The Week 1 Picks

Worry not Jags fans, the Blaine is gone, and you might even cover a double digit spread this week!

Junk Food Guy and I have agreed to terms.  We're picking every non-Thursday night game against the spread every week.  Lines are from MGM/Mirage in Vegas (via VegasInsider) at the time of publishing. Every game is worth one point, except for our "Lock of the Week," which is worth 5.

The contest pits a Bills fan and a Steelers fan, so the loser has to wear this horrific shirt to a Super Bowl party this year.  So there's that.

2013 BQB Mock Draft Challenge

We're back with a preview of the 2013 NFL Draft, which starts tonight at New York's Radio City Music Hall.  Last year, we graded 7 mock drafts and our friend Peter King came out on top.  This year, we'll look at the same set of mock drafts from last year, with two changes -- Mike Mayock replaces Charley Casserly (who, as of this writing, hasn't updated a mock draft in a few days), and Kash Money, last year's last place finisher, drops out, as he (she?) doesn't appear to have published a mock draft this year.

Let's meet the mock drafters:

Week 9 Preview and Picks

Cam Newton's Panthers have as many wins as he has fingers up,
but that's likely to change in the second half of the season

Our new layout and avatar lasted all of a week.  Last week, we looked at the best- and worst-case scenarios for newly-appointed Chiefs starting QB Brady Quinn, whose picture adorned the side of this blog and served as our Twitter avatar.  Quinn’s line in his start against Oakland?  2-for-4 for 1 yard, 1 interception, and 1 head injury.  Yikes.  Matt Cassel returns to the starting lineup tonight, and Brady Quinn returns to the top of the webpage (albeit with a friend whose wardrobe we detailed here).

As we hit the midpoint of the 2012 NFL season, we look at teams who have deviated significantly from their early season performance.  More than a few have started out either hot or cold and currently resemble a far different team than they did in weeks 1-3.  A deeper dive after the jump.

Assessing Offseason Movement for All 16 AFC Teams

Even with these guys at the helm, Jets fans should be happy with their offseason

Last night's season opener marked the end of one streak and the continuation of another.  The Giants became the defending champ to lose the season opener in prime time, breaking a streak of 8 years in a row. In a related story, the Backup Quarterback got knocked out in his Suicide Pool in week 1 for the 3rd year in a row.  The Giants sure seemed like a sure thing, so I blame the fact that the game was on a Wednesday rather than a Thursday.  At least Floyd Mayweather made some money betting on the second half.

While watching last night's game, the BQB finished up his AFC offseason player movement rankings.  Several AFC teams got their own posts throughout the offseason (including the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Browns, and Bills).  Following final cuts, we had to re-run the numbers, so some of the outlooks have changed.

Groundrules for this post:

1. We're considering non-rookie player movement only.  Draft picks are covered here.

2. Each player gets a value ascribed to him, based on the AV formula from our friends at Pro Football Reference:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

3. If a player was on a team's roster the previous season and is no longer on that roster this season, that represents value "lost" for the team.  If a player is on the roster this season and was not on the roster last season, that represents value "gained" for the team.  It doesn't matter how they got there -- free agency, trade, waivers, whatever.

4. Net value represents value gained minus value lost.

5. A player's value is all that matters here.  Their salary, what a team got in return for that player via trade, intangibles, etc. aren't considered.

6. These obviously aren't the be-all and end-all of our season projections (coming soon), but they are a component of them.

So who had the best offseason in the AFC?  The answer surprised us . . .

The New Coach Bump? A look at the chances of success for the 7 new Head Coaches

Will any of this year's new head coaches enjoy the success Coach Boone did in his first season?

Hope springs anew in 7 NFL cities this fall.  Fans in Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Oakland, and Indianapolis are convinced that their new coach is the one to lead them to a Lombardi Trophy or, at the very least, that he has to be better than that clown they just fired.  But are these new coaches any more likely to see success than their predecessors?

After the jump, a look at how the 65 first-year head coaches since 2002 have fared in their first season, and what it means for the 7 teams who made coaching changes for this season.

Draft Wrap: Quick Hits

Time for Mel to go back into hibernation for the next 361 days

A few quick hits to wrap up our draft coverage.  Also, if you missed it check out the rest of our coverage this week, including:

- The best and worst case scenarios for #1 overall pick Andrew Luck (Thursday)
- Our draft rankings, 1 through 32 (Monday)
- Grading the mock drafts (Monday)
- How the Seahawks (Monday) and Browns (Tuesday) screwed up
- The best and worst picks of every round

NFL Network Online: The NFL Is Always On, Don't Miss A Moment - 7 Day Free Trial.

Draft Preview: The Ryan Tannehill Factor and Why Jacksonville Should Think Hard About Trading Down

Welcome to the inaugural post of The Backup Quarterback Blog.  This site’s mission is to provide NFL analysis from the perspective of the objective NFL fan.  Our first topic?  The NFL Draft, which starts Thursday night and runs through Saturday.  ESPN is already hyping its coverage ad nauseam, with Cee Lo Green’s “Bright Lights Big City” evidently playing the role of “song ESPN will beat to death."  Here’s hoping Cee Lo shows up at Radio City Music Hall to meet Roger Goodell in his Super Bowl outfit.

After the jump:

• A look at 7 mock drafts and how everyone's afraid to be different
• The Ryan Tannehill phenomenon, who might trade up for him and with whom
• The historic nature of QBs in this draft

NFL Network Online: The NFL Is Always On, Don't Miss A Moment - 7 Day Free Trial.