The Vikings Offseason: They Needed Help, They Didn't Get Any



How I Met Your Mother's Marshall Eriksen (right) drowns his sorrows on the Vikings' offseason

[10th in a series of posts on the offseasons of each of the NFL teams.  We'll try like crazy to get to all 32 teams, but realistically, we might not get there. 
Past posts:  Jets, Rams, Chiefs, Bucs, Titans, Bears, Browns, Redskins, and Bills.]

The Vikings struggled mightily last year.  The "Donovan McNabb at QB" experimented was an abject failure, and the Vikings stumbled to a 3-13 record.

The bright side?  They have a lot of young talent, especially on offense, led by RB Adrian Peterson (coming off an injury), WR Percy Harvin, and first rounders from last year (QB Christian Ponder) and this year (OT Matt Kalil).  And the numbers suggest they weren't quite as bad as their record indicates.  Though they only won 3 games, Pythagorean expectation suggests they should have won 5.8 games, making them the most unlucky team in the league -- they went a whopping 2-9 in one-score games last year.

The Vikes seem content to roll with their youth movement.  As a result, at least on paper, they didn't add much in the offseason.  More after the jump . . .



[As always, we're using a modified AV formula based on the metric from our friends at Pro Football Reference:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV]

The Vikings lost 16 players with positive value this offseason:

	Position	Player	2011 Games Started	Value	New Team
1	G	Steve Hutchinson	14	40	Titans
2	TE	Visanthe Shiancoe	14	38	Patriots
3	DT	Remi Ayodele	13	32	Saints
4	G	Anthony Herrera	12	27	Free Agent
5	FS	Husain Abdullah	9	22	Free Agent
6	CB	Cedric Griffin	14	21	Redskins
7	CB	Asher Allen	9	20	Retired
8	CB	Benny Sapp	4	14	Free Agent
9	TE	Jim Kleinsasser	1	13	Retired
10	WR	Greg Camarillo	0	12	Free Agent
11	SS	Tyrell Johnson	3	11	Dolphins
12	SS	Jarrad Page	5	10	SF Giants
13	OLB	Kenny Onatolu	1	6	Panthers
T14	RB	Lorenzo Booker	0	3	Bears
T14	MLB	Xavier Adibi	0	3	Bears
T14	LS	Matt Katula	0	3	Steelers
		Total	99	275

They acquired 10 non-rookies with positive value:

	Position	Player	2011 Games Started	Value	2011 Team
1	WR	Jerome Simpson	14	22	Bengals
2	CB	Chris Carr	1	18	Ravens
T3	CB	Zack Bowman	1	15	Bears
T3	LB	Marvin Mitchell	1	15	Dolphins
5	TE	John Carlson	0	14	Seahawks
6	RG/RT	Geoff Schwartz	0	10	Panthers
7	DE	Jeff Charleston	0	8	Saints
T8	RB	Lex Hilliard	4	5	Dolphins
T8	FB	Jerome Felton	3	5	Colts
T8	DE	Nick Reed	0	5	Bucs
		Total	24	117

Our observations:

1. By the numbers, the Vikings got worse, and it really wasn't close.  99 starts lost from last year, only 24 gained (minus 75).  275 value points lost, only 117 gained (minus 158).

2. Who's going to play guard?  The Vikes lost both Steve Hutchinson and Anthony Herrera, who, combined, started 26 of 32 games last year.  With Charlie Johnson (value of 46, tied for 6th on the team) moving from tackle to guard, and unheralded Brandon Fusco (value of 0, 3 games played last year) topping the depth chart at guard, the position could be a nightmare for Minnesota and their second-year QB, Christian Ponder.

ADP / Carlton: "Wait, who are my starting guards?"

3. Who's going to play Tight End?  The tight end is typically a "security blanket" for a young QB, and the Vikings just lost their top 2.  Visanthe Shiancoe moves to New England to become the third TE behind Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and ageless wonder Jimmy Kleinsasser finally secummbs to his age and retires.  Kyle Rudolph (12), a rookie last year, started 8 games and developed a good rapport with Ponder, and it'll be incumbent upon him to make a leap this year if the Vikes' offense is to improve materially.

4. Nothing even approaching a big splash in free agency.  The Vikes' most valuable pickup was Jerome Simpson (22), who would have been only the 19th-most-valuable player on last year's team.  Simpson should actually provide a nice boost to a passing attack that already has Percy Harvin and Michael Jenkins, but for him to be your marquee signing . . . well, you'd better believe the young players are going to improve.

It's hard to imagine that the Vikes' inactivity could materially help matters from last year.  Their expected wins from last year suggest they should improve on 3-13, but breaking .500 seems a tall order with such minimal additions to the roster, especially in a division where they have to play the Packers, Lions, and Bears.  Maybe in 2013.

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