Week 2 Picks

Show yourself some money and take the Cardinals this week . . .

First things first: it's 9/11, and the Ray Rice story is -- correctly -- dominating sports headlines.  I don't feel particularly qualified to talk about either, but they're more important than this blog, so I humbly ask you to consider getting involved with or donating to some of these charities:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/11/911-charities-_n_3908053.html
http://nnedv.org/
http://www.ncadv.org/
http://www.standingtogether.org.uk/

Also, check out the Junk Food Guy's excellent account of his 9/11 experience here.

Ugly start for your old pal the BQB.  4-9-2 in games from Sunday and Monday, losing by a full 2 games to the Junk Food Guy.  Both of our projected Super Bowl champions lost (although both were big underdogs to last year's participants on the road), and our projected division champions went a whopping 2-6 outright.

Let's not over-react, though.  JFG and I both blew our lock of the week -- although mine was at least a push until a garbage Philadelphia touchdown late -- so he's only 2 points ahead of me heading into week 2.

Speaking of overreacting, Vegas did on several of its Week 2 lines.  It's easy to think one thing based on a full offseason's worth of analysis and moves, and then suddenly have the rhetoric change massively when you lose a division road game (New England), dominate an extremely weak opponent with no quarterback (Minnesota beating St. Louis), lose to a team everyone thought would be crappy (Chicago), or dominate a playoff team with a supposed home field advantage (Tennessee beating Kansas City).  Consequently, the week 2 lines are a lot different from what you would have expected in week 1.

In some cases this isn't justified (although in others, it absolutely is justified).  In the case of our lock of the week, the Arizona Cardinals, it's totally justified.  The Giants, Arizona's opponents this Sunday, were putrid on Monday night against Detroit.  This blog wasn't high at all on the Lions, and they didn't even play that well, but, seriously, did you guys see the Giants?  You knew 5 minutes into the game that it wasn't going to be close.  New York's inability to get anything going on either side of the ball was striking.  It's like nothing has changed there.  Arizona, on the other hand, gutted out a close win against San Diego, which is about what people expected.

Without the benefit of week 1, the Giants are likely favored at home against the Cardinals.  As of now, Arizona is favored by 2.  Even though it's a west coast team playing on short rest traveling to the east coast for an early game, a field goal's not enough.  Arizona's a much better team; to get them giving less than a field goal is criminal.

To the rest of the picks:

Tonight (just for fun -- we're not scoring Thursday night games): 
Steelers + 2.5 vs. RAVENS: These games are almost always 3 points or less, and the Ravens are likely reeling from the Ray Rice saga.

Sunday:
Lions +3 vs. PANTHERS: No strong opinion here, so taking the points.

Dolphins PICK vs. BILLS: Plain and simple, Miami is the better team.

Jaguars +6 vs. REDSKINS: Maybe I'm the one overreacting, but I don't think the Redskins should be favored by 6 against anyone right now.

TITANS -3.5 vs. Cowboys: A case of completely-justified overreaction.  We thought Dallas's defense would be atrocious and it was.  Jake Locker might be a top-5 fantasy QB this weekend.

Patriots -3 vs. VIKINGS: More unjustified overreaction.  This line would have been 7 if not for week 1.

BROWNS + 6.5 vs. Saints: Cleveland's offense didn't look half bad last week against Pittsburgh.  The Steelers aren't an elite defense anymore, but they probably are no worse than New Orleans.

Falcons + 5 vs. BENGALS: Should be a great game to watch.  I think someone wins by a FG.

BUCS -5 vs. Rams: I think Tampa just had 3 really bad quarters in week 1.  Look for them to bounce back here.  Rumor has it the Rams looked at bringing in Shane Falco at QB this week.

Seahawks -6 vs. CHARGERS: We weren't high on San Diego to start the year; no reason to think they'll win the game, so it's hard to take them getting less than a touchdown.

Texans -3 vs. RAIDERS: Another tough one.  Taking the better team.

PACKERS -8 vs. Jets: Bounce back game for our projected NFC champ.

BRONCOS -13 vs. Chiefs: Justified overreaction.  Especially with Kansas City's defensive injuries, Denver might put up 50.

Bears +7 vs. Niners: Line would have been 4 if not for week 1.

Monday:
COLTS -3 VS. Eagles: Our projected AFC champ gets a convincing win at home.

Enjoy the games.

Facebook.com/BackupQuarterbackBlog
Twitter.com/TheBackupQB