Week 5 Picks

Is it finally the end for Tom Brady & Co.? (photo credit: Jennifer Long, Kansas City Star)

The Patriots' recent run of dominance is well-documented.  Since 2003, they've won every single AFC East Title except for 2008, when Tom Brady went down in week 1 with a season-ending injury.  They've won 10 games all 11 years of that stretch (even going 11-5 the year Brady was out under Matt Cassel) and 12 games 8 out of the 11 years.  To put that in perspective, from a Pythagorean expectation perspective, having a .750 winning percentage is equivalent to scoring twice as many points as you allow.

This blog -- along with 16 out of 16 ESPN national contributors -- picked New England to repeat as division champions this season.

It's been an incredible run, but 2014, as we've all seen, has been unkind.  When Brady threw a pick-6 while trying to somehow bring his team back from a 34-7 deficit in the 4th quarter in Kansas City, it may have been the end of an era.  New England lacks the blocking and tackling -- to say nothing of things like receiver separation and, yes, quarterback play -- to be considered an elite football team.  Our friends at Football Outsiders dropped them from 8th to 23rd in their DVOA rankings in just a week.

The other problem for Pats fans?  They're playing an elite football team Sunday night, one that's the best team in the NFL according to DVOA and one that's coming off a bye.