Tonight: Bucs + 6.5

Oh dear . . .

Not as easy a pick as you might think.  Tampa has kept things reasonably close this season at home:

Week 2: Lost to Saints, 16-14
Week 4: Lost to Cardinals, 13-10
Week 6: Lost to Eagles, 31-20
Average margin of loss: 5.3

And Carolina on the road . . .

Week 2: Lost to Bills, 24-23
Week 5: Lost to Cardinals, 22-6
Week 6: Beat Vikings, 35-10
Average margin of victory: 2.6

I feel that the most likely outcome might be Panthers by a TD, but I think Vegas is overreacting to their last 2 weeks.  The chance of a Tampa win is higher than the chance of a blowout.

THE PICK: Panthers 19, Bucs 13

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