Tonight: Bengals -3

Maybe if these guys were involved . . .

The Bengals have won 4 straight.  The Dolphins have lost 4 straight.  Don't make this one harder than it is.

THE PICK: Bengals 34, Dolphins 21

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Week 8 picks

"I knew Calvin Johnson, I served with Calvin Johnson.  Mr. Bryant, you're no Calvin Johnson . . ."

LAST WEEK: 9-6 straight-up, 5-10 ATS
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 ATS
SEASON: 72-35 straight-up, 49-55-2

Cowboys + 3.5 over LIONS (Lions to win): Lions by a FG is likely.

JAGUARS + 16.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Jaguars seem to have a pulse of late.

Dolphins + 6.5 over PATRIOTS (Dolphins to win): This is the Dolphins' season.  They pull out a shocking win at Foxboro.

CHIEFS - 7.5 over Browns: Chiefs and 135 dB crowd overwhelm Weeden & Co.

Bills + 11.5 over SAINTS (Saints to win): Thad Lewis acquits himself well against a porous Saints D to keep it close.

Giants + 5.5 over EAGLES (Giants to win): Eagles have lost 9 straight -- NIINE TIMES -- and are giving points.

Steelers - 2.5 over RAIDERS: Steelers get first win in Oakland since 1995.

Jets + 6.5 over BENGALS (Jets to win): Bengals held on by skin of their teeth last two games -- they regress as the Jets carry momentum from last week to a win.

CARDINALS -2.5 over Falcons: It's only this close a line on reputation -- Arizona has the better team, America just doesn't believe it yet.

BRONCOS - 12.5 over Redskins: Broncos roar back from first -- and maybe only -- loss of the regular season.

Packers - 9.5 over VIKINGS: Vikings in disarray, Packers chugging along.

Seahawks - 10.5 over RAMS: Unless Brett Favre comes to the rescue . . .

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Tonight: Bucs + 6.5

Oh dear . . .

Not as easy a pick as you might think.  Tampa has kept things reasonably close this season at home:

Week 2: Lost to Saints, 16-14
Week 4: Lost to Cardinals, 13-10
Week 6: Lost to Eagles, 31-20
Average margin of loss: 5.3

And Carolina on the road . . .

Week 2: Lost to Bills, 24-23
Week 5: Lost to Cardinals, 22-6
Week 6: Beat Vikings, 35-10
Average margin of victory: 2.6

I feel that the most likely outcome might be Panthers by a TD, but I think Vegas is overreacting to their last 2 weeks.  The chance of a Tampa win is higher than the chance of a blowout.

THE PICK: Panthers 19, Bucs 13

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Week 7 Picks

Great Googly Moogly, the Ch(i)efs are 6-0!

At 6-0, the Chiefs seem like a pretty sure bet to make the playoffs.  As Fifth Down points out, only once since 1990 had a team started 6-0 and missed the playoffs (the '03 Vikings) . . .until the Chiefs' division rival the Broncos did it in 2009 (after the article was published).  We now have the interesting situation of having the league's only 2 undefeated teams in the same division, something that apparently hasn't happened this late int he season since the 30's.  All of which set up a pretty great Week 10 matchup between KC and Denver.  It says here both will win . . . and cover . . . this weekend.

LAST WEEK: 8-6 straight-up, 5-9 against the spread
THIS WEEK: 1-0 straight-up, 0-1 against the spread
SEASON TO DATE: 63-28 straight-up, 44-45-2

Patriots - 4.5 over JETS: Jets emerging as weaker than we might have thought.  Pats can win this one by a TD.

Cowboys + 2.5 over EAGLES (Cowboys to win): A pretty huge game in the NFC East.  Dallas just more talented on both sides of the ball, even without DeMarcus Ware.

FALCONS -7.5 over Bucs: Can't take Tampa on the road under any circumstances.

Bengals - 2.5 over LIONS: Detroit has been pretty up-and-down this season.  This feels like a fallback game after a solid win over Cleveland last week.

PANTHERS - 6.5 over Rams: Line is two points too low after St. Louis's shocking performance last week.

Bears + 1.5 over REDSKINS (Bears to win): Shocking line.

DOLPHINS - 8.5 over Bills: Miami coming off a bye, Bills got all the magic they could out of Thad Lewis already.

Chargers - 7.5 over JAGUARS: Not enough points to make me comfortable taking Jacksonville.

TITANS + 4.5 over Niners (Niners to win): Toughest pick of the weekend.  Ended up taking the points at home.

Browns + 10.5 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Too many points, Vegas overreacting to Browns' discouraging loss to Detroit.

Ravens -+1.5 over STEELERS (Ravens to win): Pittsburgh was really *not* impressive last week against the Jets.  Anyone who thinks the tide has turned based on that win is off base.

CHIEFS - 6.5 over Texans: Houston has to cover a game before I think about legitimately picking them the rest of the season.

Broncos - 6.5 over COLTS: Peyton Manning's swan song.  It really might be all downhill from here, but I say he puts up 45 on his former team.

Vikings + 3.5 over GIANTS (Vikings to win): How the Giants are more than 3 point favorites against anyone is seriously baffling to me.

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Tomorrow night: Cardinals + 6.5

When in doubt, take the home underdog getting almost a touchdown in a divisional game.

THE PICK: Niners 25, Cardinals 21

Week 6 Picks

Is he playing?  Is he sitting?  Is he chowing down on a Dunkin Donuts sandwich?

Seriously, if you drafted Gronk in a fantasy league (and somehow I dodged him in all 5 of mine), how frustrated are you right now?  This week marks the midpoint of the fantasy regular season.  He hasn't played a down, and may not this weekend.

SEASON TO DATE:
55-22 Straight-up
39-36-2 Against the spread

THIS WEEK:
1-0 Straight-up
0-1 Against the spread

Panthers + 2.5 over VIKINGS (Panthers to win): Not even the acquisition of Josh Freeman can take the stink off a Vikings team who has only beaten a winless team (Pittsburgh).

Packers -3 over RAVENS: An elite team vs. a good one.

BROWNS + 2.5 over Lions (Browns to win): No matter who's playing quarterback, the Browns have the defense to slow down Detroit's potent attack.  Look for them to win a game in the 20s.

Eagles -2 over BUCS: Doesn't matter that Brian Hoyer is playing QB for Philly.  Mike Glennon's playing QB for the winless Bucs.

TEXANS - 7.5 over Rams: I think both of these teams are not good at football.

Bengals - 6.5 over BILLS: Thad Lewis alert!

JETS -2.5 over Steelers: Aging Steelers' defense alert!

CHIEFS - 9.5 over Raiders: I am insanely confident that KC will win this game.  9.5 is a lot for a frisky Raiders.  But the Chiefs' average margin of victory is 14, and the Raiders are a worse-than-average opponent playing at Arrowhead.

Titans + 13 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): Just too many points.

BRONCOS - 26.5 over Jaguars: I'd take Denver even if it was 35.  Correlated parlay, anyone?

Saints +2.5 over PATRIOTS (Saints to win): Spare me the bit about Belichick and Brady being incredible after a loss.  New Orleans is the better team.

COWBOYS - 5.5 over Redskins: Washington not a good football team right now.

Colts - 1.5 over CHARGERS: Indianapolis might be the best team in the AFC right now.

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Tonight: BEARS -7 over Giants

Still funny . . .

The Giants are due to right the ship, and the Bears -- especially their defense -- might not be that good.  But I can't in good conscience take a team that hasn't won a game all year, on the road, getting only just a touchdown, against a 3-2 team.

THE PICK: Bears 31, Giants 20

Week 5 picks

Anybody need a QB?  How bout a college coach?

SEASON TO DATE
Outright: 47-16

Against the spread: 32-29-2

THIS WEEK

Outright: 1-0

Against the spread: 1-0

Seahawks -3 over COLTS: I'm taking Seattle in any game, even on the road, if they're a 3 point favorite or less.

RAMS - 11.5 over Jaguars: Can't take the historically-bad Jaguars in any circumstance until they actually compete in a game.

Chiefs -2.5 over TITANS: Tough game, but I just think KC wins, and with a spread under 3, you have to take them ATS as well.

Ravens + 2.5 over DOLPHINS (Dolphins to win outright): Breaking the rule above; this one's super-close, so I'll take the likely push (winning ATS or outright but not both)

BEARS + 1.5 over SAINTS (Bears to win outright): Big bounce-back game for Chicago.  New Orleans is good but they're not 5-0 good.

Eagles + 1 over GIANTS (Eagles to win outright): New York hasn't given us any reason to believe.

Patriots + 1.5 over BENGALS (Patriots to win outright): New England has given us every reason to believe, even without Gronk.

Lions +7 over PACKERS (Packers to win outright): Feels like a 200-total-yard performance for Reggie Bush.

Panthers - 1.5 over CARDINALS: Panthers coming off a bye, Cardinals lost to Mike Glennon last week.

Broncos - 7 over COWBOYS: At the rate this offense is going, take the Broncos every time unless it's 14 at home or 10 on the road, no matter the opponent.

NINERS -6 over Texans: I just think Houston has no shot of scoring more than 17 points in this game.

RAIDERS + 4.5 over Chargers (Raiders to win outright): Figure that the weird start favors the home team.

Jets +9.5 over FALCONS (Falcons to win outright): Atlanta doesn't blow opponents out; the Jets, aside from last week, don't get blown out.

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Tonight: Browns - 3.5

...

The Bills are just too inconsistent for me to get behind them.  Sure, they had an impressive win against the Ravens, but just the previous week couldn't beat a Jets team that gave up a mile in penalty yards.  Cleveland, on the other hand, was so impressive in shutting down Cincinnati last week that you barely saw the game on RedZone.  The Browns have become a popular sleeper to win a weak AFC North.  Tonight, they take a half a game lead, with division co-leaders Cincinnati and Baltimore facing the best of the AFC East (New England and Miami).

THE PICK: Browns 23, Bills 17

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Week 4 Picks

"I tell you what, I would love to meet the Queen . . ."

This is worth your time, especially if you have any familiarity with Steelers' CB Ike Taylor.

THROUGH 3 WEEKS:
Against the spread: 25-21-2
Straight up: 36-12

THIS WEEK:
Against the spread: 0-1
Straight up: 1-0

Colts - 8 over JAGUARS: Just can't bet on Jacksonville right now

Seahawks - 1.5 over TEXANS: This one opened at 3.5, at which point I liked Houston.  Seattle's the better team though; expect them to win the game and cover.

Bears +3 over LIONS (Bears to win): Not quite ready to anoint Detroit just yet, especially given the trouble they had with Washington.

CHIEFS - 4 over Giants: Might be a sucker bet, but I'll take the 3-0 team playing at home by more than 4 over the 0-3 team

Bengals - 3 over BROWNS: Opened at 4.5.  Just weird.  Cleveland was impressive last week but it feels like a backup QB-induced spark.  Those usually last a week.  Brian Hoyer comes back to earth tonight.

Cardinals - 2.5 over BUCS: Mike Glennon!

Ravens - 3 over BILLS: Baltimore should be favored by more after their impressive performance last week.

Vikings + 3 over Steelers (in London, Vikings to win): Free money.  I don't care that Matt Cassel is starting.

RAIDERS + 3.5 over Redskins (Redskins to win): *head explodes*

Jets + 3.5 over TITANS (Titans to win): Interesting game.  Titans by a FG feels right.  Jets are 3-0 ATS but their wins are hardly impressive or convincing (Bills and Bucs, both at home, both by a TD or less).

COWBOYS - 2 over Chargers: Chargers are due to lay an egg.

BRONCOS - 10.5 over Eagles: We have a 2007 Patriots situation here with the Broncos, where you just can't make the line high enough against mediocre teams.

Patriots + 1.5 over FALCONS (Patriots to win): I actually think New England puts it all together in this game in a convincing win

Dolphins + 6.5 over SAINTS (Saints to win): Expect a shoot-out, expect Ryan Tannehill to look remarkably confident, and expect the Saints to win by less than a TD.

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Tonight: Rams +3 over Niners

Hey, remember that time Sam Bradford was a #1 overall pick?

Tough one tonight.  I literally went back and forth about 5 times.  San Fran has looked downright terrible the past two weeks.  Kaepernick looks like a rookie QB, which shouldn't be shocking given that tonight will be just his 11th NFL regular season start.  I may or may not have just benched him in fantasy for Terrelle Pryor.  The Rams, on the other hand, looked putrid last week against Dallas in a game I thought they'd compete in.

In any event, make it easy on yourself: it's two 1-2 teams in a divisional match-up, except the home team's getting a field goal instead of giving it.  Plus, the line moved toward St. Louis, so the smart money's on the Rams.  So is my pick.

THE PICK: Niners 21, Rams 19

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Week 3 picks

Posted to my office door during last week's atrocious 4-12 performance against the spread

SEASON TO DATE
Against the spread: 14-17-1
Straight-up: 25-7

THIS WEEK: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 straight-up

Chargers +3 over TITANS (Chargers to win): One of these teams will be 2-1.  I think Titans left everything on the field against the Texans and have a let down against an underrated offense.  Only worry is that San Diego's playing a 10 a.m. game on the west coast

Browns + 6.5 over VIKINGS (Vikings to win): Running back is the most fungible position in sports.  The Bobby Rainey / Chris Ogbonnaya train won't make the Browns offense much worse than it was with Richardson.  Look for Cleveland to put up a valiant effort in a close loss

Bucs + 7 over PATRIOTS (Patriots to win): Another close Pats win prevents Bostonians from jumping off the Tobin Bridge

Texans -2.5 over RAVENS: Houston squeaks out another one and, like New England, becomes a 3-0 team that absolutely no one's afraid of

Rams + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Rams to win): Sneaky-good game for St. Louis in Atlanta; without a flukey DTD, St. Louis might have won that game.  Dallas isn't nearly as good as Atlanta

SAINTS - 7 over Cardinals: At 7.5, this is much harder.  But the Saints should win by a TD at home

Lions +1 over REDSKINS (Lions to win): Feels like a sucker bet, but all of Washington's offense is in garbage time and Detroit is pretty potent

BENGALS +2.5 over Packers (Bengals to win): Statement game for the Hard Knocks crew

PANTHERS -1 over Giants: Two 0-2 teams; take the one at home that doesn't have 2 extra points of Vegas hype associated with it because it's from New York

DOLPHINS -1 over Falcons: Say it with me, the Miami Dolphins, your 2013 AFC East Champions

Colts +10 over NINERS (Niners to win): And not because of Trent Richardson

Jaguars + 19 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): ???

JETS - 2.5 over Bills: One of these teams will be 2-1 after this game

Bears -2.5 over STEELERS: Steelers may not score two points, so Bears cover if they can get a FG

BRONCOS - 15 over Raiders: Denver might score 50

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Tonight: Chiefs +3 over Eagles

"Whatup Andy!?"

In a battle of two evenly-matched teams, take the coach playing his old team -- the one who knows his players' tendencies -- rather than the other way around.  Also, I love watching Philly more than anyone, but Vegas is a little too excited about them.  The line's too high, and Andy celebrates a win with a "Pat's or Geno's" taste test.

THE PICK: Chiefs 28, Eagles 25

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Week 2 Picks

Think they ever punted?

I'm in a pool where I have to pick 6 games against the spread, and one of them is my "key" pick that's worth an extra point.  So far this year, I've made the Thursday night my key pick.  And as you know if you've been following this blog, I was wrong in both week 1 (thanks, Ravens' D) and week 2 (thanks, Aaron Dobson).  Not a good sign.  Thankfully, I was able to salvage a decent week last week.  Week 2 is below.  Enjoy the games:

LAST WEEK: 9-5-1 against the spread, 13-3 outright
THIS WEEK: 0-1 against the spread, 1-0 outright

EAGLES -7 over Chargers: Believe the hype on Philly.  I absolutely love watching this team.

BILLS +3 over Panthers (Bills to win): Not sure Carolina should be giving a FG on the road to anyone just yet.

Rams + 5 over FALCONS (Falcons to win): Atlanta may not be very good at this point.  Roddy White at less than 80% looms large.

Redskins +7 over PACKERS (Packers to win): Not sure we know if either of these teams is good this year.  Take the points.

Browns + 6.5 over RAVENS (Ravens to win): Ugh.

Dolphins + 2.5 over COLTS (Dolphins to win): Miami might win the AFC East.

Titans + 8.5 over TEXANS (Texans to win): Houston scrapes by again; along with the Pats, they'll be an underwhelming 2-0 team.

BEARS - 6.5 over Vikings: Minnesota was way worse than the score indicated last week against Detroit.

CHIEFS - 2.5 over Cowboys: The Arrowhead home field advantage makes the difference.

Lions - 2 over CARDINALS: Detroit scored like 8 touchdowns last week, except 4 got called back due to penalty or Calvin Johnson violating the Calvin Johnson rule.

Saints - 3 over BUCS: "Captain" Josh Freeman leads the Bucs to v . . . oh, wait.

GIANTS +4.5 over Broncos (Broncos to win): Vegas overreacting on both teams.

Jaguars + 5.5 over RAIDERS (Jaguars to win): Chad Henne ends the Blaine Gabbert era with a convincing win against the Raiders.

Niners + 3 over SEAHAWKS (Seahawks to win): Two evenly matched teams.  Home field is actually worth a little less than 3 points these days though, so take the points.

BENGALS - 6.5 over Steelers: As much as it pains me . . .

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TONIGHT'S PICK: Pats - 11

It's Geno time . . .

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

ROOKIE QB ON THE ROAD IN A PRIMETIME HOME OPENER!

The Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 9

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