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| Even with these guys at the helm, Jets fans should be happy with their offseason |
Last night's season opener marked the end of one streak and the continuation of another. The Giants became the defending champ to lose the season opener in prime time, breaking a streak of 8 years in a row. In a related story, the Backup Quarterback got knocked out in his Suicide Pool in week 1 for the 3rd year in a row. The Giants sure seemed like a sure thing, so I blame the fact that the game was on a Wednesday rather than a Thursday. At least Floyd Mayweather made some money betting on the second half.
While watching last night's game, the BQB finished up his AFC offseason player movement rankings. Several AFC teams got their own posts throughout the offseason (including the Bengals, Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Browns, and Bills). Following final cuts, we had to re-run the numbers, so some of the outlooks have changed.
Groundrules for this post:
1. We're considering non-rookie player movement only. Draft picks are covered here.
2. Each player gets a value ascribed to him, based on the AV formula from our friends at Pro Football Reference:
2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV
3. If a player was on a team's roster the previous season and is no longer on that roster this season, that represents value "lost" for the team. If a player is on the roster this season and was not on the roster last season, that represents value "gained" for the team. It doesn't matter how they got there -- free agency, trade, waivers, whatever.
4. Net value represents value gained minus value lost.
5. A player's value is all that matters here. Their salary, what a team got in return for that player via trade, intangibles, etc. aren't considered.
6. These obviously aren't the be-all and end-all of our season projections (coming soon), but they are a component of them.
So who had the best offseason in the AFC? The answer surprised us . . .
The 16 AFC teams ranked by net value gained this offseason:
Team
|
’11 W-L
|
Net value
|
Value Gained
|
Value Lost
|
Most valuable additions
|
Most valuable losses
| |
1
|
Jets
|
8-8
|
-89
|
122
|
211
|
Yeremiah Bell (S, 45), Tim Tebow (QB, 30)
|
LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, 38), Jim Leonhard (S, 31)
|
2
|
Broncos
|
8-8
|
-100
|
322
|
422
|
Peyton Manning (QB, 49), Joel Dreessen (TE, 36)
|
Kyle Orton (QB, 42), Brandon Lloyd (WR, 40)
|
3
|
Bills
|
6-10
|
-105
|
79
|
184
|
Mario Williams (DE, 30), T. Jackson (QB, 30)
|
Dwan Edwards (DE, 37), Drayton Florence (CB, 36)
|
4
|
Jaguars
|
5-11
|
-158
|
37
|
195
|
Laurent Robinson (WR, 28), B. Robiskie (WR, 5)
|
M. Sims-Walker (WR, 23), Drew Coleman (DB, 17)
|
5
|
Chiefs
|
7-9
|
-159
|
199
|
358
|
Eric Winston (OT, 51), Abram Elam (CB, 38)
|
Kyle Orton (QB, 42), Brandon Carr (CB, 41)
|
6
|
Chargers
|
8-8
|
-181
|
252
|
433
|
Jarret Johnson (LB, 49), R. Meachem (WR, 36)
|
Vincent Jackson (WR, 53), Mike Tolbert (RB, 45)
|
7
|
Browns
|
4-12
|
-186
|
48
|
234
|
Frostee Rucker (DE, 27), Juqua Parker (DE, 21)
|
Chris Gocong (DL, 45), Peyton Hillis (RB, 32)
|
8
|
Ravens
|
12-4
|
-190
|
135
|
325
|
Jacoby Jones (WR, 35), Bobbie Williams (G, 26)
|
Jarrett Johnson (LB, 49), Terrell Suggs* (LB, 40)
|
9
|
Titans
|
9-7
|
-199
|
111
|
310
|
K. Wimbley (DE, 42), S. Hutchinson (G, 40)
|
Cortland Finnegan (CB, 41), Barrett Ruud (LB, 40)
|
10
|
Bengals
|
4-12
|
-211
|
153
|
364
|
B. Green-Ellis (RB, 44), T. Newman (CB, 44)
|
Cedric Benson (RB, 44), Chris Crocker (DB, 38)
|
11
|
Steelers
|
12-4
|
-257
|
27
|
284
|
Leonard Pope (TE, 15), Brandon Johnson (LB, 12)
|
James Farrior (LB, 55), William Gay (CB, 33)
|
12
|
Patriots
|
13-3
|
-267
|
214
|
481
|
Brandon Lloyd (WR, 40), V. Shiancoe (TE, 38)
|
Matt Light (OT, 65), Deion Branch (WR, 47)
|
13
|
Raiders
|
8-8
|
-273
|
139
|
412
|
Mike Brisiel (G, 28), David Tollefson (DE, 25)
|
K. Wimbley (DE, 42), Jason Campbell (QB, 41)
|
14
|
Texans
|
10-6
|
-301
|
61
|
362
|
Ryan Harris (OT, 29), Alan Ball (CB, 20)
|
Eric Winston (OT, 51), DeMeco Ryans (LB, 38)
|
15
|
Colts
|
2-14
|
-331
|
257
|
588
|
Vontae Davis (CB, 37), Cory Redding (DE, 36)
|
Peyton Manning (QB, 49), Pierre Garcon (WR, 46)
|
16
|
Dolphins
|
8-8
|
-349
|
85
|
434
|
Richard Marshall (DB, 37), L. Naanee (WR, 26)
|
Brandon Marshall (WR, 56), Yeremiah Bell (S, 45)
|
*- Half of Suggs' value assumed lost, as he is likely to be out for much of the season with an injury.
First, note that every AFC team has a negative net value. Based on how we did the calculations, this shouldn't be a surprise, as, by definition, more accomplished players will retire or have their ties to their old teams cut, and younger, less established players will take their place. The older players have much higher values, so the net trend to what these rankings call "lower value" is natural.
A few observations:
1. For the record, we're talking about personnel movement, not number of touchdowns scored in the preseason. The Jets stand at the top of the class not by adding, but by not subtracting. They lost the third least value of any team, and backed it up by adding quality players like Yeremiah Bell (from the division-rival Dolphins, no less) and, yes, even Tim Tebow.
2. The Broncos did it the other way -- by addition. Their 422 value points lost is fourth in the conference, but their 322 points gained is #1. Manning is the big name, but Denver gained 4 other 30-point players as well, including Dreessen (36), S Mike Adams (32), DT Justin Bannan (31), S Jim Leonhard (31), and CB Tracy Porter (30).
3. Are the Texans ripe for a fall? They lost the second-most-valuable non-retiree in OT Eric Winston (to Kansas City), and lost 3 more players more valuable than marquee free agent Mario Williams (DeMeco Ryans (LB, 3, Dreessen (TE, 36), Jacoby Jones (WR, 35), and Derrick Mason (WR, 31); Williams' value was 30).
4. If the Texans falter, could the Jaguars be a sleeper in the AFC South? With the 4th-best offseason in the conference, very few losses (at 23, Mike Sims-Walker is the highest value player, lowest of any top loss in the conference), and MJD back in the fold, if the Jags get anything out of Blaine Gabbert, is it really all that far-fetched for them to go 9-7?
 |
| MJD is back . . . and with a surprisingly good offseason, might the Jaguars be too? |
Stay tuned for our review of the NFC . . .
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