Assessing Ron Jaworski's QB Rankings

Jaws released his ranking of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month

ESPN analyst and former Eagles QB Ron Jaworski completed his much-hyped list of the NFL's top 30 quarterbacks last month when he named Aaron Rodgers the top QB in football.

Jaws based his a lot of his opinion on the "eye test," or what he saw in a player from watching film.  This is totally appropraite given Jaws' background as an NFL QB, as he's well-positioned to assess a player's technique or prowess in a particular aspect of football (playing against the rush, checking down, throwing the deep ball, etc.).  Nonetheless, we thought it might be interesting to compare his rankings to the weighted AV ratings we've been using in our team previews.  As a reminder, those ratings are based on on the yearly AV metric from our friends at Pro Football Reference, using the following formula:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

You can see the two rankings side-by-side after the jump.

Jaws Top 30 QB Rankings vs. Weighted AV Rankings 

Player	Jaws’ Rank	Weighted AV Rank	Weighted AV	2011 AV	2010 AV	2009 AV
Aaron Rodgers	1	1	118	23	15	19
Drew Brees	2	3	104	20	14	16
Tom Brady	3	2	115	21	18	16
Peyton Manning	4	21	49	-	16	17
Eli Manning	5	6	82	15	12	13
B Roethlisberger	6	8	74	12	12	14
Philip Rivers	7	4	101	16	17	19
Jay Cutler	8	14	56	7	12	11
Joe Flacco	9	9	73	12	12	13
Tony Romo	10	11	65	13	6	14
Matt Ryan	11	5	84	14	16	10
Michael Vick	12	10	70	13	15	1
Matt Schaub	13	7	76	9	17	15
M Stafford	14	16	55	16	2	3
Cam Newton	15	13	57	19	-	-
Alex Smith	16	12	58	13	6	7
Josh Freeman	17	17	54	8	14	2
Matt Hasselbeck	18	20	50	9	8	7
Andy Dalton	19	23	33	11	-	-
Sam Bradford	20	26	27	3	9	-
Carson Palmer	21	14	56	8	11	10
Matt Cassel	22	22	40	3	12	7
Mark Sanchez	23	19	51	9	9	6
Ryan Fitzpatrick	24	17	54	11	9	3
Kevin Kolb	25	27	23	5	3	2
Matt Moore	26	24	31	8	2	3
Matt Flynn	27	30	8	2	1	-
Christian Ponder	28	28	15	5	-	-
Blaine Gabbert	29	29	12	4	-	-
Tim Tebow	30	25	30	8	3	-

We've highlighted a few players above who Jaws might have over- or underrated.  The most overrated?

1. Peyton Manning (Jaws: 4th; weighted AV: 21st):  The main difference here is that the AV formula weights the most recent season the highest (it's half the ranking) and Manning didn't play a single snap last year.  If you took everyone else's 2011 season out, Manning would be tied for second.  Having said that, Jaws' assessment is largely of Manning before his most recent neck surgery.  The reality is that no one outside of Broncos HQ knows how he'll bounce back in the regular season, and the AV metrics reflect that uncertainty.  As of now, they have him just below Matt Hasselbeck and just above Matt Cassel.  While it's odd to see Manning's named mentioned in the same breath as those guys, given the significant nature of his injury and the fact that he hasn't played a meaningful snap since early January, 2011, it just might be appropriate.

2. Jay Cutler (Jaws: 8th, weighted AV: 14th):  Jaws might be basing this lofty rating on Cutler's tenure with the Broncos (his '08 season, which isn't considered by these rankings, was his best).  Or he might be projecting forward, given that the Bears just acquired Brandon Marshall and the 2 will be re-united for the coming season (Marshall was Cutler's top receiver in '08).  But the numbers don't seem to justify a ranking over that of Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, or even Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub (more on the latter two later).  Cutler led the league in interceptions in '09, led the league in sacks in '10 (admittedly not all his fault), and missed the last 6 games due to injury last year, adding uncertainty to his abilities going forward.  He just doesn't seem to be justified as a top-10 QB in the NFL.

3. Sam Bradford (Jaws: 20th, weighted AV: 26th):  For all the glitz around his first season (2010), Bradford was a decidedly-average QB (QB rating of 76.5), and last season, he was awful: 1-9 as a starter, QB rating of 70.5, only 6 TDs in 10 games, and only 216 yards per game -- and the Rams were trailing most of those games.  Throw in the uncertainty around the injury that forced him out of the last 6 games of the season, and it's hard to see how Jaws ranked him above players such as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Palmer, and even Mark Sanchez.

As for the most underrated . . .

1. Carson Palmer (Jaws: 21st, weighted AV: 14th):  Palmer had an AV of 8 last year, which seems average until you consider that he basically only played half a season.  Palmer threw for 275 ypg last year on a team with a pretty good rushing attack, and he kept the Raiders nominally in the hunt in the (admittedly weak) AFC West until Week 16.  All this when he learned the playbook in the middle of the season.  And it's not like he was putrid in Cincinnati -- he posted double-digit AVs in both.  Only 11 other QBs can say that.

2. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jaws: 24th, weighted AV: 17th):  Fitzpatrick lit it up during the first half of last season, then dropped off a bit in the second half, reportedly because of a rib injury (details of which are described by his #1 target, Stevie Johnson, here).  Regardless, Fitzpatrick has had an AV of 9 or better the past 2 seasons; only 11 other QBs can say that.  Fitzpatrick seems more of a middle-of-the-road QB than one Jaws placed in the middle of the bottom third of regular quarterbacks.

3. Matt Ryan (Jaws: 11th, weighted AV: 5th): Is this the year people realize how good a quarterback Matt Ryan is?  The BQB recently participated in a fantasy draft where he happily scooped up Ryan to be his starting QB . . . in round 10.  Ryan has posted a 14 AV in each of the last 2 seasons -- only 4 other QBs put up those types of seasons the past 2 years (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Rivers).  Ryan's also durable, starting 62 of 64 regular season games since he was drafted in 2008.  With his two top-notch targets (Roddy White and Julio Jones, who should have his break-out year this year), and with Michael Turner likely losing a step in the rushing attack, perhaps this is the year the Falcons' passing attack will enter the limelight, and Ryan will really get his chance to shine in the national spotllight.

Roddy White can't believe Matt Ryan didn't crack Jaws' top 10 either

4. Matt Schaub (Jaws: 13th, weighted AV: 7th): The Texans missed the playoffs in 2010, but few people realize just how good Matt Schaub was that year.  With an AV of 17, PFR would call him one of the top 3 QBs in the league that year (just behind Tom Brady and tied with Philip Rivers).  In 2010, he had 24 TDs and only 12 interceptions on a team that went 6-10 and threw the ball frequently due to being behind.  Schaub was on pace for similar numbers last year -- 15 TDs and 6 INTs through 10 games, which projects, over 16 games, projects to an even better ratio of 24 TDs and 9.6 INTs.  His injury couldn't have come at a worse time -- with a healthy Schaub, the Texans might have been the best team in the AFC, but it doesn't detract from Schaub's performance over the first 10 games, or the 16 before that.  Barring a setback from his injury, Schaub seems poised to enter the upper echelon of QBs in 2012.

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