Week 8 Preview and Picks

Romeo, would you like to buy a pronoun?

Chiefs Head Coach Romeo Crennel announced Monday that he was replacing starting quarterback Matt Cassel – he of the 6-year, $63 million contract – with former first-rounder and, until this week, the face of this blog, one Brayden Tyler Quinn.  (As you can see, we’ve changed our avatar to reflect that Quinn is, in fact, no longer a backup QB).  Crennel opened a competition the week before last – a move lambasted by many but supported by, among others, our friends at Caught Looking -- and announced this week that Quinn would be the starter for the forseeable future.

Crennel’s rationale:

“I felt like the most impactful move I could make to get everybody’s attention was to change the quarterback.  I think that will get everybody’s attention, and hopefully that impacts the team because the quarterback position is the one that has the spotlight on him . . .

We need to coach better and we need to play better, and if we do things, we can be better, but my biggest deal was my gut was telling me we need to impact that team by changing that dynamic.”

Right on, Romeo.  Not sure we had a coherent English sentence in there, but the read I’m getting is that you want to shake things up for your 1-5 football team.  Fair enough.

Does this ever work?  After the jump, we had a look at the value of quarterback continuity over the past 2 seasons.

 Unsurprisingly, if a team’s quarterback played most of the season, it was probably a pretty good team.  In many ways, this is a chicken-and-egg situation, if a team has a good quarterback who stays healthy, it sees no need to switch quarterbacks and, thus, sees success.  Regardless, there’s a marked difference between teams whose starter plays 14 games or more and those who don’t:

Games Played by Starting QB	14 or more	13 or fewer
Teams	36	28
Total Record	334-228 (.594)	172-276 (.384)
Average wins / season	9.4	6.1
Playoff berths	21 (58%)	3 (11%)
Super Bowl Wins	2	0

So on average, a team with QB continuity will win 3.3 more games than a team without it, and its chances of making the playoffs are 6x higher.  It’s a quarterback league, so no surprise there.

For the record, the 3 playoff teams who didn’t see their starters play 14 or more were the 2010 Steelers  (Ben Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension), the 2011 Texans (Matt Schaub à Matt Leinart à TJ Yates), and the 2011 Broncos (Kyle Orton à TEBOWWWW).

So what about once a team makes a switch – or is forced to by injury -- do things get any better?  Typically not, although they typically don’t get much worse either:

Games Played by Starting QB	With Opening Day Starter	With Other QBs
Total Record	94-144 (.400)	76-132 (.365)
Average Wins Over a 16-game season	6.4	5.8
# of times with a better win percentage	16 of 28	11 of 28

Note: The ’10 Steelers were 9-3 with Ben Roethlisberger and 3-1 with Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon for an identical .750 win percentage and a push; hence the bottom row not adding to 28.

So basically, when a team switches starters – due to injury or bad play, it's a pretty crappy team to begin with.  Those teams are a shade better than your typical 6-win team before the QB switch, and a shade worse after.  The best-case scenario if you’re Kansas City?  The ’11 Broncos, who started 1-4 under Kyle Orton and finished 7-5 under Tim Tebow to go 8-8 and win the division.   (And don’t forget, they were 8-5 before dropping their last 3, so Tebow actually started 7-1).  The worst case?  The ’10 Panthers, who saw Matt Moore start 1-4 and replaced him with the dynamic duo of Quinn's fellow Notre Dame alum Jimmy Clausen and Brian St. Pierre (combined record: 1-10).

2012 Brady Quinn = 2010 Jimmy Clausen?

Can the Chiefs compete in a weak AFC West?  Maybe.  We’ve got 9 wins winning that division, the Chiefs have 5 of their 6 division games remaining (including a winnable one this week at home vs. Oakland), and Quinn certainly has star pedigree based on his time at Notre Dame and his high draft pick.  But, if history is any indicator, the teams that make QB changes are usually bad already, and switching QBs rarely makes things much better.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

We figured the lower of the Steelers-Bengals game would be bounced from our playoff projections and, alas, that the case, with Denver sliding into Cincinnati’s spot.  Oh, and the AFC is still putrid compared to the NFC.  (For those following at home, we’re 50/50 between injury-adjusted preseason ratings and Pythagorean performance.)

AFC Playoff Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Texans (10.9 wins)	Ravens (11.2)	Jets (10.9)	Texans (6-1)
2	Ravens (10.1)	Texans (9.9)	Steelers (10.5)	Ravens (5-2)
3	Patriots (8.9)	Chargers (8.8)	Chargers (9.3)	Patriots (4-3)
4	Chargers (8.8)	Patriots (8.4)	Titans (8.3)	Broncos (3-3)
5	Steelers (8.9)	Bengals (9.3)	Ravens (10.2)	Chargers (3-3)
6	Broncos (8.0)	Steelers (8.6)	Bengals (10.0)	Dolphins (3-3)

NFC Playoff Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Bears (12.9)	Niners (12.6)	Niners (14.3)	Falcons (6-0)
2	Falcons (12.6)	Bears (12.6)	Saints (14.0)	Bears (5-1)
3	Niners (12.6)	Falcons (12.6)	Packers (12.3)	Giants (5-2)
4	Giants (10.0)	Giants (9.3)	Eagles (9.3)	Niners (5-2)
5	Packers (10.0)	Cardinals (10.3)	Bears (11.6)	Vikings (5-2)
6	Cardinals (9.4)	Packers (9.8)	Cardinals (10.6)	Packers (4-3)

Our model still likes Arizona (we’ve been bullish on them all year), despite their recent fall from grace (4-0 start, 0-3 in last 3) and porous offensive line.  Last week’s loss to Minnesota was a major missed opportunity for them, and the Cardinals have a murderer’s row of a remaining schedule, with exactly 2 of 9 games against teams under .500.  Their next 3 are treacherous – home for the Niners, at Green Bay, at Atlanta.  Going 1-2 in that stretch and coming out .500 may not be enough in a conference that might see a 10-win team miss the playoffs.

Also, we don’t see the hype about Denver.  A convincing win on Sunday night against New Orleans (we like them to win, but barely, and for the Saints to cover) might change our tune.

Last, guess who's the first team out of our projected NFC playoffs?  The New Orleans Saints, at a projected 9 wins.  They'd have to go 7-3 the rest of the way to get there.

WEEK 8 PICKS

LAST WEEK: 6-6-1 against the spread, 7-6 outright

SEASON: 54-46-5 against the spread (.540), 65-40 outright (.619)

(picks in order of confidence against the spread, outright winner in parentheses)

Bucs + 6.5 over VIKINGS (Vikings)

Cardinals +6.5 over NINERS (Niners)

Saints +6 over BRONCOS (Broncos)
Jaguars +15.5 over PACKERS (Packers)

COWBOYS +2 over Giants (Cowboys)

TITANS -3.5 over Colts (Titans)

BEARS -7.5 over Panthers (Bears)

CHIEFS -2 over Raiders (Chiefs)

Falcons +2.5 over EAGLES (Eagles)

STEELERS -4.5 over Redskins (Steelers)

Chargers -2.5 over BROWNS (Chargers)

Rams +7 over Patriots (Patriots) *Game at Wembley Stadium in London
Dolphins +2.5 over Jets (Jets)

Seahawks +2.5 over Lions (Lions)

Think we’re crazy?  Think we’re brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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