Week 2 Recap / Week 3 Preview

Somewhere, Rod Tidwell is smiling at the Cardinals' early season success

WEEK 2 RECAP
A quick look at where we hit and missed in week 2, highlighting the plights of 5 teams:

1. Cardinals: Our boldest predictions of the '12 season involved the Cardinals and their Week 2 opponents, New England.  We were bullish on Arizona (our model had them at 10+ wins and a playoff berth) and seemed to be the only people on the planet bearish on New England (sub .500 for the first time since 2000).  Cardinals +13.5 was our lock of the week last week, and it hit, with plenty of room to spare.

The craziest part of the Cardinals' victory was that WR Larry Fitzgerald was all but absent from it; Fitzgerald had a single catch for 4 yards on Arizona's opening drive.  We figured the Cardinals' defense would be good this year, and through 2 weeks, the numbers justify that premise: their 34 points allowed is second in the AFC, and Football Outsiders ranks their defense 8th of 32.  Patrick Peterson is the household name, but look for names like LB Daryl Washington, LB Paris Lenon, and DE Calais Campbell to become part of NFL vernacular as the season rolls on.  We wouldn't be surprised if all 3 make the Pro Bowl.

2. Patriots: Arizona was a pretty good team, so New Englanders should stop short of entering full-fledged panic mode.  Having said that, the problems on the o-line shouldn't be too shocking -- we had the Pats' offseason fifth worst in the AFC, largely due to losing Matt Light, the most valuable player lost by any AFC team.  Light's weighted value of 65 was second only to Carl Nicks (84; he went from New Orleans to Tampa in the NFC).  Brandon Lloyd hasn't proven himself able to get in sync with Tom Brady, and New England is missing Deion Branch more than many thought it would.  It gets no easier for the Patriots this week playing in Baltimore, home of the NFL's best home field advantage, even with the "Bill Belichick after a loss" corollary looming (more on that below).

3. Niners: 2 playoff teams from last year, 2 convincing -- if not blow-out -- victories for San Francisco, the BQB's Super Bowl pick at the start of the season.  The big story here is still QB Alex Smith, who improved on last year's ranking and currently ranks second in QB rating and fourth in ESPN's Total QBR.  Again, this is a guy who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last year, and his team went 13-3.  If Smith can even crack the top half of QBs this year, watch out.

4. Jets: Fans of our other Super Bowl pick, the Jets, came back to earth this week following a 27-10 loss in Pittsburgh.  The Jets have long had trouble with the Steelers, especially in Pittsburgh, but Mark Sanchez's 10-for-27 performance was downright ugly, especially against a Steelers D missing 2 starters.  Which Sanchez is the real one -- the one who put up 48 points against Buffalo or the one who got shut out in the second half against the Steelers?  We probably won't find out this week, when the Jets travel to lowly Miami. But we'll definitely know in 2 weeks, when they play the Niners.  Stay tuned.

5. Texans: We didn't have the Texans in the playoffs at the start of the season.  At the same time, our model did have them starting 2-0 against two weak opponents, the Dolphins and the Jaguars.  Which they did.  No big deal.  And while the model now has them in the playoffs -- due as much to the putridity of the rest of the AFC South than anything else -- they face a brutal stretch the next 5 games:

Week 3: At Denver
Week 4: Home vs. Tennessee
Week 5 At New York Jets
Week 6: Home vs. Green Bay
Week 7: Home vs. Baltimore

Houston lucks out in playing the toughest teams in that stretch (Green Bay and Baltimore) at home, but regardless, they could be a half decent team and go 2-3 or even 1-4 in that stretch.  Bottom line: we should know a lot more about the Texans by mid-October.

"Hmmm . . . that schedule looks pretty tough the next 5 weeks . . ."

Last, but not least, last week we noted that teams who won by 20 or more in week 1 were 1-6 against the spread since 2009.  5 such teams won by 20 or more in week 1 this week -- the Bears, Patriots, Texans, Jets, and Ravens.  Those teams went 1-3-1 against the spread last week, with the Texans the only winner and the Ravens a push against Philly.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
See last week's post for our methodology.  We've adjusted the weightings to 81% preseason rating and 19% Pythagorean Expectation for this year.

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Chargers (10.9 expected wins), Ravens (10.3), Jets (10.1), Texans (9.3)
AFC Wild Cards: Steelers (9.9), Bengals (8.9)
New since last week: Bengals; Dropped out: Patriots (7.7)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Eagles (11.8), Falcons (11.2), Packers (11.2)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.1), Saints (10.9)
New since last week: Packers; Dropped out: Bears (10.8)

Again, it's worth pointing out the NFC's superiority over the AFC; through 2 weeks, NFC teams are 7-1 against the AFC (Indy's win over Minnesota was the AFC's lone win).  We're projecting 7 10-win teams in the NFC and just 3 in the AFC.

WEEK 3 PREVIEW

Everybody and their mother is yapping about how the Patriots are unbeatable after a loss in the Belichick era.  We at the BQB took it upon ourselves to crunch the numbers.

Patriots Record After a Loss and After a Win, Bill Belichick Era

Year	Record After a Loss	Record After a Win
2000	4-6	1-4
2001	4-1	7-3
2002	3-4	5-3
2003	2-0	12-1
2004	2-0	11-2
2005	5-0	4-6
2006	3-1	8-3
2007	0-0	15-0
2008	5-0	5-5
2009	3-1	5-6
2010	2-0	11-2
2011	2-1	10-2
2012	0-0	0-1
Total	35-14 (.714)	94-38 (.712)
Since 2003	24-3 (.889)	81-27 (.750)

Taking the Belichick era as a whole, the Pats win almost exactly as often after a loss as after a win -- the difference in win percentage is 0.2%  Since 2003, the difference is a little more pronounced -- those who speak only in headlines would shout that the Pats have lost back-to-back games only 3 times in the past 10 seasons.  And though they'd be right, the fact remains that New England was really good after wins too; they were ~14% more likely to win after a loss than after a win.  That's a little more significant, but not nearly as much as many are pontificating.  For our part, we won't consider it as we assess New England's chances in the Sunday night game at Baltimore, where they're 3 point dogs.

WEEK 3 PICKS

(Note: our model actually had Arizona winning outright last week (no joke), but we failed to print that.  To avoid such issues in the future, we're listing our picks both outright and against the spread from here on out.)

Last week, against the spread: 9-4-3

Season, against the spread: 18-11-3 (.581)
Season, outright: 24-8 (.750)

Week 3 picks (in order of confidence):

PANTHERS +1 over Giants (Panthers to win outright)

Bucs + 7 over COWBOYS (Bucs)

Niners -7 over VIKINGS (Niners)

Bengals + 3.5 over REDSKINS (Bengals)

CARDINALS +4 over Eagles (Cardinals)

Jaguars +3 over COLTS (Jaguars)

TITANS + 3.5 over Lions (Lions)

Falcons + 3 over CHARGERS (Chargers)

BEARS -9 over Rams (Bears)

Steelers -4 over RAIDERS (Steelers)

RAVENS -3 over Patriots (Ravens)

SAINTS -9 over Chiefs (Saints)

Bills -3 over BROWNS (Bills)

BRONCOS +2 over Texans (Texans)

Jets -3 over DOLPHINS (Jets)

Packers -3.5 over SEAHAWKS (Packers)



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