The Week 1 Picks

Worry not Jags fans, the Blaine is gone, and you might even cover a double digit spread this week!

Junk Food Guy and I have agreed to terms.  We're picking every non-Thursday night game against the spread every week.  Lines are from MGM/Mirage in Vegas (via VegasInsider) at the time of publishing. Every game is worth one point, except for our "Lock of the Week," which is worth 5.

The contest pits a Bills fan and a Steelers fan, so the loser has to wear this horrific shirt to a Super Bowl party this year.  So there's that.

As noted above, we're not picking Thursday night games.  The games are usually terrible with both teams on short rest and it makes for two blog posts instead of one (baby steps).  However, if you're interested, I would have absolutely gone on Seattle as 6 points favorites tonight against San Francisco.  Although the past two years have bucked the trend (although last year doesn't count because Baltimore was on the road), the evidence strongly supports the defending champs at home on opening night.  Throw in the Qwest Field factor as the 12th man celebrates the first title in the city of Seattle ever among current teams (although the Seattle Storm of the WNBA has 2), and you're looking at a good to bet to win by a TD or more.  Even though we took Green Bay to win it all, they're going to start 0-1.  Take the Seahawks tonight, thank me tomorrow.

As for Sunday and Monday's games, our lock of the week game is the Jaguars +10 against the EAGLES (home teams in caps).  There's a great post here on recent performance of double digit favorites.  In short, they cover well short of 50% of the time.  More generally, I don't like going with big favorites in the early weeks of a season before we really know anything.  With a totally-serviceable Chad Henne at the helm, some decent weapons, an underrated defense, and an Eagles team everyone's a little too high on, I'm taking the Jags and the 10 points.

The rest of the week 1 picks are below.  Enjoy the return of football!!

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FALCONS +3 over Saints: I'm down on the Saints this year, and a FG at home is too much in the Georgia Dome.

Vikings +4 over RAMS: Can't believe Shaun Hill is giving more than a field goal.

STEELERS -6.5 over Browns: Line's a little too high but the Browns are notorious for scoring very few points in Pittsburgh.

JETS -5 over Raiders: Rookie QB leading a west-coast team on the road against a Rex Ryan-coached east-coast team.

Bengals +2.5 over RAVENS: This is the year things fall apart for Baltimore.

BEARS -7 over Bills: Feels like a fair line.  I do like the Bears' offense this year.

Redskins +3 over TEXANS: Houston went 2-14 last year.  Not sure they should be favored against even the lowly Redskins, who were 3-13.

CHIEFS -3 over Titans: I think both teams make the playoffs this year.  I like the one with the second-loudest stadium in the NFL.  Note: this line opened at 6.   Lot of Tennessee money.

Patriots -4.5 over DOLPHINS: Look it up: home advantage is non-existent for the Dolphins.  They're actually better on the road.

BUCS -2.5 over Panthers: Another fair line

NINERS -5 over Cowboys: Dallas' defense is historically bad.

Colts +7 over BRONCOS: Almost the lock of the week.  At 7.5 it might have been.  This happened only 10.5 months ago, and it wasn't as close as the score indicated.

Giants + 5.5 over LIONS: Lions fans are psyched about the coaching change.

CARDINALS -3 over Chargers: People forget that Arizona would have been the second-best team in the AFC last year by DVOA.  Look for them to keep it going in a game that will end at 2 a.m. Tuesday morning.