Week 11 Preview and Picks

Cheer up, Raiders fan.  A win over the lowly Raiders mean more to a team than a win over a contender.

With the calendar turning to mid-November and most of the playoff field largely-decided, we turn for a moment this week to the NFL’s grand prize, the Lombardi trophy.  A decade ago, one could correctly point to a playoff bye as a key step to a Super Bowl title.  A team who only needed to win two games to make the Super Bowl (at least one of which would be at home) would only be helped, the thinking went, by the extra week of rest.  But the importance of getting a bye has proven less and less important since 2005, as 5 of the last 7 Super Bowl champs (and 4 of the last 5) were playing during Wild Card Weekend.

The most important factor, experts say?  How a team plays down the stretch.  Since we’re not “down the stretch,” yet, we obviously can’t assess that for 2012, so we’ll table it for six weeks.  Instead, we’ll look at another piece of conventional wisdom: that Super Bowl-contending teams typically blow out crappy teams, something that has absolutely held true in the past 10 years.  Some facts after the jump:

·         Eventual Super Bowl champs have played 34 games against teams who ended the season 5-11 or worse

·         They are 30-4 in those games (.882 winning percentage)

·         Of the 4 losses:

o   The ’11 Giants had two, and, at 9-7 and a negative point differential for the year, they were a statistical anomaly by any definition

o   The ’09 Saints had one in week 16, the week after they lost to break up their perfect season and had basically nothing to play for

o   The ’03 Pats had one.  It was legitimate, a week 4 20-17 loss to the Redskins

·         The average margin of victory for the champs on those games?  12.8 points (including the losses)

So what does this mean for 2012?  Below, we list our 12 projected playoff teams (the Colts are now in, so this mirrors the “if the playoffs started today” field except that we have Tampa in rather than Seattle) and their performance against “crappy” teams this year.  (“Crappy” is defined as 3-6 or worse.)

Team	Record vs. Teams 3-6 or Worse	Average Margin vs. Teams 3-6 or Worse
Niners (6-2-1)	2-0	36.5
Broncos (6-3)	2-0	26.5
Giants (6-4)	2-0	21.5
Bears (7-2)	2-0	19.5
Bucs (5-4)	3-0	14.7
Average SB Champ, 2002-2011	30-4	12.8
Texans (8-1)	3-0	12.7
Ravens (7-2)	5-0	12.4
Patriots (6-3)	3-0	11.0
Packers (6-3)	1-0	9.0
Falcons (8-1)	4-0	8.5
Steelers (6-3)	2-1	5.7
Colts (6-3)	2-2	-2.5

The NFC bias continues here, with 4 of our top 5 point margins above the SB Champ threshold (including our preseason favorites, the Niners).  The data portends poorly for Indianapolis (only .500 against teams 3-6 or worse) and Pittsburgh (2-1, not to mention their franchise QB’s broken rib is dangerously close to his aorta).  The NFL’s last unbeaten, Atlanta, doesn’t fare well by this metric wither.

And with the most opportunity to solidify its position?  Denver, with 4 games remaining against the bottom of the league (2 vs. Kansas City, 1 vs. Oakland, 1 vs. Cleveland) as part of its cakewalk schedule.  If form holds, Denver and San Francisco have a decent chance to re-enact Super Bowl XXIV, 23 years after the original.

Kaepernick-to-Crabtree = Montana-to-Rice?

 UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

As we noted above, just one change, and that’s in the AFC, where San Diego moves out and Indianapolis (1-2-3-CHUCK!) moves in.

AFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Texans (12.1 wins)	Texans (11.6 wins)	Jets (10.9)	Texans (8-1)
2	Ravens (11.2)	Ravens (10.3)	Steelers (10.5)	Ravens (7-2)
3	Patriots (10.3)	Patriots (9.9)	Chargers (9.3)	Patriots (6-3)
4	Broncos (10.2)	Broncos (9.4)	Titans (8.3)	Broncos (6-3)
5	Steelers (10.4)	Steelers (9.9)	Ravens (10.2)	Colts (6-3)
6	Colts (9.0)	Chargers (8.6)	Bengals (10.0)	Steelers (6-3)

No adjustment for the Ben Roethlisberger injury here, although qualitatively, it’s reasonable to assume the Steelers could go 4-3 down the stretch with Byron Leftwich at the helm (especially with Cleveland on the schedule twice, Cincinnati at home, and San Diego at home).  The Chargers would be the next team into the field (7.9 expected wins) and pretty much have their season on the line this week against Denver.  After that, the Bengals (7.5) and Dolphins (7.0) round out the teams within 2 expected wins of the playoffs.

NFC Projections

Seed	This Week	Last Week	Start of Season	If Playoffs Started Today
1	Falcons (12.5)	Falcons (13.34)	Niners (14.3)	Falcons (8-1)
2	Bears (12.2)	Bears (13.33)	Saints (14.0)	Bears (7-2)
3	Niners (11.7)	Niners (12.9)	Packers (12.3)	Niners (6-2-1)
4	Giants (8.9)	Giants (9.9)	Eagles (9.3)	Giants (6-4)
5	Packers (10.8)	Packers (10.9)	Bears (11.6)	Packers (6-3)
6	Bucs (9.1)	Bucs (8.7)	Cardinals (10.6)	Seahawks (6-4)

Two losses and a tie amongst our top 3 seeds this week.  But as Gloria Clemente told us, sometimes when you lose, you actually win.  This is true for Atlanta, who actually widened their expected wins lead on Denver and San Francisco despite their loss to the Saints.  The top 5 teams are largely set here (although Green Bay and Chicago will duke out the NFC North title), but the race for #6 is as tight as ever:  Seattle (8.7), New Orleans (8.5), and Minnesota (8.3) are all within one expected win of Tampa Bay.

"San Francisco, you're so stupid!  You can't expect to tie and then move up in the BQB's playoff projections!"

WEEK 10 PICKS

LAST WEEK: 5-9 against the spread, 6-7-1 outright

SEASON: 73-69-5 against the spread (.514), 88-58-1 outright (.602)

(picks in order of confidence against the spread; outright winner in parentheses):

Big week for the underdogs this week . . .

Jaguars +15 over TEXANS (Texans)

Cardinals +9.5 over FALCONS (Falcons)

Chargers +7.5 over BRONCOS (Broncos)

Jets +3 over RAMS (Jets)

Browns +7.5 over COWBOYS (Cowboys)

Colts +9 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)

BILLS -1.5 over Dolphins (Bills)

CHIEFS +3 over Bengals (Bengals)

PANTHERS +1.5 over Bucs (Bucs)

LIONS +3 over Packers (Packers)

Eagles +3.5 over REDSKINS (Redskins)

RAIDERS +4.5 over Saints (Saints)

Bears +5.5 over NINERS (Niners)

Ravens -3 over STEELERS (Ravens)

Think we’re crazy?  Think we’re brilliant?  Speak up in the comments!

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