The Official Backup Quarterback Blog 2012 Season Predictions

Patrick Willis: the most important player on the BQB's Super Bowl pick

At long last, football starts on Sunday.  We at the BQB are psyched, not the least of which because we just switched to DirecTV and will feast on 9 -- 9! -- 1 o'clock games on Sunday via their NFL Sunday Ticket package.

Also at long last, the culmination of our offseason work: our 2012 season predictions.  We took all the relevant info we looked at during the season, put it together, and voila -- projected records for our 32 teams.  Here's how we did it:

1. Expected wins: We started with a team's expected wins from 2011, as determined by Pythagorean expectation.
2. New coaches get a bump: Since teams with new coaches typically see a bump of 1.5 wins the following year, we added 1.5 wins to the 7 teams who changed coaches this year.
3. Draft: We rated every team's draft, normalized those rankings to a 0 to 100 scale, and added or subtracted wins based on how they drafted (up to a cap of +/- 2, so the best team gained 2 wins and the worst team lost 2 wins).
4. Offseason: We assessed offseason movement (non-rookies) for each team (AFC and NFC), normalized those, and added or subtracted wins based on where they fell (the cap here was +/- 4)
5. Preseason: The preseason barely matters, but it seems to matter a little when teams go undefeated or winless; if a team went undefeated, we added a win, if it went winless, we subtracted one.
6. Schedule: We took the result of the first 5 steps, used it to run teams head-to-head (home advantage = 1 game), then took the weighted average of:
     - The original projected wins # (75%) and
     - Number of wins when you run the schedule (25%)

We then normalized the records so that, in total, teams would go 256-256 (since every game must be won or lost).

Disclaimer: We realize this isn't the be-all and end-all of projections, and that they're fairly quantitative and not at all subjective.  Having said that, we got some reasonable results in spots and, perhaps most notably, have 6 repeat playoff teams and 6 new playoff teams, about the average over the past 10 years.

After the jump, our ratings, predictions, and week 1 picks!



First, the raw ratings for all 32 teams based on the metrics we used:

	Team	’11 W-L	’11 Expected Wins	New coach?	Draft rating  (0-100)	Offseason rating  (0-100)	Preseason: Undefeated or Winless?
AFC East
1	Patriots	13-3	11.1	No	0	23	-
2	Jets	8-8	8.3	No	74	73	Winless
3	Bills	6-10	6.8	No	58	68	Winless
4	Dolphins	6-10	8.4	Yes	76	0	Winless
AFC North
1	Ravens	12-4	10.7	No	76	26	-
2	Steelers	12-4	10.8	No	42	44	-
3	Bengals	9-7	8.5	No	100	39	-
4	Browns	4-12	5.4	No	23	46	-
AFC South
1	Texans	10-6	10.4	No	39	13	-
2	Titans	9-7	8.2	No	68	42	-
3	Jaguars	5-11	5.6	Yes	10	53	-
4	Colts	2-14	3.9	Yes	83	5	-
AFC West
1	Broncos	8-8	6.2	No	32	70	-
2	Chargers	8-8	8.6	No	67	47	-
3	Raiders	8-8	6.5	Yes	47	21	-
4	Chiefs	7-9	4.5	Yes	52	53	-

	Team	’11 W-L	’11 Expected Wins	New coach?	Draft rating  (0-100)	Offseason rating  (0-100)	Preseason: Undefeated or Winless?
NFC East
1	Giants	9-7	7.9	No	59	26	-
2	Eagles	8-8	9.5	No	89	43	Undefeated
3	Cowboys	8-8	8.5	No	55	42	-
4	Redskins	5-11	6.1	No	57	56	-
NFC North
1	Packers	11-5	11.3	No	64	57	-
2	Lions	10-6	9.6	No	48	51	-
3	Bears	8-8	8.3	No	31	100	-
4	Vikings	3-13	5.8	No	53	4	-
NFC South
1	Saints	13-3	11.6	No	57	73	-
2	Falcons	10-6	9.1	No	43	72	-
3	Panthers	6-10	7.6	No	73	69	-
4	Bucs	4-12	4.0	Yes	68	80	-
NFC West
1	Niners	13-3	11.7	No	65	78	-
2	Cardinals	8-8	7.1	No	74	84	-
3	Seahawks	7-9	8.2	No	4	53	Undefeated
4	Rams	2-14	2.9	Yes	45	36	-

Next, expected wins based on the metrics above (playoff teams in yellow):

	Team	’11 W-L	’11 Expected Wins	Coach bump	Draft bump	Offseason bump	Preseason bump	Unwgtd ’12 Expected Wins	Final Est. Wins (Schedule-Adjusted)
AFC East
1	Jets	8-8	8.3	-	+1.0	+1.8	-1.0	10.1	10.9
2	Bills	6-10	6.8	-	+0.3	+1.5	-1.0	7.6	8.0
3	Patriots	13-3	11.1	-	-2.0	-2.2	-	6.9	6.8
4	Dolphins	6-10	8.4	+1.5	+1.0	-4.0	-1.0	5.9	5.6
AFC North
1	Steelers	12-4	10.8	-	+1.0	-1.9	-	9.9	10.5
2	Ravens	12-4	10.7	-	-0.3	-0.4	-	9.9	10.2
3	Bengals	9-7	8.5	-	+2.0	-0.9	-	9.6	10.0
4	Browns	4-12	5.4	-	-1.1	-0.4	-	3.9	2.9
AFC South
1	Titans	9-7	8.2	-	+0.7	+0.6	-	8.3	8.3
2	Texans	10-6	10.4	-	-0.4	-2.9	-	7.0	6.9
3	Jaguars	5-11	5.6	+1.5	-1.6	+0.3	-	5.8	4.9
4	Colts	2-14	3.9	+1.5	+1.3	-3.6	-	3.1	2.8
AFC West
1	Chargers	8-8	8.6	-	+0.7	-0.2	-	9.0	9.3
2	Broncos	8-8	6.2	-	-0.7	+1.6	-	7.1	6.4
3	Chiefs	7-9	4.5	+1.5	+0.1	+0.2	-	6.3	5.9
4	Raiders	8-8	6.5	+1.5	-0.1	-2.3	-	5.6	4.8
NFC East
1	Eagles	8-8	9.5	-	+1.5	-0.6	+1.0	11.5	11.9
2	Cowboys	8-8	8.5	-	+0.2	-0.6	-	8.1	7.4
3	Redskins	5-11	6.1	-	+0.3	+0.5	-	6.9	6.0
4	Giants	9-7	7.9	-	+0.4	-1.9	-	6.3	5.1
NFC North
1	Packers	11-5	11.3	-	+0.6	+0.6	-	12.4	12.3
2	Bears	8-8	8.3	-	-0.8	+4.0	-	11.5	11.6
3	Lions	10-6	9.6	-	-0.1	+0.1	-	9.6	9.2
4	Vikings	3-13	5.8	-	+0.1	-3.6	-	2.3	1.7
NFC South
1	Saints	13-3	11.6	-	+0.3	+1.8	-	13.7	14.0
2	Falcons	10-6	9.1	-	-0.3	1.7	-	10.5	10.4
3	Panthers	6-10	7.6	-	+0.9	+1.5	-	10.0	9.8
4	Bucs	4-12	4.0	+1.5	+0.7	+2.4	-	8.6	8.3
NFC West
1	Niners	13-3	11.7	-	+0.6	+2.2	-	14.5	14.3
2	Cardinals	8-8	7.1	-	+1.0	+2.7	-	10.8	10.6
3	Seahawks	7-9	8.2		-1.8	+0.2	+1.0	7.6	7.0
4	Rams	2-14	2.9	+1.5	-0.2	-1.1	-	3.1	2.5

Wild Card Round:

Chargers over Bengals, Ravens over Titans, Eagles over Bears, Packers over Cardinals

Divisional Round:

Steelers over Chargers, Jets over Ravens, Niners over Eagles, Saints over Packers

Conference Championships:

Jets over Steelers, Niners over Saints

Super Bowl XLVII:

Niners over Jets

A few notes:

1. As we noted earlier, we have 6 returning playoff teams (Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Saints, Niners), and 6 new ones (Jets, Titans, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Cardinals).  This is the average since the NFL went to 12 playoff teams.

2. I'm sure we'll get a ton of backlash from Patriots and Giants fans.  The Giants simply weren't that good last year by the numbers (sub-.500 by expected wins), got significantly worse via free agency, and have to deal with the Eagles and Redskins, both of whom improved, four times this year.  

As for the Patriots, they couldn't have had a worse draft and had a poor offseason as well; their roster was raided and their main signing, Brandon Lloyd, was such a problem in Denver that they had to get rid of him season?  Sound familiar, Pats fans?  Look under "Moss, Randy" and tell me how that worked out the second time around.  It's not like the Patriots dominated last year; they really only had one quality win, and that was in the AFCCG against Baltimore, at home, and they needed a shanked field goal to avoid overtime.  It's really not that far-fetched to imagine the Pats dropping off this year.  The Jets take advantage of an otherwise weak AFC East.

3. The Titans take advantage of a terrible AFC South.  We say that 7 wins wins that division and that Tennessee will get 8.

4. We loved the Bears offseason, and it shows in our rankings.  They don't overtake the Packers for the division, but we have them at nearly 12 wins and the top wild card.

5. The Saints and Niners got stronger as far as we're concerned.  Our models don't have any way to quantify Bountygate, except to say that the Saints had a better-than-average offseason despite losing Jonathan Vilma for the year and Carl Nicks to the Bucs.  Adding LBs Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne (both with values in the 50s) should help a defense that just needs to be good enough.  And who knows, maybe a "us against the world" / "nobody believes in us" mentality surfaces after all the Bountygate backlash

As for San Francisco, well, they were the best team in the league by expected wins last year and got significantly stronger via free agency (Clark Haggans, a 16-game starter last year in Arizona, steps into an already-strong defense, and Mario Manningham and Randy Moss take a ton of pressure off Vernon Davis).  They also play in the NFC West.  Don't see too many problems with them taking the division.  We've got them at 14 wins.

6. If John Skelton can get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, could the Cardinals have some success?  Our model gives them 10.6 wins, more than their '08 Super Bowl year, when they went 9-7.  Arizona had the second-best offseason in the NFC, losing little and adding a stable of quality, value-of-20-or-more type of players.  If Skelton can keep the ship afloat, watch out for Arizona.

7. Pick the NFC for the Super Bowl.  We project 8 10-win teams in the NFC (the Falcons and Panthers get the short end of the stick) and only 3 in the AFC.  The main driver here is player movement -- more quality players went from the AFC to the NFC than the other way around (e.g. Brandon Marshall from Miami to Chicago).

If Skelton can just be a game-manager, could Arizona post a 10-win season?

So, there it is.  Bash us in the comments if you'd like.

For the week 1 picks, we simply used the formula above, added a win for home advantage, and multiplied the difference by 1.3.  (The thinking here is that the best team in the NFL would be favored over the worst team on a neutral field by 21 points, and 21/16 = 1.3.)  We'll tweak them as the season goes on.

Already lost: GIANTS -3.5 over Cowboys

Other games (in order of confidence):

TITANS +5.5 over Pats

CARDINALS + 3 over Seahawks

NINERS +5 over Packers

Dolphins + 8.5 over Texans

Bengals + 6.5 over Ravens

Steelers + 1 over Broncos

SAINTS -7.5 over Redskins

BEARS -9.5 over Colts

Chargers +1 over Raiders

LIONS -7.5 over Rams

BUCS + 2.5 over Panthers

JETS -3 over Bills

Browns +9.5 over EAGLES

Falcons -3 over CHIEFS

Jaguars + 3.5 over VIKINGS

Have a great week 1.  We'll be back next week . . .

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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