pythagorean Expectation making up the remaining 35%.

AFC

Division Champs: Texans (11.2 expected wins), Ravens (11.2), Chargers (9.5),  Patriots (8.7)

Wild Cards: Bengals (9.3), Steelers (8.6)

Out: Jets (8.2), Broncos (7.1); In: Patriots, Steelers

NFC

Division Champs: Niners (13.6), Falcons (12.4), Bears (12.3), Eagles (9.8)

Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.0), Packers (9.4)

No changes from last week

WEEK 6 PICKS

Nothing new this week in terms of analyses.  We do need to do a refresh for injuries, as teams like the Jets, who have lost Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes for the season, should have their ratings discounted as a result.  But in the interest of getting this out by press time, we haven’t included those effects yet.  As in the past two weeks, we are giving 1.5 points’ of credit to the four teams coming off a bye (Cowboys, Raiders, Bucs, and Lions) and another 1.2 points to the two teams playing at home in primetime (Chargers and Texans).

For some reason, we like a lot of home teams this week.  That seems to be just a coincidence, home advantage is just as strong as it always is (2.6 points).

LAST WEEK: 6-8 against the spread, 8-6 outright

THIS WEEK: 1-0 against the spread, 0-1 outright

SEASON: 40-34-4 against the spread (.541), 51-27 overall (.654)

(picks in order of confidence, outright winner in parentheses)

SEAHAWKS +3.5 over Patriots (Seahawks)

JETS -3 over Colts (Jets)

CHARGERS -1 over Broncos (Chargers)

NINERS -6.5 over Giants (Niners)

REDSKINS -1.5 over Vikings (Redskins)

BUCS -4 over Chiefs (Bucs)

CARDINALS -4.5 over Bills (Cardinals)

Packers +3 over TEXANS (Texans)

RAVENS -3.5 over Cowboys (Ravens)

Bengals -2 over BROWNS (Bengals)

DOLPHINS -4 over Rams (Dolphins)

Lions +3 over EAGLES (Eagles)

Raiders +9 over FALCONS (Falcons)

Note: Shout-out to Brady Quinn, who will relinquish his backup duties and get the start on Sunday.  If he keeps the job, we might have to change our avatar . . .

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Week 5 Preview and Picks

Vikings fans have come a long way from the dog days of Moss and Culpepper

First things first: we couldn't have been more wrong about last night's pick.  Here's hoping Kevin Kolb still has all of his limbs attached after getting sacked nine times last night.

Onward to the rest of the week, where we pause to look at a surprise juggernaut in Minneapolis.  The Vikings quietly sit tied with the Bears atop the NFC North standings with a 3-1 record.  Among those chiefly responsible for their ascent?  QB Christian Ponder, who ranks 10th in ESPN's Total QBR ratings, ahead of Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, among others.  Ponder was 29th in last year's rankings and is a big reason for Minnesota's turnaround.

Our preseason model didn't think much of Minnesota, projecting only 1.7 wins, a total they nearly doubled in September alone, and we had them worst in the NFC in free agency.  But those rankings only took into account performance to date, not potential, and we knew the Vikings would be going with a youth movement this year.  We called out their young / inexperienced starting guards, Brandon Fusco and Charlie Johnson, calling the guard position a "potential nightmare" this year.  The 2 have performed admirably; Minnesota has the #6-ranked offensive line in the league on the run and is in the middle of the pack in the rare instances they throw the ball.  Sometimes your young players perform, sometimes they don't.  The former appears true so far in Minnesota, with Fusco, Johnson, and Ponder leading the way.

How long might the fun continue in the great white north?  While no one (ourselves included) is picking Minnesota to outlast Green Bay or Chicago, the schedule appears friendly in the near term:

Week 5: TITANS (1-3)
Week 6: at Redskins (2-2)
Week 7: CARDINALS (4-1)
Week 8: BUCS (3-1)
Week 9: at Seahawks (2-2)
Week 10: LIONS (1-3)

Minnesota could have trouble with any of the 5, but none stand out as a clear loss.  Is it so crazy to think the Vikes will go 4-2 over this stretch and be sitting at 7-3 with 6 games to play?

The bye follows week 10 and, with it, the Vikings may well fall back to earth -- their 6-game stretch run includes 2 games apiece against Chicago and Green Bay as well as road games in St. Louis and Houston.  So enjoy it while it lasts, Vikings fans.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
For those scoring at home, we're weighting our preseason projections at 73%, and season-to-date Pythagorean performance at 27% (note: we're debating bringing down the preseason weighting at a faster clip going forward).  As always, expected wins are in parentheses.

AFC Division Champs: Ravens (10.4), Texans (10.4), Chargers (9.9), Jets (9.0)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.7), Broncos (8.8)
New to the field: Broncos; Dropped out: Bills (7.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.1), Falcons (11.9), Bears (11.3), Eagles (9.8)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.0), Packers (10.3)
No changes since last week

DO TEAMS PLAY BETTER AFTER THE BYE?
A few of the lines looked a bit off this week -- particularly the 1-2 Steelers, who are 3 point favorites at home against 3-1 Philadelphia.  A lot of the pundits assessing this game cite that the Steelers are coming off a bye and will likely be with the services of Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Rashard Mendenhall, none of whom have suited up this year.

Isn't great that we've got a bye this week?  ISN'T IT!?

In this instance, it's clear the bye week helps the Steelers.  Conventional wisdom holds that in general, regardless of a team's injury situation, it does better after a bye.  We sought to set that theory, along with the corollary -- if it does, has Vegas caught on?

We looked at every game played since 2008 where one team was coming off a bye and the other was not.  There were 111 such games.  58 times the team coming off the bye played at home, 53 on the road.  Teams win games by an average of 2.5 points, so we would have expected teams coming off the bye to win by a very small amount -- it turns out to be 0.1 points.  In reality, teams coming off a bye won by an average of 1.6 points, implying a 1.5 point benefit from coming off a bye.

So, has Vegas caught on yet?  Somewhat.  In the same set of games, the team coming off the bye was favored by an average of 0.6 points.  So Vegas gave them an extra half point, when in reality they should be giving them an extra 1.5 points.

The result?  Teams coming off a bye are 59-47-5 against the spread since 2008, good for 55.7%.  It's not a slam-dunk by any stretch, but there does appear to be some value, all things equal, in picking teams after a bye.  Good news for the Colts and Steelers this week, both of whom got a 1.5-point bump when we crunched the numbers for our picks this week.

WEEK 5 PICKS
Our model still doesn't think all that much of the Texans, Vikings, and Patriots, and that's reflected in our picks below.  The Jets, despite all their injuries, may represent Houston's toughest test to date.  A resounding win at MetLife Stadium will go a long way toward convincing us that the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

LAST WEEK: 7-8 against the spread, 11-4 outright
SEASON: 33-26-4 against the spread (.559), 43-20 overall (.717)
THIS WEEK: 0-1 against the spread, 0-1 outright

(in order of confidence, outright winner in parentheses):

JETS +9 over Texans (Jets)
Titans +5.5 over VIKINGS (Titans)
Broncos +6.5 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)
SAINTS -3.5 over Chargers (Saints)
CHIEFS +6 over Ravens (Ravens)
Browns + 8.5 over GIANTS (Giants)
BENGALS -3 over Dolphins (Bengals)
COLTS +7 over Packers (Packers)
PANTHERS -3 over Seahawks (Panthers)
STEELERS -3 over Eagles (Steelers)
REDSKINS +3 over Falcons (Falcons)
NINERS -9.5 over Bills (Niners)
Bears -4.5 over JAGUARS (Bears)

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Week 1 Recap / Week 2 Preview

Alex Smith, unsung hero in the Niners' impressive 30-22 Week 1 victory over Green Bay

WEEK 1 RECAP

Our season preview ruffled some feathers last week, especially in Massachusetts.  Let's take a quick look at where we hit and where we missed base on week 1's results.

Where we were right: Niners, Jets, Cardinals, Bears

Niners: Our projections had San Francisco winning a whopping 14 games this year and winning the Super Bowl, and beating the Packers at Lambeau went a long way toward cementing them as one of the NFL's elite teams.  Most of the hype was about the defense -- the Packers had only 7 points in the first 3 quarters -- and the Niners' 186 yards on the ground.  Not enough is being said about QB Alex Smith who had an incredibly efficient line of 20/26, 211 yards, 2 TDs, no picks, and a passer rating of 125.6.  Smith's ESPN QBR was 8th in the league last week.  Last year, he was 22nd and the Niners were a fumble away from the NFC Title Game.  If he can remain a top 10 quarterback in the league, watch out.  Look for San Fran to continue their dominance against Detroit, who looked rather pedestrian in a home win against St. Louis last week.

Jets: Remember the preseason when the Jets scored one offensive touchdown?  So much for that.  The offense looked pristine against an admittedly-overmatched Bills defense in putting up 48 points, the most by a Jets team since week 4 of the 2008 season, when Brett Favre put up a 56 spot on an Arizona defense that ended up going to the Super Bowl.  (That was a weird sentence to write.)  Much was written this offseason about the Jets lack of offensive weapons -- specifically a #2 WR.  Through a week, rookie Stephen Hill and journeyman Jeremy Kerley seem more than up to the task.  They face a tougher challenge in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Cardinals: It was ugly, and it barely involved John Skelton, but Arizona got a win they had to have if they're going to compete this year.  As expected, the Cards defense was solid, holding Seattle and rookie QB Russell Wilson to a single touchdown.  New QB Kevin Kolb is probably the more talented QB than Skelton, and for now, we're not budging from our 10-win prediction from the Cardinals.

Bears: If Brandon Marshall could catch, the Bears' 41-21 might have been even more lopsided.  As expected, the Bears took care of business against #1 overall pick Andrew Luck and the Colts.  As expected, the reuniting of Jay Cutler and Marshall proved potent, with the two hooking up 9 times for 119 yards and a TD, even with all the drops.  Huge game tonight for Chicago -- if they can get a win, they'll open up a 2 game lead on Green Bay with the tiebreak, and will be in good position to cruise into the bye week (next 3 games: home for St. Louis, at Dallas, at Jacksonville, then the bye).

Where we were wrong: Patriots, Saints, Steelers, Broncos

Patriots: The Pats' 3-touchdown win over Tennessee was even more lopsided than the score indicates.  New England's tight ends create matchup problems our model doesn't adequately capture, and if Stevan Ridley is going to be as good as he looked in week 1, New England could be as good as the rest of the public thinks they'll be.  I also have to note that the Pats draft picks -- we ranked their draft worst in the NFL -- came through in a big way on Sunday.  Even "worst pick in the draft" Tavon Wilson had an interception.  Maybe Bill Belichick & Co. are just that good as talent evaluators.

Saints: So much for Bountygate rallying the Saints, who stumbled to their first loss at the Superdome since 2010 in the stunner of the week.  RG3's debut was the big story here, but the porous Saints' D looked as bad as ever, and mental mistakes plagued New Orleans all day (not a shocker given that they had their interim interim head coach at the helm).  Big divisional road game for New Orleans at Carolina this week.

Steelers / Broncos: This game was tighter than the 31-19 final score indicated, but you really can't say enough about Peyton Manning.  Every other writer / blogger has gushed about Manning so we won't do so here, except to note the success he had in Indianapolis with an otherwise-average team: from 2002 to 2010, the Colts won 10 games every year and qualified for the playoffs every year.  Denver's D is better than Indy's ever was.  If Denver can keep Manning upright, they might be more of a force than we thought in a weak AFC West.

As for Pittsburgh, our other Conference runner up (along with the Saints), the defense looked like it was missing 3 starters from last year (James Farrior, William Gay, and Ryan Clark).  We'll see if they're able to have any success against the Sanchez/Tebow combo in what suddenly becomes a big home game this week.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Every week, we'll update our playoff projections by revamping our expected wins calculation each week:

1. Project the rest of the season: Use our preseason rankings (85% weight) and a team's Pythagorean expectation from this season (15% weight) -- we'll amend those weightings as the season goes on (skewing away from preseason rankings) to get expected wins for the next 15 games

2. Add number of wins so far (in this case, 1 if the team won last week, 0 if they lost)

Using the Jets as an example:

Initial rating: 10.9
Pythagorean expectation based on 48-28 win: 48^2 / (48^2 + 28^2) = 0.75*16 = 11.9
New expected wins (16 games): 11.1 (10.9 x 85% + 11.9 x 15%)
New expected wins (15 games, since 1 is already played): 10.4 (11.1 x 15 / 16)
Wins so far: 1
New expected wins: 10.4 + 1 = 11.4

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Jets (11.4 wins), Ravens (11.2), Chargers (10.0), Texans (8.5)
AFC Wild Card: Steelers (9.0), Patriots (8.4)
Added: Texans, Patriots  Dropped out: Bengals (8.1), Titans (6.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Saints (12.0), Bears (12.0), Eagles (11.7)
NFC Wild Card: Falcons (10.9), Cardinals (10.8)
Added: Falcons  Dropped out: Packers (10.6)

WEEK 2 PREVIEW

We live in a world of instant reaction (or, if you prefer, instant overreaction), and with 5 20+ victories in week 1, followers of the NFL are no different.  In recent years, however, we've seen a big reversion to the mean in week 2 with blowout winners in week 1.  In fact, teams that won their opening game by 20 points or more are just 1-6 against the spread in week 2 since 2009 and just 2-5 outright.  This implies that spreads move big time based on the first week's results -- maybe too much.

The 5 big winners last week were the Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears, and Ravens.  Just 2 are favorites (Patriots and Texans) in week 2.  Our picks project that trend to largely continue; of the 5 big winners last week, we only have the Jets covering the spread.

Maybe the Pats will get points if Gronk successfully completes a spike this week.  They might need
them to cover the 2 touchdown spread against Arizona.

WEEK 2 PICKS, in order of confidence:
Cardinals + 13.5 over PATRIOTS
Bucs + 7 over GIANTS
BENGALS -7 over Browns
FALCONS -3 over Broncos
NINERS -7 over Lions
EAGLES -1 over Ravens
Saints -3 over PANTHERS
BILLS -3 over Chiefs
COLTS +1.5 over Vikings
DOLPHINS +1 over Raiders
Redskins -3 over RAMS
JAGUARS +7 over Texans
CHARGERS -6 over Titans
Jets + 5.5 over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS +3 over Cowboys
PACKERS -4.5 over Bears

Last week: 9-7

Enjoy Week 2.  See you next week.

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Assessing Offseason Movement for All 16 AFC Teams

Even with these guys at the helm, Jets fans should be happy with their offseason

Last night's season opener marked the end of one streak and the continuation of another.  The Giants became the defending champ to lose the season opener in prime time, breaking a streak of 8 years in a row. In a related story, the Backup Quarterback got knocked out in his Suicide Pool in week 1 for the 3rd year in a row.  The Giants sure seemed like a sure thing, so I blame the fact that the game was on a Wednesday rather than a Thursday.  At least Floyd Mayweather made some money betting on the second half.

While watching last night's game, the BQB finished up his AFC offseason player movement rankings.  Several AFC teams got their own posts throughout the offseason (including the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Browns, and Bills).  Following final cuts, we had to re-run the numbers, so some of the outlooks have changed.

Groundrules for this post:

1. We're considering non-rookie player movement only.  Draft picks are covered here.

2. Each player gets a value ascribed to him, based on the AV formula from our friends at Pro Football Reference:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

3. If a player was on a team's roster the previous season and is no longer on that roster this season, that represents value "lost" for the team.  If a player is on the roster this season and was not on the roster last season, that represents value "gained" for the team.  It doesn't matter how they got there -- free agency, trade, waivers, whatever.

4. Net value represents value gained minus value lost.

5. A player's value is all that matters here.  Their salary, what a team got in return for that player via trade, intangibles, etc. aren't considered.

6. These obviously aren't the be-all and end-all of our season projections (coming soon), but they are a component of them.

So who had the best offseason in the AFC?  The answer surprised us . . .

Assessing Ron Jaworski's QB Rankings

Jaws released his ranking of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month

ESPN analyst and former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski completed his much-hyped list of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month when he named Aaron Rodgers the top QB in football.

Jaws based his a lot of his opinion on the "eye test," or what he saw in a player from watching film.  This is totally appropraite given Jaws' background as an NFL QB, as he's well-positioned to assess a player's technique or prowess in a particular aspect of football (playing against the rush, checking down, throwing the deep ball, etc.).  Nonetheless, we thought it might be interesting to compare his rankings to the weighted AV ratings we've been using in our team previews.  As a reminder, those ratings are based on on the yearly AV metric from our friends at Pro Football Reference, using the following formula:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

You can see the two rankings side-by-side after the jump.