 |
| Our model says losing Revis will cost the Jets a little over a game this year |
[10/19 update, 9:30 a.m.: A brief word on last night's game, which was played following the original publishing of this post. As we tweeted and put on Facebook last night, we took the Niners to cover the 7.5 point spread. You know what happened. We'd just like to go on record as saying that we agree with Harbaugh's decision. Declining the penalty leads to a single kneel-down to end the game. Accepting it -- and taking the safety -- leaves the possibility, however remote, that Seattle could go onside kick --> score --> onside kick --> score. The chances are low with 45 seconds and no timeouts, and yes, something crazy could happen on the snap for the kneel-down, but if the BackupQB were coaching the Niners, he'd have done the same thing.
Our original post starts after the jump . . .]
After several weeks of our model telling us the Jets were a 10-win team (not to mention our AFC Super Bowl pick), it’s clearly time to re-calibrate based on injuries to date. Doing the injury topic justice is hard – to do it rigorously, you’d need to account for, among other things, each game a player misses, the ability of his replacement, and the loss in productivity when a player plays but isn’t 100%. That’s hard. As an 80/20 solution, we’ve just looked at the players who have gone on injured reserve – without the possibility of returning -- since the start of the season, then adjusted our offseason rankings to reflect those losses. Below, we list the teams who have lost players and try to quantify the effect:
Our original post starts after the jump . . .]
After several weeks of our model telling us the Jets were a 10-win team (not to mention our AFC Super Bowl pick), it’s clearly time to re-calibrate based on injuries to date. Doing the injury topic justice is hard – to do it rigorously, you’d need to account for, among other things, each game a player misses, the ability of his replacement, and the loss in productivity when a player plays but isn’t 100%. That’s hard. As an 80/20 solution, we’ve just looked at the players who have gone on injured reserve – without the possibility of returning -- since the start of the season, then adjusted our offseason rankings to reflect those losses. Below, we list the teams who have lost players and try to quantify the effect:
Team
|
Value Lost
|
Expected Wins Before Adjustment
|
Expected Wins After Adjustment
| |
1
|
Jets
|
144
|
8.7
|
7.6
|
2
|
Panthers
|
83
|
6.6
|
6.1
|
3
|
Redskins
|
80
|
7.7
|
7.1
|
4
|
Texans
|
72
|
10.4
|
9.9
|
5
|
Bengals
|
67
|
8.7
|
8.0
|
6
|
Rams
|
60
|
6.2
|
5.7
|
7
|
Packers
|
47
|
9.9
|
9.8
|
8
|
Broncos
|
46
|
8.1
|
7.8
|
T9
|
Raiders
|
42
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
T9
|
Falcons
|
42
|
12.7
|
12.6
|
Unsurprisingly, the Jets sit atop this list, due in large part to losing All-Galaxy CB Darrelle Revis (98 value points on his own). The Panthers are, perhaps, a more surprising entry. Their less-publicized – but nearly as important – loss of Ryan Kalil (54) helped push Carolina to #2 on the list. Before his injury, Kalil had started 65 straight games at center for the Panthers. Now, Carolina is playing musical chairs on their o-line, moving RG Geoff Hangartner to center and opening up the RG race between two guys who have started a combined 2 games since 2010.
 |
| The Panthers are even worse following the loss of underrated C Matt Kalil |
Houston is also notably high on the list, with Brian “Physiology 101” Cushing (64) the biggest loss. We may have gotten a glimpse of how the Texans’ D looks without him on Sunday night against Green Bay, and it wasn’t pretty.
Notably absent from the list? Baltimore. With all the buzz around the loss of Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb last week, along with news this week of Ed Reed’s torn labrum, you’d have to think the Ravens are near the top of our injury list, right? Well, we’re only taking players on IR into account here, which means that only Webb (only 37 on account of only one truly solid season) is the only player of those 3 who counts. Lewis (39) would add to the effect (although not as much as you might think), but John Harbaugh has designated him as eligible to return. So if he ends up staying off the list, Baltimore would shoot up to #4.
Obviously Reed (71) would be almost as big a loss as Revis. Reed said today he “can still tackle,” so Ravens fans should breathe for the time being. And, if Terrell Suggs has his way, they should go from breathing to fist-pumping (our take on Suggs when he was first injured is here. Cliff notes: we thought it was a big deal.).
Obviously Reed (71) would be almost as big a loss as Revis. Reed said today he “can still tackle,” so Ravens fans should breathe for the time being. And, if Terrell Suggs has his way, they should go from breathing to fist-pumping (our take on Suggs when he was first injured is here. Cliff notes: we thought it was a big deal.).
Obviously, one team’s loss is another team’s gain, so teams who have lost no one to the dreaded injured list saw their expected win totals go up.
Updated Playoff Projections (note: these do not include last night's results)
For those scoring at home, we’re projecting the rest of the season based on a blended average of:
- 59%: Our preseason ratings (now adjusted for the injury effect above), and
- 41%: A team’s Pythagorean performance this year (in English: their point differential)
Last week, we talked about the weak bubble in the AFC (note that 4 .500 teams would make the playoffs if they started today). A few of those bubble teams stepped up and made statements -- most notably the Jets (convincing win over Indy), the Miami (win over sneaky-good St. Louis), and Denver (preposterously-dominant second half against San Diego). For now, we've still got Pittsburgh and Cincinnati -- incidentally, those two teams square off in prime time Sunday night.
In the NFC, the bubble is as strong as it is weak in the AFC, with 4-2 San Francisco, everyone’s darling until last week, currently out of the playoffs, and with the 3-3 Packers sitting right next to them on the outside looking in. We’ve been more bearish on Minnesota and Seattle, the two teams sitting at 4-2 who would be in if the playoffs started today but who aren’t getting much love from our model. Both can make a strong statement this week – Seattle has San Francisco on the road and Minnesota plays 4-2 Arizona who, though they’ve looked very mortal in recent weeks, poses a significant test for a team that was largely embarrassed last week against Washington.
WEEK 7 PICKS
Shout-out to the anonymous commenter from last week – we’ll humbly note that our pick of the week, the Seahawks, came through (both straight-up and against the spread). Also of note: our record against the spread last week was better than our record straight-up. That's what happens when only go 6-8 outright (and 3-11 against the spread). We see the trend continuing -- we're only picking 4 favorites out of 13, and our top 4 picks are all underdogs. Enjoy the games . . .
LAST WEEK: 8-6 against the spread, 7-7 outright
SEASON: 48-40-4 against the spread (.545), 58-34 overall (.630)
(picks in order of confidence against the spread, winner in parentheses)
Cardinals +6 over VIKINGS (Cardinals)
Ravens +6.5 over TEXANS (Ravens)
Jets +10.5 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)
PANTHERS +2 over Cowboys (Panthers)
BEARS -6 over Lions (Bears)
BENGALS +1.5 over Steelers (Bengals)
Jaguars +4 over RAIDERS (Raiders)
NINERS -7.5 over Seahawks (Niners)
Browns +2 over COLTS (Colts)
Packers -5 over RAMS (Packers)
Titans +3 over BILLS (Bills)
Saints -2 over BUCS (Saints)
Redskins +5.5 over GIANTS (Giants)
Think we’re crazy? Think we’re brilliant? Tell us in the comments!
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