 |
| Great Googly Moogly, the Chiefs lost a lot of players this offseason |
You may be surprised to remember that the Chiefs went 7-9 last year and were in the hunt to win the AFC West well into December. This is probably due to the fact that they weren't a very good team last year; Pythagorean expectation only had them at only 4.5 wins. They lost their starting QB (Matt Cassel) and their best RB (Jamaal Charles) to injury, and promptly fired their coach, Todd Haley, now offensive coordinator with the Steelers.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Chiefs cleaned house in the offseason. Maybe more surprisingly, the players they brought in don't quite provide a match for the players they lost or got rid of. In short, it appears new coach Romeo Crennel will face a big challenge in improving on last year's 7 win record.
The Chiefs lost, released, or otherwise got rid of 19 players in the offseason, the most of any team we've profiled. Of those 19, 17 had positive value, where value, again, is measured using Pro Football Reference's AV values according to the following formula:
2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV
The 17 players the Chiefs lost this offseason:
#
|
Pos.
|
Player
|
Value
|
2011 Games Started
|
New Team
|
1
|
QB
|
Kyle Orton
|
42
|
8
|
Cowboys
|
2
|
CB
|
Brandon Carr
|
41
|
16
|
Cowboys
|
3
|
OT
|
Barry Richardson
|
32
|
16
|
Rams
|
4
|
C
|
Casey Weigmann
|
32
|
16
|
Free Agent
|
5
|
RB
|
Thomas Jones
|
27
|
8
|
Free Agent
|
6
|
FS
|
Jon McGraw
|
22
|
9
|
Free Agent
|
7
|
DE
|
Wallace Gilberry
|
16
|
1
|
Bucs
|
8
|
TE
|
Leonard Pope
|
15
|
10
|
Steelers
|
9
|
RB/FB
|
Le’Ron McClain
|
13
|
10
|
Chargers
|
T10
|
LB
|
Demorrio Williams
|
11
|
0
|
Chargers
|
T10
|
FS
|
Sabby Piscitelli
|
11
|
2
|
Free Agent
|
12
|
RB
|
Jackie Battle
|
9
|
4
|
Free Agent
|
T13
|
WR
|
Jerheme Urban
|
8
|
1
|
Free Agent
|
T13
|
TE
|
Anthony Becht
|
8
|
5
|
Free Agent
|
15
|
OT
|
Ryan O’Callaghan
|
7
|
0
|
Free Agent
|
16
|
QB
|
Tyler Palko
|
6
|
4
|
Free Agent
|
17
|
SS
|
Reshard Langford
|
3
|
2
|
Free Agent
|
Total
|
303
|
112
| |||
The 8 non-rookie players the Chiefs gained this offseason:
#
|
Pos.
|
Player
|
Value
|
2011 Games Started
|
Old Team
|
1
|
OT
|
Eric Winston
|
51
|
16
|
Texans
|
2
|
DB
|
Abram Elam
|
38
|
16
|
Cowboys
|
3
|
TE
|
Kevin Boss
|
34
|
11
|
Raiders
|
4
|
RB
|
Peyton Hillis
|
32
|
9
|
Browns
|
5
|
DB
|
Stanford Routt
|
29
|
15
|
Raiders
|
6
|
DB
|
Jacques Reeves
|
25
|
5
|
Texans
|
7
|
DE
|
Ropati Pitoitua
|
7
|
0
|
Jets
|
8
|
QB
|
Brady Quinn
|
5
|
0
|
Broncos
|
Total
|
221
|
56
| |||
Our observations:
1. By the numbers, the Chiefs got worse this offseason. They lost 303 value points and only gained 221 (minus 82). They also lost 112 starts from 2011 while only gaining 56 (-56).
2. They have unfilled holes at backup QB, CB, and C. Kyle Orton is listed above as having started 8 games. Admittedly, only 3 were for the Chiefs, but there's a reason the Cowboys paid him a $5 MM signing bonus -- he'll immediately rank as one of the -- if not *the* -- best backup QBs in the game. Despite our blog's name, we at BQB aren't always fans of spending on backup QBs, but in the case of the Chiefs, it may make sense; incumbent starter Matt Cassel played only 9 games last year due to a hand injury, and though he was injured only minimally before that, this season will be only his fifth as a starter, hardly a long track record. And the man the Chiefs signed to be their backup -- one Brady Quinn, the icon of this very blog -- doesn't exactly have a track record of success.
Additionally, the Chiefs have no obvious replacements for CB Brandon Carr and C Casey Weigmann, both of whom started all 16 games last year. Rodney Hudson and the newly-signed Stanford Routt appear to be the most likely candidates to step in; they'll need to step up, or the Chiefs will take a step back at 2 important positions.
3. They upgraded at OT, S, and TE. It wasn't all bad for Kansas City. Eric Winston, recently of the Texans, represents an upgrade to Barry Richardson (51 value points to 32). Newly-signed safety Avram Elam immediately becomes the most valuable safety on the roster (above both Kendrick Lewis (31) and, yes, Eric Berry (22), whose score is dragged down by last year's injury-plagued season). And at TE, the Chiefs lose the massive Leonard Pope but pick up former Giant and Raider Kevin Boss.
4. 11 guys from their roster last year aren't playing anywhere. It says "free agent" 10 times on the first table above, indicating that 10 of the guys on that list haven't been deemed good enough for any team to offer them a contract so far. Same goes for for WR Jeremy Horne, who had a value of 0 and didn't make the list. Maybe that's why the Chiefs only had 4.5 expected wins last year.
Although we like the promotion of Romeo Crennel to head coach, not much else portends well for Kansas City. They played 2.5 games better than their expectation last year, these moves didn't help, and their draft was mediocre (20th of 32). Putting it all together, they seem rather unlikely to crack the top 2 in the AFC West.
Think we're crazy? Think we're brilliant? Tell us in the comments!
Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/backquarterbackblog
Follow us on Twitter at twitter.com/TheBackupQB
Idea for a post? Email backupquarterback@gmail.com
1. By the numbers, the Chiefs got worse this offseason. They lost 303 value points and only gained 221 (minus 82). They also lost 112 starts from 2011 while only gaining 56 (-56).
2. They have unfilled holes at backup QB, CB, and C. Kyle Orton is listed above as having started 8 games. Admittedly, only 3 were for the Chiefs, but there's a reason the Cowboys paid him a $5 MM signing bonus -- he'll immediately rank as one of the -- if not *the* -- best backup QBs in the game. Despite our blog's name, we at BQB aren't always fans of spending on backup QBs, but in the case of the Chiefs, it may make sense; incumbent starter Matt Cassel played only 9 games last year due to a hand injury, and though he was injured only minimally before that, this season will be only his fifth as a starter, hardly a long track record. And the man the Chiefs signed to be their backup -- one Brady Quinn, the icon of this very blog -- doesn't exactly have a track record of success.
 |
| Maybe we should change our icon / Twitter avatar! |
3. They upgraded at OT, S, and TE. It wasn't all bad for Kansas City. Eric Winston, recently of the Texans, represents an upgrade to Barry Richardson (51 value points to 32). Newly-signed safety Avram Elam immediately becomes the most valuable safety on the roster (above both Kendrick Lewis (31) and, yes, Eric Berry (22), whose score is dragged down by last year's injury-plagued season). And at TE, the Chiefs lose the massive Leonard Pope but pick up former Giant and Raider Kevin Boss.
4. 11 guys from their roster last year aren't playing anywhere. It says "free agent" 10 times on the first table above, indicating that 10 of the guys on that list haven't been deemed good enough for any team to offer them a contract so far. Same goes for for WR Jeremy Horne, who had a value of 0 and didn't make the list. Maybe that's why the Chiefs only had 4.5 expected wins last year.
Although we like the promotion of Romeo Crennel to head coach, not much else portends well for Kansas City. They played 2.5 games better than their expectation last year, these moves didn't help, and their draft was mediocre (20th of 32). Putting it all together, they seem rather unlikely to crack the top 2 in the AFC West.
Think we're crazy? Think we're brilliant? Tell us in the comments!
Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/backquarterbackblog
Follow us on Twitter at twitter.com/TheBackupQB
Idea for a post? Email backupquarterback@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment