Tonight: Bengals -3

Maybe if these guys were involved . . .

The Bengals have won 4 straight.  The Dolphins have lost 4 straight.  Don't make this one harder than it is.

THE PICK: Bengals 34, Dolphins 21

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Week 8 picks

"I knew Calvin Johnson, I served with Calvin Johnson.  Mr. Bryant, you're no Calvin Johnson . . ."

LAST WEEK: 9-6 straight-up, 5-10 ATS
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 ATS
SEASON: 72-35 straight-up, 49-55-2

Cowboys + 3.5 over LIONS (Lions to win): Lions by a FG is likely.

JAGUARS + 16.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Jaguars seem to have a pulse of late.

Dolphins + 6.5 over PATRIOTS (Dolphins to win): This is the Dolphins' season.  They pull out a shocking win at Foxboro.

CHIEFS - 7.5 over Browns: Chiefs and 135 dB crowd overwhelm Weeden & Co.

Bills + 11.5 over SAINTS (Saints to win): Thad Lewis acquits himself well against a porous Saints D to keep it close.

Giants + 5.5 over EAGLES (Giants to win): Eagles have lost 9 straight -- NIINE TIMES -- and are giving points.

Steelers - 2.5 over RAIDERS: Steelers get first win in Oakland since 1995.

Jets + 6.5 over BENGALS (Jets to win): Bengals held on by skin of their teeth last two games -- they regress as the Jets carry momentum from last week to a win.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Falcons: It's only this close a line on reputation -- Arizona has the better team, America just doesn't believe it yet.

BRONCOS - 12.5 over Redskins: Broncos roar back from first -- and maybe only -- loss of the regular season.

Packers - 9.5 over VIKINGS: Vikings in disarray, Packers chugging along.

Seahawks - 10.5 over RAMS: Unless Brett Favre comes to the rescue . . .

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Tonight: Bucs + 6.5

Oh dear . . .

Not as easy a pick as you might think.  Tampa has kept things reasonably close this season at home:

Week 2: Lost to Saints, 16-14
Week 4: Lost to Cardinals, 13-10
Week 6: Lost to Eagles, 31-20
Average margin of loss: 5.3

And Carolina on the road . . .

Week 2: Lost to Bills, 24-23
Week 5: Lost to Cardinals, 22-6
Week 6: Beat Vikings, 35-10
Average margin of victory: 2.6

I feel that the most likely outcome might be Panthers by a TD, but I think Vegas is overreacting to their last 2 weeks.  The chance of a Tampa win is higher than the chance of a blowout.

THE PICK: Panthers 19, Bucs 13

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Week 7 Picks

Great Googly Moogly, the Ch(i)efs are 6-0!

At 6-0, the Chiefs seem like a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs.  As Fifth Down points out, only once since 1990 had a team started 6-0 and missed the playoffs (the '03 Vikings) . . .until the Chiefs' division rival the Broncos did it in 2009 (after the article was published).  We now have the interesting situation of having the league's only 2 undefeated teams in the same division, something that apparently hasn't happened this late int he season since the 30's.  All of which set up a pretty great Week 10 matchup between KC and Denver.  It says here both will win . . . and cover . . . this weekend.

LAST WEEK: 8-6 straight-up, 5-9 against the spread
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 against the spread
SEASON TO DATE: 63-28 straight-up, 44-45-2

Patriots - 4.5 over JETS: Jets emerging as weaker than we might have thought.  Pats can win this one by a TD.

Cowboys + 2.5 over EAGLES (Cowboys to win): A pretty huge game in the NFC East.  Dallas just more talented on both sides of the ball, even without DeMarcus Ware.

FALCONS -7.5 over Bucs: Can't take Tampa on the road under any circumstances.

Bengals - 2.5 over LIONS: Detroit has been pretty up-and-down this season.  This feels like a fallback game after a solid win over Cleveland last week.

PANTHERS - 6.5 over Rams: Line is two points too low after St. Louis's shocking performance last week.

Bears + 1.5 over REDSKINS (Bears to win): Shocking line.

DOLPHINS - 8.5 over Bills: Miami coming off a bye, Bills got all the magic they could out of Thad Lewis already.

Chargers - 7.5 over JAGUARS: Not enough points to make me comfortable taking Jacksonville.

TITANS + 4.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Toughest pick of the weekend.  Ended up taking the points at home.

Browns + 10.5 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Too many points, Vegas overreacting to Browns' discouraging loss to Detroit.

Ravens -+1.5 over STEELERS (Ravens to win): Pittsburgh was really *not* impressive last week against the Jets.  Anyone who thinks the tide has turned based on that win is off base.

CHIEFS - 6.5 over Texans: Houston has to cover a game before I think about legitimately picking them the rest of the season.

Broncos - 6.5 over COLTS: Peyton Manning's swan song.  It really might be all downhill from here, but I say he puts up 45 on his former team.

Vikings + 3.5 over GIANTS (Vikings to win): How the Giants are more than 3 point favorites against anyone is seriously baffling to me.

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Tomorrow night: Cardinals + 6.5

When in doubt, take the home underdog getting almost a touchdown in a divisional game.

THE PICK: Niners 25, Cardinals 21

Week 6 Picks

Is he playing?  Is he sitting?  Is he chowing down on a Dunkin Donuts sandwich?

Seriously, if you drafted Gronk in a fantasy league (and somehow I dodged him in all 5 of mine), how frustrated are you right now?  This week marks the midpoint of the fantasy regular season.  He hasn't played a down, and may not this weekend.

SEASON TO DATE:
55-22 Straight-up
39-36-2 Against the spread

THIS WEEK:
1-0 Straight-up
0-1 Against the spread

Panthers + 2.5 over VIKINGS (Panthers to win): Not even the acquisition of Josh Freeman can take the stink off a Vikings team who has only beaten a winless team (Pittsburgh).

Packers -3 over RAVENS: An elite team vs. a good one.

BROWNS + 2.5 over Lions (Browns to win): No matter who's playing quarterback, the Browns have the defense to slow down Detroit's potent attack.  Look for them to win a game in the 20s.

Eagles -2 over BUCS: Doesn't matter that Brian Hoyer is playing QB for Philly.  Mike Glennon's playing QB for the winless Bucs.

TEXANS - 7.5 over Rams: I think both of these teams are not good at football.

Bengals - 6.5 over BILLS: Thad Lewis alert!

JETS -2.5 over Steelers: Aging Steelers' defense alert!

CHIEFS - 9.5 over Raiders: I am insanely confident that KC will win this game.  9.5 is a lot for a frisky Raiders.  But the Chiefs' average margin of victory is 14, and the Raiders are a worse-than-average opponent playing at Arrowhead.

Titans + 13 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): Just too many points.

BRONCOS - 26.5 over Jaguars: I'd take Denver even if it was 35.  Correlated parlay, anyone?

Saints +2.5 over PATRIOTS (Saints to win): Spare me the bit about Belichick and Brady being incredible after a loss.  New Orleans is the better team.

COWBOYS - 5.5 over Redskins: Washington not a good football team right now.

Colts - 1.5 over CHARGERS: Indianapolis might be the best team in the AFC right now.

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Tonight: BEARS -7 over Giants

Still funny . . .

The Giants are due to right the ship, and the Bears -- especially their defense -- might not be that good.  But I can't in good conscience take a team that hasn't won a game all year, on the road, getting only just a touchdown, against a 3-2 team.

THE PICK: Bears 31, Giants 20

Week 5 picks

Anybody need a QB?  How bout a college coach?

SEASON TO DATE
Outright: 47-16

Against the spread: 32-29-2

THIS WEEK

Outright: 1-0

Against the spread: 1-0

Seahawks -3 over COLTS: I'm taking Seattle in any game, even on the road, if they're a 3 point favorite or less.

RAMS - 11.5 over Jaguars: Can't take the historically-bad Jaguars in any circumstance until they actually compete in a game.

Chiefs -2.5 over TITANS: Tough game, but I just think KC wins, and with a spread under 3, you have to take them ATS as well.

Ravens + 2.5 over DOLPHINS (Dolphins to win outright): Breaking the rule above; this one's super-close, so I'll take the likely push (winning ATS or outright but not both)

BEARS + 1.5 over SAINTS (Bears to win outright): Big bounce-back game for Chicago.  New Orleans is good but they're not 5-0 good.

Eagles + 1 over GIANTS (Eagles to win outright): New York hasn't given us any reason to believe.

Patriots + 1.5 over BENGALS (Patriots to win outright): New England has given us every reason to believe, even without Gronk.

Lions +7 over PACKERS (Packers to win outright): Feels like a 200-total-yard performance for Reggie Bush.

Panthers - 1.5 over CARDINALS: Panthers coming off a bye, Cardinals lost to Mike Glennon last week.

Broncos - 7 over COWBOYS: At the rate this offense is going, take the Broncos every time unless it's 14 at home or 10 on the road, no matter the opponent.

NINERS -6 over Texans: I just think Houston has no shot of scoring more than 17 points in this game.

RAIDERS + 4.5 over Chargers (Raiders to win outright): Figure that the weird start favors the home team.

Jets +9.5 over FALCONS (Falcons to win outright): Atlanta doesn't blow opponents out; the Jets, aside from last week, don't get blown out.

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Tonight: Browns - 3.5

...

The Bills are just too inconsistent for me to get behind them.  Sure, they had an impressive win against the Ravens, but just the previous week couldn't beat a Jets team that gave up a mile in penalty yards.  Cleveland, on the other hand, was so impressive in shutting down Cincinnati last week that you barely saw the game on RedZone.  The Browns have become a popular sleeper to win a weak AFC North.  Tonight, they take a half a game lead, with division co-leaders Cincinnati and Baltimore facing the best of the AFC East (New England and Miami).

THE PICK: Browns 23, Bills 17

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