Week 4 Picks

Donovan's mama would be proud of the 3-0 Eagles

Mediocrity continues to reign in my battle royale with The Junkfood Guy.  We both went 8-7 last week against the spread, but JFG's key pick of the Colts came in while my key pick of Houston in a trap game at the Giants was a loser.  As such, JFG gains 4 points on me.

If you're scoring at home . . .

JFG: 21-22-2, 25 points
BQB: 17-26-2, 21 points

Note that we're both 1-2 in our key picks, for whatever that's worth.

When I took a look at the spreads this week, literally only one game stood out at me . . .



. . . and that was the Philadelphia Eagles getting 5 points against the struggling San Francisco 49ers.  This is one where the spread just doesn't make sense.  By any metric, Philly is the better team. They're 3-0 (albeit against weak competition), San Fran is 1-2.  According to our friends at Football Outisders, the Eagles are somewhere between the 7th and 8th best team in the league by advanced metrics, while San Fran is somewhere between 12th and 18th by the same metrics.  The Eagles have played outstanding in clutch situations, while the Niners have wilted in the second half two weeks in a row.  Not to mention rumors of Niners coach Jim Harbaugh jumping ship to coach his alma mater, the Michigan Wolverines.

The Niners are at home, so they get the 2.5-3 point benefit of the doubt, but how on earth are they laying more than a field goal here?

Our key pick is the Eagles +5 over the Niners on Sunday.

As for the rest of the picks:

Thursday Night (not for the contest):

REDSKINS - 3.5 over Giants: The Giants acquitted themselves well last week, but the Thursday night game has seen all three home favorites dominate on the short rest.  Washington continues the trend here.

Sunday Early Games:

Raiders +4 over Dolphins in London: What a treat for the people of the UK to see these two juggernauts.

Packers -1.5 over BEARS: The BQB's Super Bowl pick could be in real trouble if they lose this one and drop to 1-3.  It says here Aaron Rodgers doesn't let that happen.

Bills + 3 over TEXANS: Buffalo still has a ton of weapons, and Houston showed some chinks in its formidable armor last week.  This one may come down to who which shaky QB makes fewer mistakes.

Titans + 7 over COLTS: Sticking with Jake Locker in a divisional game.  The Colts' lone win this year remains against Jacksonville.

RAVENS - 3.5 over Panthers: Baltimore is the better team.  Steve Smith, Sr. is fired up.

Lions - 1.5 over JETS: Make no mistake, the Jets, as currently constructed, have nothing approaching a home field advantage.  One three and out and the boo birds will be out.

STEELERS - 7 over Bucs: Can't in good conscience pick Tampa.

CHARGERS -13 over Jaguars: Or Jacksonville.

VIKINGS +3 over Falcons: Interesting game.  Atlanta is notoriously bad outside of their dome and Teddy Bridgewater has a full week to prepare.  I think Asiata & Co. keep it interesting and maybe pull off a win.

COWBOYS +3 over Saints: Similar situation to Vikings-Falcons.

Patriots - 3.5 over CHIEFS: The alarm in Boston is overstated.  Kansas City may not score double digits.

As always, enjoy the games.

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