 |
| Andrew Luck's 1st Half of 2012 is nothing short of remarkable |
Following
last week’s emotional
23-20 victory over the Dolphins, we’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about the
Colts. Consider that the Colts:
·
Went 2-14 last year
·
Parted ways with Peyton Manning, maybe the
greatest quarterback of this generation
·
We
had them at 2.8 expected wins for the year, good for third-worst in the league. And we weren’t alone.
·
They went 2-3 in their first five games and had
a point differential of -45.
·
They’re starting a rookie quarterback.
·
They announced their coach was diagnosed with
leukemia and was leaving the team indefinitely.
·
His interim replacement, Bruce Arians, prompted
a Facebook
group asking for his firing while offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh
(Steelers fans got Todd Haley – hmmm . . .)
So it’s really nothing short of remarkable that the Colts
sit at 5-3 and would make the playoffs if they started today. What’s particularly surprising is that the
Colts are doing all this with the #1 overall pick starting at QB from opening day. We’ve seen recent examples of rookie QBs
carrying their teams to success (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez both guided their
teams to conference title games in ’08 and ’09), but those guys were either later draft picks (Flacco) or were picked by teams who were at least decent the year before (both). Because a team has to
have the worst record in the previous year to get the number 1 pick (translation: they stunk then, they’ll
probably stink again), it’s far more rare for a team at the top of the draft to
even smell the playoffs. In fact, it’s
only happened once since the merger.
Performance of QBs
Drafted Number 1 Overall Since 1970
Player
|
Year
Drafted
|
Team
|
Record
Through First 8 Starts
|
Team
Record in First Year
|
Playoffs?
|
|
1
|
Andrew Luck
|
2012
|
IND
|
5-3
|
?
|
?
|
2
|
Michael Vick
|
2001
|
ATL
|
4-4
|
7-9
|
No
|
3
|
John Elway
|
1983
|
DEN
|
3-5
|
9-7
|
Yes
|
4
|
Carson Palmer
|
2003
|
CIN
|
3-5
|
8-8
|
No
|
5
|
Jeff George
|
1990
|
IND
|
3-5
|
7-9
|
No
|
6
|
Jim Plunkett
|
1971
|
NE
|
3-5
|
6-8
|
No
|
7
|
Terry Bradshaw
|
1970
|
PIT
|
3-5
|
5-9
|
No
|
8
|
S. Bartkowski
|
1975
|
ATL
|
3-5
|
4-10
|
No
|
9
|
Eli Manning
|
2004
|
NYG
|
2-6
|
6-10
|
No
|
10
|
David Carr
|
2002
|
HOU
|
2-6
|
4-12
|
No
|
11
|
Alex Smith
|
2005
|
SF
|
2-6
|
4-12
|
No
|
12
|
Jamarcus Russell
|
2007
|
OAK
|
2-6
|
4-12
|
No
|
13
|
Drew Bledsoe
|
1993
|
NE
|
1-7
|
5-11
|
No
|
14
|
V. Testaverde
|
1987
|
TB
|
1-7
|
4-11
|
No
|
15
|
Peyton Manning
|
1998
|
IND
|
1-7
|
3-13
|
No
|
16
|
Tim Couch
|
1999
|
CLE
|
1-7
|
2-14
|
No
|
17
|
Troy Aikman
|
1989
|
DAL
|
0-8
|
1-15
|
No
|
We
tried to project Luck against this group back in April when he was drafted. Through 8 games his performance – at least as
reflected by the team’s record – is outpacing everyone in a fairly
distinguished group. Only Elway’s ’83 Broncos
made the playoffs, and they were bounced by Seattle in the first round (back
when Seattle was in the AFC) and really had a platoon play at QB with Elway and
Steve DeBerg. And only Michael Vick won
even half of his first 8 games – and many of those were in his second season.
In short, especially in a weak AFC, Andrew Luck and the
Colts could well make history this year.
UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
Despite all the accolades we just bestowed upon Andrew Luck,
we’re not quite ready to put Indy into the playoffs. San Diego has snatched the 6 seed in the AFC
from Miami on the strength of their convincing (at least via score) win over
Kansas City. Our 2 projected 6 seeds –
San Diego and Tampa – square off on Sunday, and it’s likely that the loser will
drop from the projected playoff field.
(Projections are 60% weighted Pythagorean expectation and
40% preseason ranking.)
AFC Projections
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Texans (11.6 wins)
|
Texans (11.1)
|
Jets (10.9)
|
Texans (7-1)
|
2
|
Ravens (10.3)
|
Ravens (9.9)
|
Steelers (10.5)
|
Ravens (6-2)
|
3
|
Patriots (9.9)
|
Patriots (9.8)
|
Chargers (9.3)
|
Patriots (5-3)
|
4
|
Broncos (9.4)
|
Broncos (8.9)
|
Titans (8.3)
|
Broncos (5-3)
|
5
|
Steelers (9.9)
|
Steelers (9.6)
|
Ravens (10.2)
|
Colts (5-3)
|
6
|
Chargers (8.6)
|
Dolphins (8.6)
|
Bengals (10.0)
|
Steelers (5-3)
|
NFC Projections
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Falcons (13.34)
|
Bears (13.0)
|
Niners (14.3)
|
Falcons (8-0)
|
2
|
Bears (13.33)
|
Niners (13.0)
|
Saints (14.0)
|
Bears (7-1)
|
3
|
Niners (12.9)
|
Falcons (13.0)
|
Packers (12.3)
|
Niners (6-2)
|
4
|
Giants (9.9)
|
Giants (10.5)
|
Eagles (9.3)
|
Giants (6-3)
|
5
|
Packers (10.9)
|
Packers (10.4)
|
Bears (11.6)
|
Packers (6-3)
|
6
|
Bucs (8.7)
|
Bucs (8.1)
|
Cardinals (10.6)
|
Seahawks (5-4)
|
Last
week, we saw a gaggle of six teams within a half a game of the 6 spot. This week, that total has been cut to three,
with the Seahawks (8.7), Lions (8.5), and Saints (8.3) all remaining in the
hunt.
Also, San Francisco becomes the odd-team out in the race for
an NFC bye. Atlanta – stuck at #3 in our
projections despite their undefeated season --
leapfrogged the Niners and Falcons, which is less a function of their
win over Dallas (which was unconvincing) as it is of their relatively weak
preseason projection (10.4 wins, vs. 11.6 for Chicago and 14.3 for San
Fran). That figure becomes less and less
important over the course of the year in our projections, which is good for the
Falcons and bad for San Francisco. This
week, we reached the tipping point.
 |
| "The BQB didn't even give us a bye before this week?" "I dunno, he said something about only scoring 2 points in the playoffs or something . . ." |
YOU SHOULD READ THIS
Justin Halpern may have flopped with his TV show, but his “hacked”
segments on Grantland are fantastic. If
you missed it, here’s a look at Tim
Tebow’s inbox. Belichick is probably
my favorite.
WEEK 10 PICKS
Missed our
top 3 picks last week, went 9-2 otherwise.
Weird.
LAST WEEK: 9-5 against the spread, 10-4
outright
SEASON: 68-60-5 against the spread (.531),
82-51 outright (.617)
(picks in order of confidence against the
spread, outright winner in parentheses)
BEARS -1
over Texans (Bears)
JAGUARS +3
over Colts (Jaguars)
SAINTS +2.5
over Falcons (Falcons)
PANTHERS
+3.5 over Broncos (Panthers)
NINERS -11
over Rams (Niners)
BENGALS +4
over Giants (Bengals)
EAGLES +1
over Cowboys (Eagles)
Jets +6.5
over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks)
Bills +11
over PATRIOTS (Patriots)
Raiders +7.5
over RAVENS (Ravens)
Titans +6
over DOLPHINS (Dolphins)
Chiefs +11.5
over STEELERS (Steelers)
Chargers +3
over BUCS (Bucs)
Lions -2
over VIKINGS (Lions)
Think we’re crazy? Think we’re brilliant? Speak up in the comments!
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