Week 9 Picks

They'd win by 50 if Christian Okoye roamed the backfield . . .

Another week, another missed key pick.  Aaron Rodgers' injury didn't help, but I have to say the Saints were very impressive, especially Mark Ingram.

Trying not to make life difficult on ourselves this week.  We're taking the CHIEFS -10 at home against the Jets.  I don't care who's playing QB for the Jets.  They've been atrocious in all but one game this year (two weeks ago against the Pats), and the Chiefs are sneaky-good, up to fourth in Football Outsiders advanced metrics.  They'll feast on an inept Jets team all day on Sunday.

Week 8 picks

Even with the Majik Man at the helm, Green Bay shouldn't be getting points this week

Another ugly performance last week in my battle royale against Junk Food Guy.  JFG has been keeping score; all I know is I have a lot of ground to make up.

A brief digression -- my weekly picks have stunk, but what about my overall season picks, as noted in my season preview?  Let's have a look:

Division Champs:
AFC North: Steelers (+200 at the time): Pittsburgh is a game back of Baltimore in a tight division race.  I'm not sure Monday night told us anything, but Cincinnati has fallen back a bit.  Pittsburgh plays the Ravens on Sunday night next week and can make up the game difference.  Football Outsiders, though, is skeptical, putting the Steelers' division chances at just 10%.

AFC East: New England (-400): Feeling reasonably good about this one.  The Pats are a game up on Buffalo and own the tiebreak, and FO puts them at 56% to win the division.

AFC South: Indianapolis (-160): FO has the Colts as a whopping 97% to win the division title.

AFC West: Chiefs (+650): Not looking so hot here; just a 5% division title probability

Wild cards: Titans and Jets: Blew this one.  The teams have a 1.4% and 0.5% chance of making the playoffs, respectively.

NFC North: Packers (-160): Tied atop the division with Detroit, and 70% to win their division according to FO.

NFC East: Redskins (+400): 0.8%.

NFC South: Bucs (+700): Man, has this division been bad.  Carolina leads it, and they were atrocious last week.  The 1-5 Bucs are only 2 games back but only have a 1% chance of winning the division.

NFC West: Niners (+220): A game and a half back of Arizona.  16% chance of winning the division.

NFC Wild Card: Seahawks and Bears: If the playoffs started today, both would be out, although FO gives the Seahawks a 60% chance of getting there.  Chicago, 14%.

So as of now, we've hit on 3 of 8 division champs (37.5%).  A monkey would get 25%, so we beat the monkey.

For playoff teams, we're 4 out of 12.  A monkey would get 4.5, so a little off there.

But the good news is that our Super Bowl pick - Packers over Colts -- is alive and well.  FO rates the teams as second-most likely in their conference to reach the Super Bowl (5% chance that both will).

So fear not -- the BQB won't lead you completely astray.  In fact, the Packers are out lock of the week this week, getting 1.5 points in New Orleans.  Yes, Mark Ingram returns for New Orleans, and yes, they're historically very good at home.  But advanced metrics only rate them as the 21st best team in the league, while they have Green Bay 3rd.  On a neutral site, is Green Bay really only a 1.5 point favorite?  With the 3 point home team juice, that's what this line is saying, and I think it's wrong.  Take the Packers.

Week 7 Picks

It's even more of a lock without this guy managing the clock!

For the record, my locks of the week are a shopping 1-4-1 so far this year.  Take that for what you will (translation: take the opposite and run to your bookie).  I made up a little ground on The Junkfood Guy last week but I'm still well behind for the season.  Time to start being irrational . . .

My lock of the week this week is the winless Oakland Raiders +4 at home vs. Arizona.  This is more of a bet against Arizona than anything; they've looked shaky the past several weeks against Denver and Washington, and their DVOA is actually only 19th out of 32 despite their 4-1 record.  Oakland, on the other hand, is winless but not atrocious -- Football Outsiders has them ranked better than Minnesota, who has 2 wins this season.  Oakland led the whole way against a strong San Diego team -- they'll get it done (or lose by a FG) this week.

Week 6 lines

Seahawks at home, no matter the number

The key pick continues to kill me, but I did manage to go 9-5 last week despite missing on Cincinnati by a mile.  (And for the record, yes, I had Houston last night.  At least we got a good game.

Lock of the week is SEAHAWKS -8 at home against the Cowboys.  I like Dallas a lot, but I like Seattle at home a lot more.  They're 14-4 there against the spread dating back to 2012.  Expect a similar game to Monday night, where Dallas keeps it close but the 12th man helps Seattle pull away at the end.

As for the rest of the slate . . .

Week 5 Picks

Is it finally the end for Tom Brady & Co.? (photo credit: Jennifer Long, Kansas City Star)

The Patriots' recent run of dominance is well-documented.  Since 2003, they've won every single AFC East Title except for 2008, when Tom Brady went down in week 1 with a season-ending injury.  They've won 10 games all 11 years of that stretch (even going 11-5 the year Brady was out under Matt Cassel) and 12 games 8 out of the 11 years.  To put that in perspective, from a Pythagorean expectation perspective, having a .750 winning percentage is equivalent to scoring twice as many points as you allow.

This blog -- along with 16 out of 16 ESPN national contributors -- picked New England to repeat as division champions this season.

It's been an incredible run, but 2014, as we've all seen, has been unkind.  When Brady threw a pick-6 while trying to somehow bring his team back from a 34-7 deficit in the 4th quarter in Kansas City, it may have been the end of an era.  New England lacks the blocking and tackling -- to say nothing of things like receiver separation and, yes, quarterback play -- to be considered an elite football team.  Our friends at Football Outsiders dropped them from 8th to 23rd in their DVOA rankings in just a week.

The other problem for Pats fans?  They're playing an elite football team Sunday night, one that's the best team in the NFL according to DVOA and one that's coming off a bye.

Week 4 Picks

Donovan's mama would be proud of the 3-0 Eagles

Mediocrity continues to reign in my battle royale with The Junkfood Guy.  We both went 8-7 last week against the spread, but JFG's key pick of the Colts came in while my key pick of Houston in a trap game at the Giants was a loser.  As such, JFG gains 4 points on me.

If you're scoring at home . . .

JFG: 21-22-2, 25 points
BQB: 17-26-2, 21 points

Note that we're both 1-2 in our key picks, for whatever that's worth.

When I took a look at the spreads this week, literally only one game stood out at me . . .

Week 3 picks

Seems like a long time ago, doesn't it?

My epic battle with www.junkfoodguy.com has been anything but epic.  The old reliable BQB is a whopping 9-19-2 against the spread the past two weekends.  Thankfully JFG has been mediocre himself -- 13-15-2.

The good news?  I've hit one of two key picks (worth 5 bonus points), and JFG's missed on both.  So despite a 4 game lead, we're tied in the standings at 13 points a piece.

Last week's key pick was Arizona giving 2 points against the Giants in New Jersey.  I watched most of that game (amid a relatively weak early game schedule) and, I have to say, the Giants were every bit as bad as they were the previous Monday night against Detroit.  Although sample size is a little small, our friends at Football Outsiders have put together their DVOA ratings through 2 games.  New York is 31st of 32 (lowly Jacksonville is 32nd).  What's more, the Giants are consistently weak in all 3 phases -- 24th on defense, 30th on special teams, and dead last on offense.

Enter the Houston Texans, 2-0 and just 2.5 point favorites in East Rutherford on Sunday.  At some point, the Giants have to get a win.  I don't think they keep this one close.  Our key pick is against the Giants for a second straight week.  Key pick: Texans - 2.5.

Rest of the picks after the jump . . .

Week 2 Picks

Show yourself some money and take the Cardinals this week . . .

First things first: it's 9/11, and the Ray Rice story is -- correctly -- dominating sports headlines.  I don't feel particularly qualified to talk about either, but they're more important than this blog, so I humbly ask you to consider getting involved with or donating to some of these charities:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/11/911-charities-_n_3908053.html
http://nnedv.org/
http://www.ncadv.org/
http://www.standingtogether.org.uk/

Also, check out the Junk Food Guy's excellent account of his 9/11 experience here.

The Week 1 Picks

Worry not Jags fans, the Blaine is gone, and you might even cover a double digit spread this week!

Junk Food Guy and I have agreed to terms.  We're picking every non-Thursday night game against the spread every week.  Lines are from MGM/Mirage in Vegas (via VegasInsider) at the time of publishing. Every game is worth one point, except for our "Lock of the Week," which is worth 5.

The contest pits a Bills fan and a Steelers fan, so the loser has to wear this horrific shirt to a Super Bowl party this year.  So there's that.

We're back! 2014 NFL Preview

A Super Bowl matchup between #12's . . .

We're back!  After a quasi-retirement mid-way through last season, the BQB is making his Ali-like return to the ring today with a 2014 season preview.  Special thanks to The Junk Food Guy for getting me to snap out of my Hibernol and back to the blog.  Junk Food Guy and I will be wagering something (TBD) on these picks, as well as on game picks throughout the season.

Typically, season previews -- not to mention Vegas odds -- focus a little too much on what happened the previous year.  Our friends at Bovada have odds for each division champ, and 7 of the 8 division champs from last year are again the favorite this year (Carolina is the lone outlier).  In 6 of the 7 cases, the favorite is a negative money-line value, implying more than 50% probability (here, Cincinnati is the outlier at +180, implying a 36% probability of winning the division ).

Year-to-year, though, the variance is much higher.  The median number of repeat division champs since 2003?  3 out of 8.  The most in that period was 6 in 2012 -- take out that year, and there have never been more than 4 under the current structure.

Repeat playoff teams are a little more frequent -- a median of 6 out of 12 -- but that still leaves a lot of turnover in playoff teams year to year.

With that in mind, our picks for this year's playoffs are below (you'll notice there are 3 repeat division champs and 6 repeat playoff teams).

Week 9 picks

Can Antonio Gates push the Chargers into the playoffs the way he did Kent State?

If I asked you to name me the AFC playoff teams if the season ended today, presumably you'd be able to name the Chiefs, Patriots, Colts, and Bengals as division leaders and the Broncos as arguably the best team in the conference (despite being a game back of Kansas City).  The current 6 seed?  The San Diego Chargers.  In fact, the AFC playoff picture is looking reasonably set at this point with the exception of that 6 seed.  In fact, the 5 teams you would have mentioned all have a 90%+ chance of making the playoffs according to Football Outsiders, and all have either a 2+ game lead in their division or are 2+ games ahead of the nearest wild card competitor.  

While the Chargers are leaders in the clubhouse for the 6th spot, it's a motley crew in that race:

Chargers: 4-3, 27% chance of playoffs (Football Outsiders)

Jets: 4-4, 22% chance of playoffs

Dolphins: 4-4, 7% chance of playoffs (before Thursday night win vs. Cincinnati)

Titans: 3-4, 18% chance of playoffs

Raiders: 3-4, 4% chance of playoffs

Bills: 3-5, 13% chance of playoffs

Browns: 3-5, 7% chance of playoffs

Ugh.  What a group.  While being the best of those 7 is a little like being a one-eyed man in the land of the blind, the Chargers will need to take care of business with their winnable games.  They have Denver and Kansas City twice each, along with Cincinnati, but aside from that, they don't play a team over .500.  Which is why Sunday's tilt with Washington -- one of those "west coast travels to east coast" games -- looms large.  And with 2-5 Washington sitting just a game and a half out of first in the NFC East (*mindblown*), Chargers-Redskins might be the most important game of the day tomorrow.

On to the picks . . .

Chargers -1.5 over REDSKINS: I just don't trust Washington getting less than a FG.  This is Philip Rivers' last stand, and I think he knows it.

Titans - 3.5 over RAMS: Tennessee fighting for their playoff lives.  Rams have written off the season.

JETS + 5.5 over Saints (Saints to win): Far bigger game for the Jets than the Saints.  Vegas overreaction to last week's shellacking at the hands of Cincinnati.

COWBOYS - 10.5 over Vikings: Speaking of teams who have written off the season.  And Dallas, for all its mediocrity, does pretty well in blowing out bad teams.

Chiefs - 3.5 over BILLS: EJ or no EJ, KC's unbeaten streak rolls out.

PANTHERS - 7.5 over Falcons: So many of these picks have been a pick against a really bad team.  The Falcons definitely qualify, with last week's stinker against Arizona showing exactly what they're capable of on the road.

RAIDERS - 2.5 over Eagles: I saw the Eagles in person last week.  They're worse than Atlanta.

SEAHAWKS - 16.5 over Bucs: The Bucs might be worse than Philly.

BROWNS +2.5 over Ravens (Browns to win): Emotional game for Cleveland.  Baltimore went into last week's bye with a bad taste in their mouths.  We'll see how they react -- I think poorly.

PATRIOTS - 6.5 over Steelers: Another decent team beating a really bad team.  Pittsburgh has problems in all facets.

Colts - 2.5 over Texans: Seriously, this is easy.

Bears + 10.5 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Chicago should keep this one close.  At some point, the injuries are going to catch up to Green Bay.

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Tonight: Bengals -3

Maybe if these guys were involved . . .

The Bengals have won 4 straight.  The Dolphins have lost 4 straight.  Don't make this one harder than it is.

THE PICK: Bengals 34, Dolphins 21

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Week 8 picks

"I knew Calvin Johnson, I served with Calvin Johnson.  Mr. Bryant, you're no Calvin Johnson . . ."

LAST WEEK: 9-6 straight-up, 5-10 ATS
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 ATS
SEASON: 72-35 straight-up, 49-55-2

Cowboys + 3.5 over LIONS (Lions to win): Lions by a FG is likely.

JAGUARS + 16.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Jaguars seem to have a pulse of late.

Dolphins + 6.5 over PATRIOTS (Dolphins to win): This is the Dolphins' season.  They pull out a shocking win at Foxboro.

CHIEFS - 7.5 over Browns: Chiefs and 135 dB crowd overwhelm Weeden & Co.

Bills + 11.5 over SAINTS (Saints to win): Thad Lewis acquits himself well against a porous Saints D to keep it close.

Giants + 5.5 over EAGLES (Giants to win): Eagles have lost 9 straight -- NIINE TIMES -- and are giving points.

Steelers - 2.5 over RAIDERS: Steelers get first win in Oakland since 1995.

Jets + 6.5 over BENGALS (Jets to win): Bengals held on by skin of their teeth last two games -- they regress as the Jets carry momentum from last week to a win.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Falcons: It's only this close a line on reputation -- Arizona has the better team, America just doesn't believe it yet.

BRONCOS - 12.5 over Redskins: Broncos roar back from first -- and maybe only -- loss of the regular season.

Packers - 9.5 over VIKINGS: Vikings in disarray, Packers chugging along.

Seahawks - 10.5 over RAMS: Unless Brett Favre comes to the rescue . . .

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Tonight: Bucs + 6.5

Oh dear . . .

Not as easy a pick as you might think.  Tampa has kept things reasonably close this season at home:

Week 2: Lost to Saints, 16-14
Week 4: Lost to Cardinals, 13-10
Week 6: Lost to Eagles, 31-20
Average margin of loss: 5.3

And Carolina on the road . . .

Week 2: Lost to Bills, 24-23
Week 5: Lost to Cardinals, 22-6
Week 6: Beat Vikings, 35-10
Average margin of victory: 2.6

I feel that the most likely outcome might be Panthers by a TD, but I think Vegas is overreacting to their last 2 weeks.  The chance of a Tampa win is higher than the chance of a blowout.

THE PICK: Panthers 19, Bucs 13

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Week 7 Picks

Great Googly Moogly, the Ch(i)efs are 6-0!

At 6-0, the Chiefs seem like a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs.  As Fifth Down points out, only once since 1990 had a team started 6-0 and missed the playoffs (the '03 Vikings) . . .until the Chiefs' division rival the Broncos did it in 2009 (after the article was published).  We now have the interesting situation of having the league's only 2 undefeated teams in the same division, something that apparently hasn't happened this late int he season since the 30's.  All of which set up a pretty great Week 10 matchup between KC and Denver.  It says here both will win . . . and cover . . . this weekend.

LAST WEEK: 8-6 straight-up, 5-9 against the spread
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 against the spread
SEASON TO DATE: 63-28 straight-up, 44-45-2

Patriots - 4.5 over JETS: Jets emerging as weaker than we might have thought.  Pats can win this one by a TD.

Cowboys + 2.5 over EAGLES (Cowboys to win): A pretty huge game in the NFC East.  Dallas just more talented on both sides of the ball, even without DeMarcus Ware.

FALCONS -7.5 over Bucs: Can't take Tampa on the road under any circumstances.

Bengals - 2.5 over LIONS: Detroit has been pretty up-and-down this season.  This feels like a fallback game after a solid win over Cleveland last week.

PANTHERS - 6.5 over Rams: Line is two points too low after St. Louis's shocking performance last week.

Bears + 1.5 over REDSKINS (Bears to win): Shocking line.

DOLPHINS - 8.5 over Bills: Miami coming off a bye, Bills got all the magic they could out of Thad Lewis already.

Chargers - 7.5 over JAGUARS: Not enough points to make me comfortable taking Jacksonville.

TITANS + 4.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Toughest pick of the weekend.  Ended up taking the points at home.

Browns + 10.5 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Too many points, Vegas overreacting to Browns' discouraging loss to Detroit.

Ravens -+1.5 over STEELERS (Ravens to win): Pittsburgh was really *not* impressive last week against the Jets.  Anyone who thinks the tide has turned based on that win is off base.

CHIEFS - 6.5 over Texans: Houston has to cover a game before I think about legitimately picking them the rest of the season.

Broncos - 6.5 over COLTS: Peyton Manning's swan song.  It really might be all downhill from here, but I say he puts up 45 on his former team.

Vikings + 3.5 over GIANTS (Vikings to win): How the Giants are more than 3 point favorites against anyone is seriously baffling to me.

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