 |
| Sunday was a big day for 2 frequent targets here at the BQB, Brady Quinn (left) and Romeo Crennel |
Today, we
start with a word today about the 2 men who adorn our logo up-top, 2 career
backups who had huge days on Sunday.
First, what
can you say about Brady Quinn? Quinn, a
journeyman in every sense of the word and a legitimate bust as an early round
pick for the Cleveland Browns, delivered the fourth-best performance of any
quarterback in the league this year (according to ESPN’s Total QBR) in a 27-21
win over Carolina. On its own, that feat
is remarkable. Given the context, the
pain, suffering, and other unknowable emotions felt by everyone on the Chiefs’
sideline on Sunday, it’s downright unbelievable. And the icing on the cake? In his postgame press conference, Quinn had
the best and most eloquent sound bite I’ve heard yet about the tragedy in
Kansas City:
“The one thing people can hopefully try to
take away, I guess, is the relationships they have with people. I know when it happened, I was sitting and,
in my head, thinking what I could have done differently. When you ask someone how they are doing, do
you really mean it? When you answer
someone back how you are doing, are you really telling the truth?
We live in a society of social networks,
with Twitter pages and Facebook, and that’s fine, but we have contact with our
work associates, our family, and our friends, and it seems like half the time
we are more preoccupied with our phone and other things going on instead of the
actual relationships that we have right in front of us. Hopefully, people can learn from this and try
to actually help if someone is battling something deeper on the inside than
what they are revealing on a day-to-day basis.”
Sunday was a
very sad day, but it was Brady Quinn’s finest hour. Kudos from the BQB.
Second, a
shout-out to Charlie Batch. As good as
Quinn was on Sunday, Batch was nearly as bad the previous weekend: 3
second-half interceptions, no real scoring drives (the only offensive score for
Pittsburgh was set up by a long pass interference), and a quarterback rating of
38.7. Accordingly, few expected the
Steelers to be competitive Sunday at Baltimore with Batch at the helm. So what happens? Batch comes out, puts up relatively
pedestrian numbers (QBR of 53.1) but wills Pittsburgh to a 6-minute,
game-ending, game-winning drive to beat the Ravens. The best moment for Batch? As the clock wound to the 2 minute warning,
CBS cameras caught up delivering a legit
peptalk to the Steelers’ huddle. I can’t
find a picture of it, but it seemed all eyes were on Charlie. And if this is his swansong after an unusual
career – this is his 11th season with Pittsburgh, all as the second-
or third-string QB – it was a great way to go out.
UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Playoff
projection methodology was amended slightly for this week. Specifically, with only 4 games to go, we can
begin to take schedules into account with a little more precision. So the “expected wins” metric you see this
week is a blended average of the team’s Pythagorean expected wins (weighting
the past 4 games double) and a game-by-game assessment. Taking
New England as an example, Pythagorean expectation suggests they should
win 2.9 of their last 4 games, but if the model projects all four games against
all four opponents, it spits out 4 Patriots victories. We took the average of 2.9 and 4, which comes
out to 3.4, and with 9 wins already, the Pats are at 12.4 (9+3.4) expected wins
for the season.
AFC Projections
|
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
|
1
|
Texans (13.8 expected wins)
|
Texans (13.0)
|
Jets (10.9)
|
Texans (11-1)
|
|
2
|
Patriots (12.4)
|
Ravens (12.4)
|
Steelers (10.5)
|
Patriots (9-3)
|
|
3
|
Broncos (11.8)
|
Patriots (11.5)
|
Chargers (9.3)
|
Ravens (9-3)
|
|
4
|
Ravens (11.3)
|
Broncos (11.1)
|
Titans (8.3)
|
Broncos (9-3)
|
|
5
|
Bengals (10.4)
|
Bengals (9.2)
|
Ravens (10.2)
|
Colts (8-4)
|
|
6
|
Colts (9.3)
|
Colts (8.8)
|
Bengals (10.0)
|
Steelers (7-5)
|
No changes
to the field, but Baltimore’s loss to Pittsburgh drops it from the ranks of the
bye week teams and down to the 4 spot.
The Ravens have a huge game coming up next week against Denver that may
serve as a de-facto elimination game for a bye.
The first
team out – and the only one with any real chance of making it – is Pittsburgh
at 8.5 wins. The game-by-game
projections actually have them finishing only 1-3, with a win this week against
San Diego but road losses to Dallas and plucky Cleveland, and a loss at home to
upstart Cincinnati, whose +71 point differential over their last 4 games is
second in the league (New England is #1 at +78). Pittsburgh currently holds the head-to-head
tiebreak with the Bengals, so that Week 16 matchup will be key to deciding one
of the AFC Wild Cards. Meanwhile,
Indianapolis, with a game lead on the Steelers and Bengals and a 2-game lead in
the loss column for conference record, appears to be in very good shape. They could likely split their last 4 games
and still make the field.
NFC Projections
|
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
|
1
|
Falcons (14.2)
|
Falcons (13.0)
|
Niners (14.3)
|
Falcons (11-1)
|
|
2
|
Niners (11.0)
|
Niners (12.6)
|
Saints (14.0)
|
Niners (8-3-1)
|
|
3
|
Packers (10.60)
|
Bears (11.4)
|
Packers (12.3)
|
Packers (8-4)
|
|
4
|
Giants (9.1)
|
Giants (9.8)
|
Eagles (9.3)
|
Giants (7-5)
|
|
5
|
Bears (10.56)
|
Packers (9.9)
|
Bears (11.6)
|
Bears (8-4)
|
|
6
|
Seahawks (10.2)
|
Bucs (8.9)
|
Cardinals (10.6)
|
Seahawks (7-5)
|
Seattle’s
win over Chicago was big for 2 reasons – first, combined with Tampa Bay’s loss,
it put the Seahawks firmly in the driver’s seat of the NFC’s last playoff
spot. And second, it flipped the Bears
and Packers for the NFC North crown and our projection #3 seed. Again, those 2 teams meet next week at
Soldier Field – the winner will have a firm grasp on the division and, with
some luck, a first-round playoff bye.
As for the
NFC East, the Giants are currently in the lead by the slimmest of margins. The model projects 9.13 wins for New York,
and 9.12 wins for the upstart Washington Redskins. We’ll begin to see if Washington is for real
this week, when they host 9-3 Baltimore (the Skins are 2.5 point favorites).
WEEK 14 PICKS
LAST WEEK: 6-10 against the spread, 9-7
outright
SEASON: 92-93-1 against the spread
(.497), 117-74-1 outright (.613)
First time under .500 all season!
(picks in order of confidence against the
spread; outright winner in parentheses):
JAGUARS +3
over Jets (Jaguars)
RAIDERS +10
over Broncos (Broncos)
Ravens +2.5
over REDSKINS (Ravens)
Cardinals
+10 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks)
Titans +5
over COLTS (Colts)
PANTHERS
+3.5 over Falcons (Falcons)
NINERS -10
over Dolphins (Niners)
BENGALS -3
over Cowboys (Bengals)
Chargers +7
over STEELERS (Chargers)
VIKINGS +3
over Bears (Bears)
CHIEFS +6.5
over BROWNS (Browns)
Saints +4.5
over GIANTS (Giants)
PATRIOTS -3
over Texans (Patriots)
Rams +3 over
BILLS (Bills)
Lions +6.5
over PACKERS (Packers)
BUCS -7.5 over Eagles (Bucs)
Think we’re crazy? Think we’re brilliant? Speak up in the comments!
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