Do Preseason Results Matter?

Hoyer!  Daniel!  It's NFL Preseason football!

Conventional wisdom holds that preseason football is utterly meaningless.  Players and fans alike have called for the reduction of the preseason schedule to two or even no games, and most would argue that only 3 things make for a good preseason:

1. Avoiding major injuries
2. Deciding roster spots for second- and third-stringers
3. Getting the first team offense and defense into some semblance of a rhythm (without violating #1 above)

But do results matter at all?  Winning and losing can be habit-forming, and they can also be something intrinsic to team chemistry.  I'm reminded of this game from the last week of 2004, which pitted the Steelers and the Bills.  The Steelers were 14-1 and had locked home field advantage, while the Bills needed a win to make the playoffs.  Pittsburgh, despite playing such luminaries as Brian St. Pierre at QB and then-unheralded Willie Parker at RB and James Harrison at LB, won, despite having nothing on the line.  The argument is that a culture of winning had been instilled throughout the season, regardless of who was on the field.

Would such an argument apply to preseason football as well?  Does winning those games set a precedent for the regular season, even if most of the games are decided by third- and fourth-stringers?




We looked at preseason results since 2002 and compared them with regular season results for each season. It turns out that there is a positive correlation between the 2, but it is rather small for the 10 year sample, the correlation between preseason win percentage and postseason win percentage was 0.096.  The positive correlation has held in 7 of the 10 seasons:

• 2002: 0.361
• 2003: 0.366
• 2004: -0.109
• 2005: 0.108
• 2006: 0.016
• 2007: 0.160
• 2008: -0.134
• 2009: 0.047
• 2010: -0.076
• 2011: 0.179

One might think that going undefeated -- or winless -- might have a particularly strong effect on a team's psyche.  In fact, teams that do that well -- or that poorly -- do see somewhat skewed results in the regular season:

• Teams that go undefeated in the preseason make the playoffs 50% of the time
• Teams that go winless in the preseason make the playoffs 24% of the time

Compare both of those figures with the fact that 12 of 32 teams (37.5%) make the playoffs each year.  It's also notable that none of the winless teams made a Super Bowl, and the only undefeated team to make a Super Bowl was the '03 Pats, who won it.

Last, is there any effect on playing the 5th game?  There are 2 sides to this coin: some argue that the 5th game allows teams to be sharper with more reps, but others argue that it represents one extra game for starters to get injured.  It turns out there's a very slight positive impact of playing 5 games:

• Teams that play 5 games in the preseason make the playoffs 42% of the time
• The remainder of teams make the playoffs 37% of the time

Note that this year's Hall of Fame Game participants, Arizona and New Orleans, are the only 2 teams who will play 5 games this season (Arizona is 0-2 and New Orleans is 1-1).

Are Drew and Larry more likely than the rest of the league to make the playoffs this year?

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

Like us on Facebook at facebook.com/backupquarterbackblog
Follow us on Twitter at twitter.com/TheBackupQB

Idea for a post?  Email backupquarterback@gmail.com