Week 2 Recap / Week 3 Preview

Somewhere, Rod Tidwell is smiling at the Cardinals' early season success

WEEK 2 RECAP
A quick look at where we hit and missed in week 2, highlighting the plights of 5 teams:

1. Cardinals: Our boldest predictions of the '12 season involved the Cardinals and their Week 2 opponents, New England.  We were bullish on Arizona (our model had them at 10+ wins and a playoff berth) and seemed to be the only people on the planet bearish on New England (sub .500 for the first time since 2000).  Cardinals +13.5 was our lock of the week last week, and it hit, with plenty of room to spare.

The craziest part of the Cardinals' victory was that WR Larry Fitzgerald was all but absent from it; Fitzgerald had a single catch for 4 yards on Arizona's opening drive.  We figured the Cardinals' defense would be good this year, and through 2 weeks, the numbers justify that premise: their 34 points allowed is second in the AFC, and Football Outsiders ranks their defense 8th of 32.  Patrick Peterson is the household name, but look for names like LB Daryl Washington, LB Paris Lenon, and DE Calais Campbell to become part of NFL vernacular as the season rolls on.  We wouldn't be surprised if all 3 make the Pro Bowl.

2. Patriots: Arizona was a pretty good team, so New Englanders should stop short of entering full-fledged panic mode.  Having said that, the problems on the o-line shouldn't be too shocking -- we had the Pats' offseason fifth worst in the AFC, largely due to losing Matt Light, the most valuable player lost by any AFC team.  Light's weighted value of 65 was second only to Carl Nicks (84; he went from New Orleans to Tampa in the NFC).  Brandon Lloyd hasn't proven himself able to get in sync with Tom Brady, and New England is missing Deion Branch more than many thought it would.  It gets no easier for the Patriots this week playing in Baltimore, home of the NFL's best home field advantage, even with the "Bill Belichick after a loss" corollary looming (more on that below).

3. Niners: 2 playoff teams from last year, 2 convincing -- if not blow-out -- victories for San Francisco, the BQB's Super Bowl pick at the start of the season.  The big story here is still QB Alex Smith, who improved on last year's ranking and currently ranks second in QB rating and fourth in ESPN's Total QBR.  Again, this is a guy who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last year, and his team went 13-3.  If Smith can even crack the top half of QBs this year, watch out.

4. Jets: Fans of our other Super Bowl pick, the Jets, came back to earth this week following a 27-10 loss in Pittsburgh.  The Jets have long had trouble with the Steelers, especially in Pittsburgh, but Mark Sanchez's 10-for-27 performance was downright ugly, especially against a Steelers D missing 2 starters.  Which Sanchez is the real one -- the one who put up 48 points against Buffalo or the one who got shut out in the second half against the Steelers?  We probably won't find out this week, when the Jets travel to lowly Miami. But we'll definitely know in 2 weeks, when they play the Niners.  Stay tuned.

5. Texans: We didn't have the Texans in the playoffs at the start of the season.  At the same time, our model did have them starting 2-0 against two weak opponents, the Dolphins and the Jaguars.  Which they did.  No big deal.  And while the model now has them in the playoffs -- due as much to the putridity of the rest of the AFC South than anything else -- they face a brutal stretch the next 5 games:

Week 3: At Denver
Week 4: Home vs. Tennessee
Week 5 At New York Jets
Week 6: Home vs. Green Bay
Week 7: Home vs. Baltimore

Houston lucks out in playing the toughest teams in that stretch (Green Bay and Baltimore) at home, but regardless, they could be a half decent team and go 2-3 or even 1-4 in that stretch.  Bottom line: we should know a lot more about the Texans by mid-October.

"Hmmm . . . that schedule looks pretty tough the next 5 weeks . . ."

Last, but not least, last week we noted that teams who won by 20 or more in week 1 were 1-6 against the spread since 2009.  5 such teams won by 20 or more in week 1 this week -- the Bears, Patriots, Texans, Jets, and Ravens.  Those teams went 1-3-1 against the spread last week, with the Texans the only winner and the Ravens a push against Philly.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
See last week's post for our methodology.  We've adjusted the weightings to 81% preseason rating and 19% Pythagorean Expectation for this year.

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Chargers (10.9 expected wins), Ravens (10.3), Jets (10.1), Texans (9.3)
AFC Wild Cards: Steelers (9.9), Bengals (8.9)
New since last week: Bengals; Dropped out: Patriots (7.7)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Eagles (11.8), Falcons (11.2), Packers (11.2)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.1), Saints (10.9)
New since last week: Packers; Dropped out: Bears (10.8)

Again, it's worth pointing out the NFC's superiority over the AFC; through 2 weeks, NFC teams are 7-1 against the AFC (Indy's win over Minnesota was the AFC's lone win).  We're projecting 7 10-win teams in the NFC and just 3 in the AFC.

WEEK 3 PREVIEW

Everybody and their mother is yapping about how the Patriots are unbeatable after a loss in the Belichick era.  We at the BQB took it upon ourselves to crunch the numbers.

Patriots Record After a Loss and After a Win, Bill Belichick Era

Year	Record After a Loss	Record After a Win
2000	4-6	1-4
2001	4-1	7-3
2002	3-4	5-3
2003	2-0	12-1
2004	2-0	11-2
2005	5-0	4-6
2006	3-1	8-3
2007	0-0	15-0
2008	5-0	5-5
2009	3-1	5-6
2010	2-0	11-2
2011	2-1	10-2
2012	0-0	0-1
Total	35-14 (.714)	94-38 (.712)
Since 2003	24-3 (.889)	81-27 (.750)

Taking the Belichick era as a whole, the Pats win almost exactly as often after a loss as after a win -- the difference in win percentage is 0.2%  Since 2003, the difference is a little more pronounced -- those who speak only in headlines would shout that the Pats have lost back-to-back games only 3 times in the past 10 seasons.  And though they'd be right, the fact remains that New England was really good after wins too; they were ~14% more likely to win after a loss than after a win.  That's a little more significant, but not nearly as much as many are pontificating.  For our part, we won't consider it as we assess New England's chances in the Sunday night game at Baltimore, where they're 3 point dogs.

WEEK 3 PICKS

(Note: our model actually had Arizona winning outright last week (no joke), but we failed to print that.  To avoid such issues in the future, we're listing our picks both outright and against the spread from here on out.)

Last week, against the spread: 9-4-3

Season, against the spread: 18-11-3 (.581)
Season, outright: 24-8 (.750)

Week 3 picks (in order of confidence):

PANTHERS +1 over Giants (Panthers to win outright)

Bucs + 7 over COWBOYS (Bucs)

Niners -7 over VIKINGS (Niners)

Bengals + 3.5 over REDSKINS (Bengals)

CARDINALS +4 over Eagles (Cardinals)

Jaguars +3 over COLTS (Jaguars)

TITANS + 3.5 over Lions (Lions)

Falcons + 3 over CHARGERS (Chargers)

BEARS -9 over Rams (Bears)

Steelers -4 over RAIDERS (Steelers)

RAVENS -3 over Patriots (Ravens)

SAINTS -9 over Chiefs (Saints)

Bills -3 over BROWNS (Bills)

BRONCOS +2 over Texans (Texans)

Jets -3 over DOLPHINS (Jets)

Packers -3.5 over SEAHAWKS (Packers)



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Week 1 Recap / Week 2 Preview

Alex Smith, unsung hero in the Niners' impressive 30-22 Week 1 victory over Green Bay

WEEK 1 RECAP

Our season preview ruffled some feathers last week, especially in Massachusetts.  Let's take a quick look at where we hit and where we missed base on week 1's results.

Where we were right: Niners, Jets, Cardinals, Bears

Niners: Our projections had San Francisco winning a whopping 14 games this year and winning the Super Bowl, and beating the Packers at Lambeau went a long way toward cementing them as one of the NFL's elite teams.  Most of the hype was about the defense -- the Packers had only 7 points in the first 3 quarters -- and the Niners' 186 yards on the ground.  Not enough is being said about QB Alex Smith who had an incredibly efficient line of 20/26, 211 yards, 2 TDs, no picks, and a passer rating of 125.6.  Smith's ESPN QBR was 8th in the league last week.  Last year, he was 22nd and the Niners were a fumble away from the NFC Title Game.  If he can remain a top 10 quarterback in the league, watch out.  Look for San Fran to continue their dominance against Detroit, who looked rather pedestrian in a home win against St. Louis last week.

Jets: Remember the preseason when the Jets scored one offensive touchdown?  So much for that.  The offense looked pristine against an admittedly-overmatched Bills defense in putting up 48 points, the most by a Jets team since week 4 of the 2008 season, when Brett Favre put up a 56 spot on an Arizona defense that ended up going to the Super Bowl.  (That was a weird sentence to write.)  Much was written this offseason about the Jets lack of offensive weapons -- specifically a #2 WR.  Through a week, rookie Stephen Hill and journeyman Jeremy Kerley seem more than up to the task.  They face a tougher challenge in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Cardinals: It was ugly, and it barely involved John Skelton, but Arizona got a win they had to have if they're going to compete this year.  As expected, the Cards defense was solid, holding Seattle and rookie QB Russell Wilson to a single touchdown.  New QB Kevin Kolb is probably the more talented QB than Skelton, and for now, we're not budging from our 10-win prediction from the Cardinals.

Bears: If Brandon Marshall could catch, the Bears' 41-21 might have been even more lopsided.  As expected, the Bears took care of business against #1 overall pick Andrew Luck and the Colts.  As expected, the reuniting of Jay Cutler and Marshall proved potent, with the two hooking up 9 times for 119 yards and a TD, even with all the drops.  Huge game tonight for Chicago -- if they can get a win, they'll open up a 2 game lead on Green Bay with the tiebreak, and will be in good position to cruise into the bye week (next 3 games: home for St. Louis, at Dallas, at Jacksonville, then the bye).

Where we were wrong: Patriots, Saints, Steelers, Broncos

Patriots: The Pats' 3-touchdown win over Tennessee was even more lopsided than the score indicates.  New England's tight ends create matchup problems our model doesn't adequately capture, and if Stevan Ridley is going to be as good as he looked in week 1, New England could be as good as the rest of the public thinks they'll be.  I also have to note that the Pats draft picks -- we ranked their draft worst in the NFL -- came through in a big way on Sunday.  Even "worst pick in the draft" Tavon Wilson had an interception.  Maybe Bill Belichick & Co. are just that good as talent evaluators.

Saints: So much for Bountygate rallying the Saints, who stumbled to their first loss at the Superdome since 2010 in the stunner of the week.  RG3's debut was the big story here, but the porous Saints' D looked as bad as ever, and mental mistakes plagued New Orleans all day (not a shocker given that they had their interim interim head coach at the helm).  Big divisional road game for New Orleans at Carolina this week.

Steelers / Broncos: This game was tighter than the 31-19 final score indicated, but you really can't say enough about Peyton Manning.  Every other writer / blogger has gushed about Manning so we won't do so here, except to note the success he had in Indianapolis with an otherwise-average team: from 2002 to 2010, the Colts won 10 games every year and qualified for the playoffs every year.  Denver's D is better than Indy's ever was.  If Denver can keep Manning upright, they might be more of a force than we thought in a weak AFC West.

As for Pittsburgh, our other Conference runner up (along with the Saints), the defense looked like it was missing 3 starters from last year (James Farrior, William Gay, and Ryan Clark).  We'll see if they're able to have any success against the Sanchez/Tebow combo in what suddenly becomes a big home game this week.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Every week, we'll update our playoff projections by revamping our expected wins calculation each week:

1. Project the rest of the season: Use our preseason rankings (85% weight) and a team's Pythagorean expectation from this season (15% weight) -- we'll amend those weightings as the season goes on (skewing away from preseason rankings) to get expected wins for the next 15 games

2. Add number of wins so far (in this case, 1 if the team won last week, 0 if they lost)

Using the Jets as an example:

Initial rating: 10.9
Pythagorean expectation based on 48-28 win: 48^2 / (48^2 + 28^2) = 0.75*16 = 11.9
New expected wins (16 games): 11.1 (10.9 x 85% + 11.9 x 15%)
New expected wins (15 games, since 1 is already played): 10.4 (11.1 x 15 / 16)
Wins so far: 1
New expected wins: 10.4 + 1 = 11.4

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Jets (11.4 wins), Ravens (11.2), Chargers (10.0), Texans (8.5)
AFC Wild Card: Steelers (9.0), Patriots (8.4)
Added: Texans, Patriots  Dropped out: Bengals (8.1), Titans (6.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Saints (12.0), Bears (12.0), Eagles (11.7)
NFC Wild Card: Falcons (10.9), Cardinals (10.8)
Added: Falcons  Dropped out: Packers (10.6)

WEEK 2 PREVIEW

We live in a world of instant reaction (or, if you prefer, instant overreaction), and with 5 20+ victories in week 1, followers of the NFL are no different.  In recent years, however, we've seen a big reversion to the mean in week 2 with blowout winners in week 1.  In fact, teams that won their opening game by 20 points or more are just 1-6 against the spread in week 2 since 2009 and just 2-5 outright.  This implies that spreads move big time based on the first week's results -- maybe too much.

The 5 big winners last week were the Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears, and Ravens.  Just 2 are favorites (Patriots and Texans) in week 2.  Our picks project that trend to largely continue; of the 5 big winners last week, we only have the Jets covering the spread.

Maybe the Pats will get points if Gronk successfully completes a spike this week.  They might need
them to cover the 2 touchdown spread against Arizona.

WEEK 2 PICKS, in order of confidence:
Cardinals + 13.5 over PATRIOTS
Bucs + 7 over GIANTS
BENGALS -7 over Browns
FALCONS -3 over Broncos
NINERS -7 over Lions
EAGLES -1 over Ravens
Saints -3 over PANTHERS
BILLS -3 over Chiefs
COLTS +1.5 over Vikings
DOLPHINS +1 over Raiders
Redskins -3 over RAMS
JAGUARS +7 over Texans
CHARGERS -6 over Titans
Jets + 5.5 over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS +3 over Cowboys
PACKERS -4.5 over Bears

Last week: 9-7

Enjoy Week 2.  See you next week.

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The Official Backup Quarterback Blog 2012 Season Predictions

Patrick Willis: the most important player on the BQB's Super Bowl pick

At long last, football starts on Sunday.  We at the BQB are psyched, not the least of which because we just switched to DirecTV and will feast on 9 -- 9! -- 1 o'clock games on Sunday via their NFL Sunday Ticket package.

Also at long last, the culmination of our offseason work: our 2012 season predictions.  We took all the relevant info we looked at during the season, put it together, and voila -- projected records for our 32 teams.  Here's how we did it:

1. Expected wins: We started with a team's expected wins from 2011, as determined by Pythagorean expectation.
2. New coaches get a bump: Since teams with new coaches typically see a bump of 1.5 wins the following year, we added 1.5 wins to the 7 teams who changed coaches this year.
3. Draft: We rated every team's draft, normalized those rankings to a 0 to 100 scale, and added or subtracted wins based on how they drafted (up to a cap of +/- 2, so the best team gained 2 wins and the worst team lost 2 wins).
4. Offseason: We assessed offseason movement (non-rookies) for each team (AFC and NFC), normalized those, and added or subtracted wins based on where they fell (the cap here was +/- 4)
5. Preseason: The preseason barely matters, but it seems to matter a little when teams go undefeated or winless; if a team went undefeated, we added a win, if it went winless, we subtracted one.
6. Schedule: We took the result of the first 5 steps, used it to run teams head-to-head (home advantage = 1 game), then took the weighted average of:
     - The original projected wins # (75%) and
     - Number of wins when you run the schedule (25%)

We then normalized the records so that, in total, teams would go 256-256 (since every game must be won or lost).

Disclaimer: We realize this isn't the be-all and end-all of projections, and that they're fairly quantitative and not at all subjective.  Having said that, we got some reasonable results in spots and, perhaps most notably, have 6 repeat playoff teams and 6 new playoff teams, about the average over the past 10 years.

After the jump, our ratings, predictions, and week 1 picks!

Assessing Offseason Movement for All 16 NFC Teams

Brandon Marshall, the prize of the Bears' stellar offseason

Earlier today, we assessed the AFC teams.  This post looks at the NFC.  As with the AFC, we've looked specifically at a few NFC teams throughout the offseason, including the Redskins, Bears, Bucs, Rams, Vikings, and the entire NFC East.  As before, some values have changed due to player movement during training camp.

See the AFC post for full methodology.  Cliff notes:

1. Just non-rookies are considered.  No draft picks; they're assessed here.  (No UFAs either.)
2. Each player gets a rating based on PFR's AV rating:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

3. The sum of the values of players leaving the roster from last year to this year is subtracted from the sum of the values of the players entering the roster from last year to this year.  The result is the net value gained / lost.

4. Since more accomplished players are typically replaced with younger, less accomplished ones, most teams (all but one this year) had net negative values.

As our picture impiles, the top offseason in the NFC - and the entire NFL - belongs to the Chicago Bears.  Full list after the jump . . .

Assessing Offseason Movement for All 16 AFC Teams

Even with these guys at the helm, Jets fans should be happy with their offseason

Last night's season opener marked the end of one streak and the continuation of another.  The Giants became the defending champ to lose the season opener in prime time, breaking a streak of 8 years in a row. In a related story, the Backup Quarterback got knocked out in his Suicide Pool in week 1 for the 3rd year in a row.  The Giants sure seemed like a sure thing, so I blame the fact that the game was on a Wednesday rather than a Thursday.  At least Floyd Mayweather made some money betting on the second half.

While watching last night's game, the BQB finished up his AFC offseason player movement rankings.  Several AFC teams got their own posts throughout the offseason (including the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Browns, and Bills).  Following final cuts, we had to re-run the numbers, so some of the outlooks have changed.

Groundrules for this post:

1. We're considering non-rookie player movement only.  Draft picks are covered here.

2. Each player gets a value ascribed to him, based on the AV formula from our friends at Pro Football Reference:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

3. If a player was on a team's roster the previous season and is no longer on that roster this season, that represents value "lost" for the team.  If a player is on the roster this season and was not on the roster last season, that represents value "gained" for the team.  It doesn't matter how they got there -- free agency, trade, waivers, whatever.

4. Net value represents value gained minus value lost.

5. A player's value is all that matters here.  Their salary, what a team got in return for that player via trade, intangibles, etc. aren't considered.

6. These obviously aren't the be-all and end-all of our season projections (coming soon), but they are a component of them.

So who had the best offseason in the AFC?  The answer surprised us . . .

Opening Night: Why The Smart Money's on the Giants

Thanks to the President, the Giants will open the season a day early

In the first Wednesday night game in the NFL in 64 years (thank you, President Obama and the DNC), the Cowboys and the defending champion Giants open the season tomorrow.  The NFL first started having its most recent champion play a home game in primetime to start the season in 2004.  And since then, the defending champs have been overwhelmingly successful.  Details after the jump:

Offseason Review: NFC East

In an effort to get our team offseason reviews done by the Giants-Cowboys game, we're combining the remaining teams in each division in a single post.  Today, we look at the NFC East.  We covered the Redskins back in May and look at the other three teams below.

For those of you who haven't been following along:

1. We're looking only at roster changes from year-to-year; Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the game, but the Packers don't get credit for having him on their roster because he was on it last year.  The Broncos, on the other hand, get credit for acquiring Peyton Manning.

2. We're not considering rookies -- neither draft picks nor undrafted free agents.  You can see our draft rankings here and we'll consider them in our mega-NFL preview in a few weeks.

3. The two main quantitative metrics are "starts gained or lost" and "value gained or lost."  Starts are straightforward -- if a player started a game in 2011 and left the team, that's a negative; if a player started a game in 2011 and joined the team, that's a positive.  So if a team loses a player who started 8 games but gains one who started 10 games, that's a net of +2.

4. "Value" is defined using a weighted version of Pro Football Reference's AV ratings, considering the past 3 years in increasing order of importance:

Value = 2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

5. That's where the quantitative ends and the qualitative begins; we opine on what the numbers mean for each team at the end of every post.

With that out of the way, who got better and worse in the NFC East?  The 4 teams are listed after the jump in order of most improved to least improved.

The Bengals' offseason: Optimism, but few big moves

Bengals fans haven't been this excited in August since the days of the Ickey Shuffle . . .

[11th in a series of posts looking at many of the NFL's 32 teams and their offseasons.  Past posts: Vikings, Jets, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

Optimism abounds in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are looking for back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since Boomer Esiason and Ickey Woods roamed the backfield.

The Bengals were a legitimate playoff team last year, as evidenced by their Pythagorean expectation of 8.5 wins in what turned out to be a 9-7 season.  Against teams other than the Ravens and Steelers, Cincinnati went an impressive 9-3.  QB Andy Dalton had an impressive rookie campaign, and fellow second-year pro AJ Green is making Bengals fans quickly forget about the days they started Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocino at WR.  Lastly, we thought they had the best draft of any team in the league.

So did the Bengals back it up in free agency?  Truth is, they were pretty quiet.  Details after the jump.

The Vikings Offseason: They Needed Help, They Didn't Get Any



How I Met Your Mother's Marshall Eriksen (right) drowns his sorrows on the Vikings' offseason

[10th in a series of posts on the offseasons of each of the NFL teams.  We'll try like crazy to get to all 32 teams, but realistically, we might not get there. 
Past posts:  Jets, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

The Vikings struggled mightily last year.  The "Donovan McNabb at QB" experimented was an abject failure, and the Vikings stumbled to a 3-13 record.

The bright side?  They have a lot of young talent, especially on offense, led by RB Adrian Peterson (coming off an injury), WR Percy Harvin, and first rounders from last year (QB Christian Ponder) and this year (OT Matt Kalil).  And the numbers suggest they weren't quite as bad as their record indicates.  Though they only won 3 games, Pythagorean expectation suggests they should have won 5.8 games, making them the most unlucky team in the league -- they went a whopping 2-9 in one-score games last year.

The Vikes seem content to roll with their youth movement.  As a result, at least on paper, they didn't add much in the offseason.  More after the jump . . .

Assessing Ron Jaworski's QB Rankings

Jaws released his ranking of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month

ESPN analyst and former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski completed his much-hyped list of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month when he named Aaron Rodgers the top QB in football.

Jaws based his a lot of his opinion on the "eye test," or what he saw in a player from watching film.  This is totally appropraite given Jaws' background as an NFL QB, as he's well-positioned to assess a player's technique or prowess in a particular aspect of football (playing against the rush, checking down, throwing the deep ball, etc.).  Nonetheless, we thought it might be interesting to compare his rankings to the weighted AV ratings we've been using in our team previews.  As a reminder, those ratings are based on on the yearly AV metric from our friends at Pro Football Reference, using the following formula:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

You can see the two rankings side-by-side after the jump.

Do Preseason Results Matter?

Hoyer!  Daniel!  It's NFL Preseason football!

Conventional wisdom holds that preseason football is utterly meaningless.  Players and fans alike have called for the reduction of the preseason schedule to two or even no games, and most would argue that only 3 things make for a good preseason:

1. Avoiding major injuries
2. Deciding roster spots for second- and third-stringers
3. Getting the first team offense and defense into some semblance of a rhythm (without violating #1 above)

But do results matter at all?  Winning and losing can be habit-forming, and they can also be something intrinsic to team chemistry.  I'm reminded of this game from the last week of 2004, which pitted the Steelers and the Bills.  The Steelers were 14-1 and had locked home field advantage, while the Bills needed a win to make the playoffs.  Pittsburgh, despite playing such luminaries as Brian St. Pierre at QB and then-unheralded Willie Parker at RB and James Harrison at LB, won, despite having nothing on the line.  The argument is that a culture of winning had been instilled throughout the season, regardless of who was on the field.

Would such an argument apply to preseason football as well?  Does winning those games set a precedent for the regular season, even if most of the games are decided by third- and fourth-stringers?

The Jets' Offseason: Keeping the Core Intact

"They call that a brawl!?  I'll show 'em a fight!"

[Continuing our series on each NFL team's offseason moves.  Previous posts can be found here: Rams,  Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

With the Jets embroiled in controversy once again -- training camp brawls, cornerbacks with 12 kids by 8 baby-mama's claiming to be the second-best wide receiver on the roster, etc. -- the team that readies itself for the NFL season at camp in Cortland, NY looks strikingly similar to the one that went 8-8 in 2011.  After advancing to 2 straight AFC Championship Games in '09 and '10 and after starting 8-5 in '11 despite a streaky start to the season, the Jets tumbled down the stretch last year, being outscored 93-50 in 3 straight losses.

All the buzz this summer was around the Jets trading for Tim Tebow, but in reality, the Jets mostly stood pat this offseason.  After the jump, a look at who they acquired, lost, and, most importantly, held onto.

The Rebuilding Rams' Offseason

This gentleman seems non-plussed with the Rams cleaning house this offseason

[Note: This post is the 8th in our series of posts on each team's offseason.  After this post, we'll have covered one team from every division.  Past posts have discussed the Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

At 2-14, the Rams tied the Colts for the worst record in football last year.  Even though the Colts "won" the tiebreak (and with it, the right to select Andrew Luck #1 overall), the Rams were the worst team by Pythagorean expectation, with just 2.9 wins.  It didn't help that Sam Bradford missed 6 games due to injury.

Unsurprisingly, the "R" word looms large when looking at the Rams' offseason.  St. Louis got rid of 19 players this offseason, including 9 who started at least 8 games last year.  They added a few big names as well, but seem largely content to let a youth movement -- and a healthy Bradford -- determine their fate.

After the jump, a deeper dive into the Rams' rebuilding . . .

Recasting Any Given Sunday

"Ya find out life's this game of inches . . . so's football . . ."

We at the Backup Quarterback Blog had a few friends over for July 4th.  Prior to the evening's fireworks display, we were flipping between the various patriotic concerts and -- one of my favorite things of any July 4th -- old-school patriotic movies.  I happened to walk 2 guests into the living room during Bill Pullman's epic (?) speech in the 1996 movie Independence Day.  After we ceased all conversation and immediately fixated upon Pullman (portraying U.S. President Thomas J. Whitmore), conversation turned to the Twitter feed of Grantland's Bill Barnwell.  In Tweets throughout the day, Barnwell and his followers discussed the prospect of re-casting Independence Day using today's stars.  Among the highlights: LeBron James or Russell Westbrook as Will Smith's character, Vincent Kartheiser (Pete Campbell on Mad Men) as Jeff Goldblum, Will Farrell as Goldblum's character's father, and Bill Pullman's President Whitmore played by . . . Bill Pullman.

A few days later, we found ourselves flipping channels and stumbled upon Oliver Stone's 1999 football drama, Any Given Sunday.  Arguably our favorite football movie of all time ("The Program," "Little Giants," "Rudy," "Necessary Roughness," and "Varsity Blues" also merit consideration, with 'The Replacements" finishing in roughly 1,775th place), we thought we'd try the same exercise here -- recasting Any Given Sunday, except with current players, coaches, and other NFL-related personnel.  Mr. Stone, if you're looking to produce a remake, you can find our cast list after the jump . . .

The Chiefs' Offseason: Cleaning House

Great Googly Moogly, the Chiefs lost a lot of players this offseason

[Note: This is the 7th in our series of posts on the offseasons of each of the 32 teams.  Previously, we've covered the Bills, Redskins, Browns, Bears, Titans, and Bucs.  To even out the divisions, you'll see an NFC West team for installment #8.]

You may be surprised to remember that the Chiefs went 7-9 last year and were in the hunt to win the AFC West well into December.  This is probably due to the fact that they weren't a very good team last year; Pythagorean expectation only had them at only 4.5 wins.  They lost their starting QB (Matt Cassel) and their best RB (Jamaal Charles) to injury, and promptly fired their coach, Todd Haley, now offensive coordinator with the Steelers.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Chiefs cleaned house in the offseason.  Maybe more surprisingly, the players they brought in don't quite provide a match for the players they lost or got rid of.  In short, it appears new coach Romeo Crennel will face a big challenge in improving on last year's 7 win record.