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| A Super Bowl matchup between #12's . . . |
Typically, season previews -- not to mention Vegas odds -- focus a little too much on what happened the previous year. Our friends at Bovada have odds for each division champ, and 7 of the 8 division champs from last year are again the favorite this year (Carolina is the lone outlier). In 6 of the 7 cases, the favorite is a negative money-line value, implying more than 50% probability (here, Cincinnati is the outlier at +180, implying a 36% probability of winning the division ).
Year-to-year, though, the variance is much higher. The median number of repeat division champs since 2003? 3 out of 8. The most in that period was 6 in 2012 -- take out that year, and there have never been more than 4 under the current structure.
Repeat playoff teams are a little more frequent -- a median of 6 out of 12 -- but that still leaves a lot of turnover in playoff teams year to year.
With that in mind, our picks for this year's playoffs are below (you'll notice there are 3 repeat division champs and 6 repeat playoff teams).
DIVISION PICKS
AFC North Champ: Steelers (+200 odds to win division). Least of the evils in a very weak division. Expect a letdown year from Andy Dalton following his massive contract, and expect the Ravens and Browns to be below .500. With what should be a potent offense, Pittsburgh can win 9 or 10 games if Dick LeBeau's defense is average.
AFC East Champ: New England (-400). Some have accused this blog of an anti-Patriots bias, but the facts speak for themselves: since 2003, every Patriots team that saw Tom Brady play at least one complete game won a division title. New England does it again.
AFC South Champ: Indianapolis (-160). Andrew Luck makes another leap in his third year as the Texans, Titans, and Jaguars fail to mount a serious challenge.
AFC West Champ: Chiefs (+650). Lest anyone forget, this team started the season 9-0 last year. Although they've lost a bit on the offensive line, the skill positions have had a year to improve and gel together under Andy Reid's offense. It says here Peyton Manning hits the wall, the Chargers fail to capitalize, and the Chiefs take the division.
AFC Wild Cards: Titans and Jets. Jake Locker and Geno Smith become legitimate second-tier starting QBs and take advantage of underrated offensive weapons (Kendall Wright, Bishop Sankey, Eric Decker, Chris Johnson) and dominant defenses en route to playoff berths.
NFC North Champ: Packers (-160). Green Bay won the division despite playing most of the second half of the year without Aaron Rodgers. He still might be the best player in football, and he's back at full strength.
NFC East Champ: Redskins (+400). When he was healthy, Robert Griffin III was an all-pro QB and as unique a weapon as any in the NFL. If he's back, the Redskins are the class of a weak division.
NFC South Champ: Bucs (+700). Josh McCown was 4th in DVOA among QBs last year. Lovie Smith averaged 9 wins during his tenure in Chicago, 9.5 if you take out his 5-11 first season. Doug Martin is back and healthy. The Panthers lost a ton of weapons and the Saints are a year older.
NFC West Champ: Niners (+220). San Francisco's offense will improve, making up for its suspension and injury issues on defense. While Seattle still looms, I just see a post-Super Bowl malaise from the Seahawks, and the Niners will be there to pick up the pieces.
NFC Wild Cards: Seahawks and Bears. Seattle keeps things together to grab a wild card and the Bears' potent offense scores enough points to keep them playing in January.
PLAYOFF PICKS
Wild Card Round: Steelers over Titans, Chiefs over Jets, Niners over Bears, Seahawks over Bucs
Division Round: Patriots over Steelers, Colts over Chiefs (again), Packers over Seahawks, Niners over Redskins
Championship Round: Colts over Patriots, Packers over Niners
Super Bowl XLIX: Packers 31, Colts 27
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