Week 10 Preview and Picks

Andrew Luck's 1st Half of 2012 is nothing short of remarkable

Following last week’s emotional 23-20 victory over the Dolphins, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about the Colts.  Consider that the Colts:

·         Went 2-14 last year

·         Parted ways with Peyton Manning, maybe the greatest quarterback of this generation

·         They had the second-worst offseason in the AFC according to our metrics

·         We had them at 2.8 expected wins for the year, good for third-worst in the league.  And we weren’t alone.

·         They went 2-3 in their first five games and had a point differential of -45.

·         They’re starting a rookie quarterback.

·         They announced their coach was diagnosed with leukemia and was leaving the team indefinitely.

·         His interim replacement, Bruce Arians, prompted a Facebook group asking for his firing while offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh (Steelers fans got Todd Haley – hmmm . . .)

So it’s really nothing short of remarkable that the Colts sit at 5-3 and would make the playoffs if they started today.  What’s particularly surprising is that the Colts are doing all this with the #1 overall pick starting at QB from opening day.  We’ve seen recent examples of rookie QBs carrying their teams to success (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez both guided their teams to conference title games in ’08 and ’09), but those guys were either later draft picks (Flacco) or were picked by teams who were at least decent the year before (both). Because a team has to have the worst record in the previous year to get the number 1 pick (translation: they stunk then, they’ll probably stink again), it’s far more rare for a team at the top of the draft to even smell the playoffs.  In fact, it’s only happened once since the merger.

Performance of QBs Drafted Number 1 Overall Since 1970

	Player	Year Drafted	Team	Record Through First 8 Starts	Team Record in First Year	Playoffs?
1	Andrew Luck	2012	IND	5-3	?	?
2	Michael Vick	2001	ATL	4-4	7-9	No
3	John Elway	1983	DEN	3-5	9-7	Yes
4	Carson Palmer	2003	CIN	3-5	8-8	No
5	Jeff George	1990	IND	3-5	7-9	No
6	Jim Plunkett	1971	NE	3-5	6-8	No
7	Terry Bradshaw	1970	PIT	3-5	5-9	No
8	S. Bartkowski	1975	ATL	3-5	4-10	No
9	Eli Manning	2004	NYG	2-6	6-10	No
10	David Carr	2002	HOU	2-6	4-12	No
11	Alex Smith	2005	SF	2-6	4-12	No
12	Jamarcus Russell	2007	OAK	2-6	4-12	No
13	Drew Bledsoe	1993	NE	1-7	5-11	No
14	V. Testaverde	1987	TB	1-7	4-11	No
15	Peyton Manning	1998	IND	1-7	3-13	No
16	Tim Couch	1999	CLE	1-7	2-14	No
17	Troy Aikman	1989	DAL	0-8	1-15	No

We tried to project Luck against this group back in April when he was drafted.  Through 8 games his performance – at least as reflected by the team’s record – is outpacing everyone in a fairly distinguished group.  Only Elway’s ’83 Broncos made the playoffs, and they were bounced by Seattle in the first round (back when Seattle was in the AFC) and really had a platoon play at QB with Elway and Steve DeBerg.  And only Michael Vick won even half of his first 8 games – and many of those were in his second season.

In short, especially in a weak AFC, Andrew Luck and the Colts could well make history this year.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Despite all the accolades we just bestowed upon Andrew Luck, we’re not quite ready to put Indy into the playoffs.  San Diego has snatched the 6 seed in the AFC from Miami on the strength of their convincing (at least via score) win over Kansas City.  Our 2 projected 6 seeds – San Diego and Tampa – square off on Sunday, and it’s likely that the loser will drop from the projected playoff field.

(Projections are 60% weighted Pythagorean expectation and 40% preseason ranking.)

AFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Texans (11.6 wins)	Texans (11.1)	Jets (10.9)	Texans (7-1)
2	Ravens (10.3)	Ravens (9.9)	Steelers (10.5)	Ravens (6-2)
3	Patriots (9.9)	Patriots (9.8)	Chargers (9.3)	Patriots (5-3)
4	Broncos (9.4)	Broncos (8.9)	Titans (8.3)	Broncos (5-3)
5	Steelers (9.9)	Steelers (9.6)	Ravens (10.2)	Colts (5-3)
6	Chargers (8.6)	Dolphins (8.6)	Bengals (10.0)	Steelers (5-3)

NFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Falcons (13.34)	Bears (13.0)	Niners (14.3)	Falcons (8-0)
2	Bears (13.33)	Niners (13.0)	Saints (14.0)	Bears (7-1)
3	Niners (12.9)	Falcons (13.0)	Packers (12.3)	Niners (6-2)
4	Giants (9.9)	Giants (10.5)	Eagles (9.3)	Giants (6-3)
5	Packers (10.9)	Packers (10.4)	Bears (11.6)	Packers (6-3)
6	Bucs (8.7)	Bucs (8.1)	Cardinals (10.6)	Seahawks (5-4)

Last week, we saw a gaggle of six teams within a half a game of the 6 spot.  This week, that total has been cut to three, with the Seahawks (8.7), Lions (8.5), and Saints (8.3) all remaining in the hunt. 

Also, San Francisco becomes the odd-team out in the race for an NFC bye.  Atlanta – stuck at #3 in our projections despite their undefeated season --  leapfrogged the Niners and Falcons, which is less a function of their win over Dallas (which was unconvincing) as it is of their relatively weak preseason projection (10.4 wins, vs. 11.6 for Chicago and 14.3 for San Fran).  That figure becomes less and less important over the course of the year in our projections, which is good for the Falcons and bad for San Francisco.  This week, we reached the tipping point.

"The BQB didn't even give us a bye before this week?"  "I dunno, he said something about only
scoring 2 points in the playoffs or something . . ."

YOU SHOULD READ THIS

Justin Halpern may have flopped with his TV show, but his “hacked” segments on Grantland are fantastic.  If you missed it, here’s a look at Tim Tebow’s inbox.  Belichick is probably my favorite.

WEEK 10 PICKS

Missed our top 3 picks last week, went 9-2 otherwise.  Weird.

LAST WEEK: 9-5 against the spread, 10-4 outright

SEASON: 68-60-5 against the spread (.531), 82-51 outright (.617)

(picks in order of confidence against the spread, outright winner in parentheses)

BEARS -1 over Texans (Bears)

JAGUARS +3 over Colts (Jaguars)

SAINTS +2.5 over Falcons (Falcons)

PANTHERS +3.5 over Broncos (Panthers)

NINERS -11 over Rams (Niners)

BENGALS +4 over Giants (Bengals)

EAGLES +1 over Cowboys (Eagles)

Jets +6.5 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks)

Bills +11 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)

Raiders +7.5 over RAVENS (Ravens)

Titans +6 over DOLPHINS (Dolphins)

Chiefs +11.5 over STEELERS (Steelers)

Chargers +3 over BUCS (Bucs)

Lions -2 over VIKINGS (Lions)

Think we’re crazy?  Think we’re brilliant?  Speak up in the comments!

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Week 9 Preview and Picks

Cam Newton's Panthers have as many wins as he has fingers up,
but that's likely to change in the second half of the season

Our new layout and avatar lasted all of a week.  Last week, we looked at the best- and worst-case scenarios for newly-appointed Chiefs starting QB Brady Quinn, whose picture adorned the side of this blog and served as our Twitter avatar.  Quinn’s line in his start against Oakland?  2-for-4 for 1 yard, 1 interception, and 1 head injury.  Yikes.  Matt Cassel returns to the starting lineup tonight, and Brady Quinn returns to the top of the webpage (albeit with a friend whose wardrobe we detailed here).

As we hit the midpoint of the 2012 NFL season, we look at teams who have deviated significantly from their early season performance.  More than a few have started out either hot or cold and currently resemble a far different team than they did in weeks 1-3.  A deeper dive after the jump.

Feast your eyes . . .

There are no words . . .

Just a heads-up, Pittsburgh's going with its throwbacks this season.  The BQB's email box has been blowing up with pictures and descriptions -- from jailbird to bumblebee to things I can't print on the internet.

Suffice to say the RG3 and the Redskins -- Pittsburgh's opponents on Sunday -- will be distracted.

Also, if you missed it, our week 8 preview / picks column is here.  We nailed our pick of the week last night.  That one may come back to bite Minnesota come playoff time.  The Vikes now sit at 5-3; given the inequality of the 2 conferences, it's totally feasible that a 10-6 team misses the playoffs in the NFC.

Enjoy the weekend's games.

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Week 8 Preview and Picks

Romeo, would you like to buy a pronoun?

Chiefs Head Coach Romeo Crennel announced Monday that he was replacing starting quarterback Matt Cassel – he of the 6-year, $63 million contract – with former first-rounder and, until this week, the face of this blog, one Brayden Tyler Quinn.  (As you can see, we’ve changed our avatar to reflect that Quinn is, in fact, no longer a backup QB).  Crennel opened a competition the week before last – a move lambasted by many but supported by, among others, our friends at Caught Looking -- and announced this week that Quinn would be the starter for the forseeable future.

Crennel’s rationale:

“I felt like the most impactful move I could make to get everybody’s attention was to change the quarterback.  I think that will get everybody’s attention, and hopefully that impacts the team because the quarterback position is the one that has the spotlight on him . . .

We need to coach better and we need to play better, and if we do things, we can be better, but my biggest deal was my gut was telling me we need to impact that team by changing that dynamic.”

Right on, Romeo.  Not sure we had a coherent English sentence in there, but the read I’m getting is that you want to shake things up for your 1-5 football team.  Fair enough.

Does this ever work?  After the jump, we had a look at the value of quarterback continuity over the past 2 seasons.

Week 7 Preview and Picks

Our model says losing Revis will cost the Jets a little over a game this year

[10/19 update, 9:30 a.m.: A brief word on last night's game, which was played following the original publishing of this post.  As we tweeted and put on Facebook last night, we took the Niners to cover the 7.5 point spread.  You know what happened.  We'd just like to go on record as saying that we agree with Harbaugh's decision.  Declining the penalty leads to a single kneel-down to end the game. Accepting it -- and taking the safety -- leaves the possibility, however remote, that Seattle could go onside kick --> score --> onside kick --> score.  The chances are low with 45 seconds and no timeouts, and yes, something crazy could happen on the snap for the kneel-down, but if the BackupQB were coaching the Niners, he'd have done the same thing.

Our original post starts after the jump . . .]

Week 6 Preview and Picks

"No, Coach Haley, I can't believe the BQB has us in the playoffs either . . ."

Pittsburgh looked like garbage last night in their 26-23 loss to lowly Tennessee.  Yesterday, we predicted the Steelers win but not cover the 6-point spread, which might have been true had Mike Tomlin not turned into Strom Thurmond with his conservative play-calling during the Steelers’ two-minute drill.  Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham (nicknamed “Po Sweezy” by his teammates) had hit a career-long 52-yarder earlier in the fourth quarter.  So Tomlin trotted him out there for a 54-yarder with 50 seconds on the clock and Tennessee having used none of its timeouts.  Shockingly, Suisham’s kick came up short, and Tennessee took advantage of terrific field position to waltz down the field for Rob Bironas’ game-winner.

Steeler Nation can’t be happy about last night’s result, but there can be happy about how weak the competition looks for the AFC Wild Card especially the second one.  Entering this weekend, exactly 5 of the AFC’s 16 teams are over .500.  Which means that, barring a resurgence from one of the teams at the very bottom of the conference, (at least) one of these teams is making the playoffs:

2-2 or 2-3 Teams in the AFC

Team (record)	Best win	Road record	Point Differential
Colts (2-2)	GB	0-1	-29
Steelers (2-3)	PHI	0-3	+1
Jets (2-3)	At MIA	1-1	-34
Bills (2-3)	KC	1-2	-58
Dolphins (2-3)	At CIN	1-2	0
Broncos (2-3)	PIT	0-2	+21
TOTAL		3-11	-99

Ugh.  This list doesn’t even include Cincinnati, who, at 3-2, isn’t exactly striking fear into opponents but to has a stranglehold on the other wild card at this point.

We listed road record because it seems relevant given that one of these teams is likely to be a wild card and will likely be heading into San Diego / New England / Baltimore in round 1.  Think the Chargers, Pats, and Ravens won’t be licking their chops (not to mention gamblers looking to bet on them?).

As the last few years have proven, all you have to do is get in to make some noise (*cue Giants fans nodding*), so there’s hope for fans of all 6 of these teams.  But if this were college basketball and it were March, all you’d hear is Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas yapping about how weak the bubble was in the AFC this year and how wrong it is that Minnesota can’t get into the playoffs just because it’s in the wrong conference.

Dickie V would probably think the Vikings are getting a
RAW DEAL if one of the 2-win AFC makes the playoffs

Updated Playoff Projections

Our projections are now weighted 65/35, with preseason ratings making up 65% of our rating and Pythagorean Expectation making up the remaining 35%.

AFC

Division Champs: Texans (11.2 expected wins), Ravens (11.2), Chargers (9.5),  Patriots (8.7)

Wild Cards: Bengals (9.3), Steelers (8.6)

Out: Jets (8.2), Broncos (7.1); In: Patriots, Steelers

NFC

Division Champs: Niners (13.6), Falcons (12.4), Bears (12.3), Eagles (9.8)

Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.0), Packers (9.4)

No changes from last week

WEEK 6 PICKS

Nothing new this week in terms of analyses.  We do need to do a refresh for injuries, as teams like the Jets, who have lost Darrelle Revis and Santonio Holmes for the season, should have their ratings discounted as a result.  But in the interest of getting this out by press time, we haven’t included those effects yet.  As in the past two weeks, we are giving 1.5 points’ of credit to the four teams coming off a bye (Cowboys, Raiders, Bucs, and Lions) and another 1.2 points to the two teams playing at home in primetime (Chargers and Texans).

For some reason, we like a lot of home teams this week.  That seems to be just a coincidence, home advantage is just as strong as it always is (2.6 points).

LAST WEEK: 6-8 against the spread, 8-6 outright

THIS WEEK: 1-0 against the spread, 0-1 outright

SEASON: 40-34-4 against the spread (.541), 51-27 overall (.654)

(picks in order of confidence, outright winner in parentheses)

SEAHAWKS +3.5 over Patriots (Seahawks)

JETS -3 over Colts (Jets)

CHARGERS -1 over Broncos (Chargers)

NINERS -6.5 over Giants (Niners)

REDSKINS -1.5 over Vikings (Redskins)

BUCS -4 over Chiefs (Bucs)

CARDINALS -4.5 over Bills (Cardinals)

Packers +3 over TEXANS (Texans)

RAVENS -3.5 over Cowboys (Ravens)

Bengals -2 over BROWNS (Bengals)

DOLPHINS -4 over Rams (Dolphins)

Lions +3 over EAGLES (Eagles)

Raiders +9 over FALCONS (Falcons)

Note: Shout-out to Brady Quinn, who will relinquish his backup duties and get the start on Sunday.  If he keeps the job, we might have to change our avatar . . .

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Week 6: Thursday night pick

More to come tomorrow, but we're picking Tennessee + 6 tonight.

Pittsburgh is 0-2 on the road this year.  Both losses are to sub-.500 teams, including at lowly Oakland, where they blew multiple 10-point leads.  Pittsburgh will be without Troy Polamalu (again) and without LaMarr Woodley (for the first time).

Tennessee hasn't exactly been the '94 Niners, but they got embarrassed last week, and as we saw in New York on Monday night, teams who get embarassed the week before typically at least put up a fight.

This is all without the model (which is currently being tweaked), but, with neither team having much going for it, we're taking the 6 points at home.  Take Pittsburgh to win outright, but Tennessee against the spread.

Check back tomorrow for the rest of the week 6 picks.  Enjoy the game tonight.

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Week 5 Preview and Picks

Vikings fans have come a long way from the dog days of Moss and Culpepper

First things first: we couldn't have been more wrong about last night's pick.  Here's hoping Kevin Kolb still has all of his limbs attached after getting sacked nine times last night.

Onward to the rest of the week, where we pause to look at a surprise juggernaut in Minneapolis.  The Vikings quietly sit tied with the Bears atop the NFC North standings with a 3-1 record.  Among those chiefly responsible for their ascent?  QB Christian Ponder, who ranks 10th in ESPN's Total QBR ratings, ahead of Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, among others.  Ponder was 29th in last year's rankings and is a big reason for Minnesota's turnaround.

Our preseason model didn't think much of Minnesota, projecting only 1.7 wins, a total they nearly doubled in September alone, and we had them worst in the NFC in free agency.  But those rankings only took into account performance to date, not potential, and we knew the Vikings would be going with a youth movement this year.  We called out their young / inexperienced starting guards, Brandon Fusco and Charlie Johnson, calling the guard position a "potential nightmare" this year.  The 2 have performed admirably; Minnesota has the #6-ranked offensive line in the league on the run and is in the middle of the pack in the rare instances they throw the ball.  Sometimes your young players perform, sometimes they don't.  The former appears true so far in Minnesota, with Fusco, Johnson, and Ponder leading the way.

How long might the fun continue in the great white north?  While no one (ourselves included) is picking Minnesota to outlast Green Bay or Chicago, the schedule appears friendly in the near term:

Week 5: TITANS (1-3)
Week 6: at Redskins (2-2)
Week 7: CARDINALS (4-1)
Week 8: BUCS (3-1)
Week 9: at Seahawks (2-2)
Week 10: LIONS (1-3)

Minnesota could have trouble with any of the 5, but none stand out as a clear loss.  Is it so crazy to think the Vikes will go 4-2 over this stretch and be sitting at 7-3 with 6 games to play?

The bye follows week 10 and, with it, the Vikings may well fall back to earth -- their 6-game stretch run includes 2 games apiece against Chicago and Green Bay as well as road games in St. Louis and Houston.  So enjoy it while it lasts, Vikings fans.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
For those scoring at home, we're weighting our preseason projections at 73%, and season-to-date Pythagorean performance at 27% (note: we're debating bringing down the preseason weighting at a faster clip going forward).  As always, expected wins are in parentheses.

AFC Division Champs: Ravens (10.4), Texans (10.4), Chargers (9.9), Jets (9.0)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.7), Broncos (8.8)
New to the field: Broncos; Dropped out: Bills (7.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.1), Falcons (11.9), Bears (11.3), Eagles (9.8)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.0), Packers (10.3)
No changes since last week

DO TEAMS PLAY BETTER AFTER THE BYE?
A few of the lines looked a bit off this week -- particularly the 1-2 Steelers, who are 3 point favorites at home against 3-1 Philadelphia.  A lot of the pundits assessing this game cite that the Steelers are coming off a bye and will likely be with the services of Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Rashard Mendenhall, none of whom have suited up this year.

Isn't great that we've got a bye this week?  ISN'T IT!?

In this instance, it's clear the bye week helps the Steelers.  Conventional wisdom holds that in general, regardless of a team's injury situation, it does better after a bye.  We sought to set that theory, along with the corollary -- if it does, has Vegas caught on?

We looked at every game played since 2008 where one team was coming off a bye and the other was not.  There were 111 such games.  58 times the team coming off the bye played at home, 53 on the road.  Teams win games by an average of 2.5 points, so we would have expected teams coming off the bye to win by a very small amount -- it turns out to be 0.1 points.  In reality, teams coming off a bye won by an average of 1.6 points, implying a 1.5 point benefit from coming off a bye.

So, has Vegas caught on yet?  Somewhat.  In the same set of games, the team coming off the bye was favored by an average of 0.6 points.  So Vegas gave them an extra half point, when in reality they should be giving them an extra 1.5 points.

The result?  Teams coming off a bye are 59-47-5 against the spread since 2008, good for 55.7%.  It's not a slam-dunk by any stretch, but there does appear to be some value, all things equal, in picking teams after a bye.  Good news for the Colts and Steelers this week, both of whom got a 1.5-point bump when we crunched the numbers for our picks this week.

WEEK 5 PICKS
Our model still doesn't think all that much of the Texans, Vikings, and Patriots, and that's reflected in our picks below.  The Jets, despite all their injuries, may represent Houston's toughest test to date.  A resounding win at MetLife Stadium will go a long way toward convincing us that the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

LAST WEEK: 7-8 against the spread, 11-4 outright
SEASON: 33-26-4 against the spread (.559), 43-20 overall (.717)
THIS WEEK: 0-1 against the spread, 0-1 outright

(in order of confidence, outright winner in parentheses):

JETS +9 over Texans (Jets)
Titans +5.5 over VIKINGS (Titans)
Broncos +6.5 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)
SAINTS -3.5 over Chargers (Saints)
CHIEFS +6 over Ravens (Ravens)
Browns + 8.5 over GIANTS (Giants)
BENGALS -3 over Dolphins (Bengals)
COLTS +7 over Packers (Packers)
PANTHERS -3 over Seahawks (Panthers)
STEELERS -3 over Eagles (Steelers)
REDSKINS +3 over Falcons (Falcons)
NINERS -9.5 over Bills (Niners)
Bears -4.5 over JAGUARS (Bears)

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Week 5: Thursday Night Pick

We'll be back tomorrow with the week 4 review / week 5 preview and picks.  For now, we like the Cardinals -2.5 tonight, both against the spread and to win straight-up, with a pretty high degree of confidence.  (We haven't run the numbers yet, but I would suspect this game will be in the top 4 or 5 in terms of our confidence level among the 14 games this weekend.)

While we think St. Louis is sneaky-good (or at least sneaky-not-that-bad), their offense is the worst in the league according to Football Outsiders.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense is ranked sixth.  Translation: St. Louis might struggle to get into double digits.

More tomorrow.  Stay tuned.

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Week 4 Preview and Picks

Ed Hochuli appears to be in game shape . . .

Whew.  It took a football disaster, but the referee debacle is finally behind us, and not a moment too soon.  The regular refs will take the field tonight for the Browns-Ravens game and will likely be cheered wildly . . . until the first bad pass interference call.

Onward to week 4.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

AFC Division Winners (in order of seed and with expected wins): Ravens (10.5), Jets (10.3), Texans (9.6), Chargers (9.2)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.0), Bills (8.6)
New since last week: Bills; Dropped out: Steelers (8.5)

NFC Division Winners: Niners (12.5), Falcons (11.7), Bears (11.1), Eagles (9.3)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.8), Packers (10.2)
New since last week: Bears; Dropped out: Saints (9.6)

(Note for those keeping tabs: the expected wins formula is now 77% preseason expectation, 23% season rating.)

In the AFC, our projections align nicely with the current records, as every 2-1 and 3-0 team makes it into our projected field.  (And yes, the fact that only 6 of 16 teams have a winning record is a testament to the weakness of the AFC this year.)

Not so in the much stronger NFC, where we've got the 1-2 Packers in the field largely on the strength of their expected rankings -- we pegged them at 12.3 wins at the start of the year, and even though their Pythagorean expectation is middling (57 points for, 54 points against), right now their preseason rating is enough to get them in.  Not so for the Saints, who we had at 14 wins at the start of the year but who have looked ugly all year (83 points for, 102 points against).

Cowboys (8.1 expected wins), Seahawks (7.9), Giants (7.7), and Vikings (4.9) fans all probably have a beef with our projections, as their clubs all have 2-1 records and are left out of the field.

The Niners' surprising loss to Minnesota last week didn't drop them off their perch as the best expected record in the NFL, but the Cardinals (currently a game up on San Francisco in the standings) are right on their heels.  The two square off Monday night during week 8 in Tempe.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE -- MORE SIGNIFICANT IN PRIME TIME?

Conventional wisdom holds that home field advantage is enhanced during night games.  The national spotlight is on the game, crowds have a few extra hours to tailgate, and the crowd finds itself hyped up more than usual.  The Ravens even petitioned the league in 2009 to not have to play primetime road games against division rival Pittsburgh.

Is there anything to the notion that teams really are better at home in primetime than at home during normal hours?  To find out, we looked at the 1,024 regular season games played between 2008 and 2011, with a special emphasis on the 174 games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday nights (or, in the case of the Metrodome imploding, Tuesday night).  The results are below:

Comparison of Primetime Games to All Regular Season Games, 2008-2011

	Primetime	All Games
Average home margin of victory	3.7	2.5
Average spread by which home team is favored	2.3	2.4
% of time home team covers spread	52.6%	47.6%

The results are statistically relevant, and they seem to imply that:

- Home teams do a little over a point better at home in primetime than at home in general
- Vegas hasn't quite caught on, as spreads are about equal for the home team in primetime and in general
- Unsurprisingly, home teams have covered in primetime more frequently (52.6%) than in general (47.6%)

Recall that for a bet to be profitable, it has to be right not 50% of the time but 52.4% due to the vig, and the 52.6% figure is (barely) above that.  At the very least, it seems that teams are a little more than a point better at home in primetime than in general.  Which bodes well for Baltimore (tonight), Philadelphia (Sunday), and Dallas (Monday).  Our picks will take this into account for this week and the future.

WEEK 4 PICKS

Worth calling out this week:

- Look for the Titans to make it a game against Houston, who still hasn't played anyone.
- It'll be panic time in Boston Monday morning as the Patriots drop to 1-3
- The Cowboys shouldn't be favored against the Bears, regardless of the venue.  Unless Terrible Jay Cutler shows up.

Last week: 8-7-1 against the spread, 8-8 overall
Season: 26-18-4 against the spread (.591), 32-16 overall (.667)

Picks in order of confidence, with outright winner in parentheses:

Titans + 12 over TEXANS (Texans)
Saints +7.5 over PACKERS (Packers)
BILLS +4 over Patriots (Bills)
Bears + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Bears)
LIONS - 4.5 over Vikings (Lions)
EAGLES -1.5 over Giants (Eagles)
Chargers +1 over CHIEFS (Chargers)
Panthers +7 over FALCONS (Falcons)
JETS +4 over Niners (Niners)
Browns + 12 over RAVENS (Ravens)
Seahawks -2.5 over RAMS (Seahawks)
BRONCOS -6.5 over Raiders (Broncos)
BUCS -3 over Redskins (Bucs)
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bengals (Bengals)
DOLPHINS +6 over Cardinals (Cardinals)
Bye: Steelers, Colts

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What the NFL Should Have Said in its Statement on the Packers-Seahawks Game

The end to Monday night's game: an affront to the integrity of the NFL

The NFL issued a formal statement today regarding the ending of last night's Packers-Seahawks game.  Here's the statement they should have issued:

To all NFL players, coaches, and fans:

We messed up.  As anyone watching the ending of Monday night's Packers-Seahawks game can attest, Packers' defensive back M.D. Jennings intercepted the pass on the final play.  As ESPN's replay cameras showed rather clearly, Jennings gained control of the ball first.  Seahawks wide receiver Golden Tate did not, nor was control gained simultaneously by both players.  As such, Seattle should not have scored a touchdown and the game should have ended with the Packers winning, 12-7.

The incorrect ruling on the field was that of a simultaneous catch, in which the offense is awarded possession and, in this case, a touchdown.  The replay official did not find conclusive evidence to overturn that ruling.  As such, the ruling on the field could not be overturned, the play stood as called, and Seattle was awarded a touchdown and the resultant victory.

If the NFL stands for anything, it is the integrity of its game.  Without that integrity, the league as we know it ceases to exist.  It's one of the biggest reasons pro football has achieved its current level of popularity.  There is no question that our regular corps of officials, while still also prone to human error (see this blown call from one of our best, Ed Hochuli), are far superior to the current crews officiating our games today.  We know that integrity will be enhanced once the regular officials are back to work.  Please know that we are doing everything in our power to do so.  At the same time, please respect the fact that this is a labor dispute and that both our position and the officials union's position has merit.  We promise that we're working to find common ground.  In the meantime, we are happy to announce that we have hired Miles Austin, a retired official with 27 years' experience, and Mike Pereira, for NFL Head of Officiating, from their jobs at ESPN and FOX, respectively, to serve as special replay booth advisers.  Either Miles or Mike will receive a live replay feed from every game from league offices in New York, and their input will be considered by the officials during every replay review.  We hope this will aid the officials on the field.  We ask you all to support them as much as you can, as they are doing their very best to act as a short-term remedy for our league.  Without the replacement officials, there would be no NFL season.

As for last night's finish, we are making an unprecedented decision: the league office is overturning the call on the field.  Citing conclusive -- if not quite indisputable -- evidence, the league office is holding the position that the ball was intercepted, and, as such, is awarding the Packers a 12-7 victory and the Seahawks a 12-7 loss.

We have no doubt that the millions of NFL fans watching replays on TV agree with us that our officiating crew made the wrong call on the field.  And we feel it is in the best interest of the integrity of the game to, above all else, get the call right.

We realize that this precedent, if abused, could be quite dangerous.  As such, the league decrees that rulings on the field may be changed or overturned outside the course of the normal review process only under the following 3 conditions:

1. That the play in question is either the last play of the game or the last play before a kneel situation to run out the clock.*
2. That the outcome of regulation (a win for either team or overtime) or, in the case of overtime, the outcome of overtime (a win for either team or a tie) be swung by the decision.
3. That a preponderance of the video evidence support the overturning of the call.  Note that the burden of proof is NOT conclusive evidence, as we believe that video replay technology is sufficiently advanced that, with sufficient angles and time to review, it is a far better means of deciding a close play than the real-time reaction of an official who may or may not have the perfect angle.

[note: The 2 sentences below were added the day after the original post and were inspired by Feedback from reader Belbogen.]

Also, the "outside-the-process" review must happen before the officials leave the field at the game.  Meaning this is the only time we'll ever reverse a ruling the day after a game goes "final."


It is our sincere hope that this is the last time the league office will have to make such a decision.  We are sure it will be met with backlash -- as difficult as it must have been for Green Bay to lose last night in the fashion it did, it must be ten times worse for the Seahawks to lose the day after.

However, we once again must base our decision in this matter on the integrity of the game.  The Packers intercepted the ball.  Everyone saw it.  The right call is an interception.  And in this case, that means reversing the outcome of the game.

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*- Kneel situation defined as any situation in which:
(1) The team with the ball is leading
(2) The time on the clock is less than 40 seconds times (the number of downs until fourth down minus the number of timeouts the trailing team has)