The Bengals' offseason: Optimism, but few big moves

Bengals fans haven't been this excited in August since the days of the Ickey Shuffle . . .

[11th in a series of posts looking at many of the NFL's 32 teams and their offseasons.  Past posts: Vikings, Jets, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

Optimism abounds in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are looking for back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since Boomer Esiason and Ickey Woods roamed the backfield.

The Bengals were a legitimate playoff team last year, as evidenced by their Pythagorean expectation of 8.5 wins in what turned out to be a 9-7 season.  Against teams other than the Ravens and Steelers, Cincinnati went an impressive 9-3.  QB Andy Dalton had an impressive rookie campaign, and fellow second-year pro AJ Green is making Bengals fans quickly forget about the days they started Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocino at WR.  Lastly, we thought they had the best draft of any team in the league.

So did the Bengals back it up in free agency?  Truth is, they were pretty quiet.  Details after the jump.

[As always, we're using a modified AV formula courtesy of our friends at Pro Football Reference:

Weighted AV = 2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV]

The Bengals lost 14 players who had positive value from last year's roster:

Position	Player	’11 Games Started	Weigh-ted AV	2012 Team
RB	Cedric Benson	15	44	Packers
SS	Chris Crocker	16	38	Free Agent
G	Nate Livings	16	33	Cowboys
DE	Frostee Rucker	11	27	Browns
G	Bobbie Williams	9	26	Ravens
WR	Jerome Simpson	14	22	Vikings
CB	Kelly Jennings	1	19	Free Agent
WR	Andre Caldwell	2	19	Broncos
LB	Keith Rivers	0	19	Giants
C	Mike McGlynn	4	18	Colts
DE	Jonathan Fanene	2	16	Patriots
TE	Bo Scaife	0	16	Patriots
OLB	Brandon Johnson	0	12	Steelers
TE	Chase Coffman	0	2	Falcons
Totals		90	311

They acquired 6 players with positive value:

Position	Player	’11 Games Started	Weigh-ted AV	2011 Team
CB	Terence Newman	14	44	Cowboys
RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	6	44	Patriots
LG/LT	Travelle Wharton	16	35	Panthers
CB	Jason Allen	4	18	Texans
DE	Jamaal Anderson	1	18	Colts
RB	Aaron Brown	0	3	Lions
Totals		41	162

Our takeaways:

1. On paper, the Bengals roster has gotten less valuable.  They lost 90 starts and 311 "value" points from last year, while only gaining back 41 starts and 162 value points for a net of -51 games started and -149 value points.

2. Will teams quadruple team AJ Green?  Maybe.  Aside from TE Jermaine Gresham, there aren't really any threats in the passing game.  Cincinnati doesn't have a single WR other than Green on the roster who's started a game.  They didn't address the position at all in free agency.  Tate played in all 16 games last year and had 51 catches.  We'll find out pretty quickly if his success was a function of the Pats' offense or if he's good enough to take pressure off of Green.

Triple-teaming AJ Green didn't stop him in college, but this is the NFL . . .

3. LawFirm is an upgrade over Benson at RB.  Even though their values are an identical 44, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is younger and has fewer miles than the mercurial Benson, who remained a free agent for most of the offseason before recently signing with the Packers.  It remains to be seen whether LawFirm can carry the load that Benson carried, but he's scored 24 rushing TDs over the past 2 seasons on a total of 410 carries.  If the Bengals can avoid burning him out, he could be very productive.

4. OG may be a hole.  Cincinnati lost both starting guards from last year.  They signed Travelle Wharton (serviceable but unspectacular) from Carolina, where he started all 16 games, and took Kevin Zeilter with their second first round pick of the draft.  Both will need to perform immediately to give the still-young Dalton time to throw and open holes for the newly-acquired Green-Ellis.

5. They should be set at cornerback.  Terence Newman gave Cowboys fans fits, but as the #2 CB playing opposite the venerable Leon Hall (who had a season AV of 15 as recently as 2009), he should slide in nicely.  Barring an injury setback to Hall, who missed 7 games last year, the cornerback corps should be improved.

6. But what about strong safety?  Chris Crocker was a cap casualty, and into his old spot steps Taylor Mays, a third-year pro with 6 career starts, and none last year.  Reggie Nelson should provide stability at the other safety spot, but Mays will need to step it up or teams could find success down the middle of the field against Cincinnati.

Lots of questions for Cincinnati.  All in all, they put a bit of a damper on all the optimism generated from last season's success and their killer draft.  They'll have a grand opportunity to prove us wrong during opening weekend, though, as they visit Baltimore on Monday night.

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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