Week 5 Preview and Picks

Vikings fans have come a long way from the dog days of Moss and Culpepper

First things first: we couldn't have been more wrong about last night's pick.  Here's hoping Kevin Kolb still has all of his limbs attached after getting sacked nine times last night.

Onward to the rest of the week, where we pause to look at a surprise juggernaut in Minneapolis.  The Vikings quietly sit tied with the Bears atop the NFC North standings with a 3-1 record.  Among those chiefly responsible for their ascent?  QB Christian Ponder, who ranks 10th in ESPN's Total QBR ratings, ahead of Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, among others.  Ponder was 29th in last year's rankings and is a big reason for Minnesota's turnaround.

Our preseason model didn't think much of Minnesota, projecting only 1.7 wins, a total they nearly doubled in September alone, and we had them worst in the NFC in free agency.  But those rankings only took into account performance to date, not potential, and we knew the Vikings would be going with a youth movement this year.  We called out their young / inexperienced starting guards, Brandon Fusco and Charlie Johnson, calling the guard position a "potential nightmare" this year.  The 2 have performed admirably; Minnesota has the #6-ranked offensive line in the league on the run and is in the middle of the pack in the rare instances they throw the ball.  Sometimes your young players perform, sometimes they don't.  The former appears true so far in Minnesota, with Fusco, Johnson, and Ponder leading the way.

How long might the fun continue in the great white north?  While no one (ourselves included) is picking Minnesota to outlast Green Bay or Chicago, the schedule appears friendly in the near term:

Week 5: TITANS (1-3)
Week 6: at Redskins (2-2)
Week 7: CARDINALS (4-1)
Week 8: BUCS (3-1)
Week 9: at Seahawks (2-2)
Week 10: LIONS (1-3)

Minnesota could have trouble with any of the 5, but none stand out as a clear loss.  Is it so crazy to think the Vikes will go 4-2 over this stretch and be sitting at 7-3 with 6 games to play?

The bye follows week 10 and, with it, the Vikings may well fall back to earth -- their 6-game stretch run includes 2 games apiece against Chicago and Green Bay as well as road games in St. Louis and Houston.  So enjoy it while it lasts, Vikings fans.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
For those scoring at home, we're weighting our preseason projections at 73%, and season-to-date Pythagorean performance at 27% (note: we're debating bringing down the preseason weighting at a faster clip going forward).  As always, expected wins are in parentheses.

AFC Division Champs: Ravens (10.4), Texans (10.4), Chargers (9.9), Jets (9.0)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.7), Broncos (8.8)
New to the field: Broncos; Dropped out: Bills (7.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.1), Falcons (11.9), Bears (11.3), Eagles (9.8)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.0), Packers (10.3)
No changes since last week

DO TEAMS PLAY BETTER AFTER THE BYE?
A few of the lines looked a bit off this week -- particularly the 1-2 Steelers, who are 3 point favorites at home against 3-1 Philadelphia.  A lot of the pundits assessing this game cite that the Steelers are coming off a bye and will likely be with the services of Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and Rashard Mendenhall, none of whom have suited up this year.

Isn't great that we've got a bye this week?  ISN'T IT!?

In this instance, it's clear the bye week helps the Steelers.  Conventional wisdom holds that in general, regardless of a team's injury situation, it does better after a bye.  We sought to set that theory, along with the corollary -- if it does, has Vegas caught on?

We looked at every game played since 2008 where one team was coming off a bye and the other was not.  There were 111 such games.  58 times the team coming off the bye played at home, 53 on the road.  Teams win games by an average of 2.5 points, so we would have expected teams coming off the bye to win by a very small amount -- it turns out to be 0.1 points.  In reality, teams coming off a bye won by an average of 1.6 points, implying a 1.5 point benefit from coming off a bye.

So, has Vegas caught on yet?  Somewhat.  In the same set of games, the team coming off the bye was favored by an average of 0.6 points.  So Vegas gave them an extra half point, when in reality they should be giving them an extra 1.5 points.

The result?  Teams coming off a bye are 59-47-5 against the spread since 2008, good for 55.7%.  It's not a slam-dunk by any stretch, but there does appear to be some value, all things equal, in picking teams after a bye.  Good news for the Colts and Steelers this week, both of whom got a 1.5-point bump when we crunched the numbers for our picks this week.

WEEK 5 PICKS
Our model still doesn't think all that much of the Texans, Vikings, and Patriots, and that's reflected in our picks below.  The Jets, despite all their injuries, may represent Houston's toughest test to date.  A resounding win at MetLife Stadium will go a long way toward convincing us that the Texans are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

LAST WEEK: 7-8 against the spread, 11-4 outright
SEASON: 33-26-4 against the spread (.559), 43-20 overall (.717)
THIS WEEK: 0-1 against the spread, 0-1 outright

(in order of confidence, outright winner in parentheses):

JETS +9 over Texans (Jets)
Titans +5.5 over VIKINGS (Titans)
Broncos +6.5 over PATRIOTS (Patriots)
SAINTS -3.5 over Chargers (Saints)
CHIEFS +6 over Ravens (Ravens)
Browns + 8.5 over GIANTS (Giants)
BENGALS -3 over Dolphins (Bengals)
COLTS +7 over Packers (Packers)
PANTHERS -3 over Seahawks (Panthers)
STEELERS -3 over Eagles (Steelers)
REDSKINS +3 over Falcons (Falcons)
NINERS -9.5 over Bills (Niners)
Bears -4.5 over JAGUARS (Bears)

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Week 5: Thursday Night Pick

We'll be back tomorrow with the week 4 review / week 5 preview and picks.  For now, we like the Cardinals -2.5 tonight, both against the spread and to win straight-up, with a pretty high degree of confidence.  (We haven't run the numbers yet, but I would suspect this game will be in the top 4 or 5 in terms of our confidence level among the 14 games this weekend.)

While we think St. Louis is sneaky-good (or at least sneaky-not-that-bad), their offense is the worst in the league according to Football Outsiders.  Meanwhile, Arizona's defense is ranked sixth.  Translation: St. Louis might struggle to get into double digits.

More tomorrow.  Stay tuned.

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Week 4 Preview and Picks

Ed Hochuli appears to be in game shape . . .

Whew.  It took a football disaster, but the referee debacle is finally behind us, and not a moment too soon.  The regular refs will take the field tonight for the Browns-Ravens game and will likely be cheered wildly . . . until the first bad pass interference call.

Onward to week 4.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

AFC Division Winners (in order of seed and with expected wins): Ravens (10.5), Jets (10.3), Texans (9.6), Chargers (9.2)
AFC Wild Cards: Bengals (9.0), Bills (8.6)
New since last week: Bills; Dropped out: Steelers (8.5)

NFC Division Winners: Niners (12.5), Falcons (11.7), Bears (11.1), Eagles (9.3)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.8), Packers (10.2)
New since last week: Bears; Dropped out: Saints (9.6)

(Note for those keeping tabs: the expected wins formula is now 77% preseason expectation, 23% season rating.)

In the AFC, our projections align nicely with the current records, as every 2-1 and 3-0 team makes it into our projected field.  (And yes, the fact that only 6 of 16 teams have a winning record is a testament to the weakness of the AFC this year.)

Not so in the much stronger NFC, where we've got the 1-2 Packers in the field largely on the strength of their expected rankings -- we pegged them at 12.3 wins at the start of the year, and even though their Pythagorean expectation is middling (57 points for, 54 points against), right now their preseason rating is enough to get them in.  Not so for the Saints, who we had at 14 wins at the start of the year but who have looked ugly all year (83 points for, 102 points against).

Cowboys (8.1 expected wins), Seahawks (7.9), Giants (7.7), and Vikings (4.9) fans all probably have a beef with our projections, as their clubs all have 2-1 records and are left out of the field.

The Niners' surprising loss to Minnesota last week didn't drop them off their perch as the best expected record in the NFL, but the Cardinals (currently a game up on San Francisco in the standings) are right on their heels.  The two square off Monday night during week 8 in Tempe.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE -- MORE SIGNIFICANT IN PRIME TIME?

Conventional wisdom holds that home field advantage is enhanced during night games.  The national spotlight is on the game, crowds have a few extra hours to tailgate, and the crowd finds itself hyped up more than usual.  The Ravens even petitioned the league in 2009 to not have to play primetime road games against division rival Pittsburgh.

Is there anything to the notion that teams really are better at home in primetime than at home during normal hours?  To find out, we looked at the 1,024 regular season games played between 2008 and 2011, with a special emphasis on the 174 games played on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday nights (or, in the case of the Metrodome imploding, Tuesday night).  The results are below:

Comparison of Primetime Games to All Regular Season Games, 2008-2011

	Primetime	All Games
Average home margin of victory	3.7	2.5
Average spread by which home team is favored	2.3	2.4
% of time home team covers spread	52.6%	47.6%

The results are statistically relevant, and they seem to imply that:

- Home teams do a little over a point better at home in primetime than at home in general
- Vegas hasn't quite caught on, as spreads are about equal for the home team in primetime and in general
- Unsurprisingly, home teams have covered in primetime more frequently (52.6%) than in general (47.6%)

Recall that for a bet to be profitable, it has to be right not 50% of the time but 52.4% due to the vig, and the 52.6% figure is (barely) above that.  At the very least, it seems that teams are a little more than a point better at home in primetime than in general.  Which bodes well for Baltimore (tonight), Philadelphia (Sunday), and Dallas (Monday).  Our picks will take this into account for this week and the future.

WEEK 4 PICKS

Worth calling out this week:

- Look for the Titans to make it a game against Houston, who still hasn't played anyone.
- It'll be panic time in Boston Monday morning as the Patriots drop to 1-3
- The Cowboys shouldn't be favored against the Bears, regardless of the venue.  Unless Terrible Jay Cutler shows up.

Last week: 8-7-1 against the spread, 8-8 overall
Season: 26-18-4 against the spread (.591), 32-16 overall (.667)

Picks in order of confidence, with outright winner in parentheses:

Titans + 12 over TEXANS (Texans)
Saints +7.5 over PACKERS (Packers)
BILLS +4 over Patriots (Bills)
Bears + 3.5 over COWBOYS (Bears)
LIONS - 4.5 over Vikings (Lions)
EAGLES -1.5 over Giants (Eagles)
Chargers +1 over CHIEFS (Chargers)
Panthers +7 over FALCONS (Falcons)
JETS +4 over Niners (Niners)
Browns + 12 over RAVENS (Ravens)
Seahawks -2.5 over RAMS (Seahawks)
BRONCOS -6.5 over Raiders (Broncos)
BUCS -3 over Redskins (Bucs)
JAGUARS +2.5 over Bengals (Bengals)
DOLPHINS +6 over Cardinals (Cardinals)
Bye: Steelers, Colts

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What the NFL Should Have Said in its Statement on the Packers-Seahawks Game

The end to Monday night's game: an affront to the integrity of the NFL

The NFL issued a formal statement today regarding the ending of last night's Packers-Seahawks game.  Here's the statement they should have issued:

To all NFL players, coaches, and fans:

We messed up.  As anyone watching the ending of Monday night's Packers-Seahawks game can attest, Packers' defensive back M.D. Jennings intercepted the pass on the final play.  As ESPN's replay cameras showed rather clearly, Jennings gained control of the ball first.  Seahawks wide receiver Golden Tate did not, nor was control gained simultaneously by both players.  As such, Seattle should not have scored a touchdown and the game should have ended with the Packers winning, 12-7.

The incorrect ruling on the field was that of a simultaneous catch, in which the offense is awarded possession and, in this case, a touchdown.  The replay official did not find conclusive evidence to overturn that ruling.  As such, the ruling on the field could not be overturned, the play stood as called, and Seattle was awarded a touchdown and the resultant victory.

If the NFL stands for anything, it is the integrity of its game.  Without that integrity, the league as we know it ceases to exist.  It's one of the biggest reasons pro football has achieved its current level of popularity.  There is no question that our regular corps of officials, while still also prone to human error (see this blown call from one of our best, Ed Hochuli), are far superior to the current crews officiating our games today.  We know that integrity will be enhanced once the regular officials are back to work.  Please know that we are doing everything in our power to do so.  At the same time, please respect the fact that this is a labor dispute and that both our position and the officials union's position has merit.  We promise that we're working to find common ground.  In the meantime, we are happy to announce that we have hired Miles Austin, a retired official with 27 years' experience, and Mike Pereira, for NFL Head of Officiating, from their jobs at ESPN and FOX, respectively, to serve as special replay booth advisers.  Either Miles or Mike will receive a live replay feed from every game from league offices in New York, and their input will be considered by the officials during every replay review.  We hope this will aid the officials on the field.  We ask you all to support them as much as you can, as they are doing their very best to act as a short-term remedy for our league.  Without the replacement officials, there would be no NFL season.

As for last night's finish, we are making an unprecedented decision: the league office is overturning the call on the field.  Citing conclusive -- if not quite indisputable -- evidence, the league office is holding the position that the ball was intercepted, and, as such, is awarding the Packers a 12-7 victory and the Seahawks a 12-7 loss.

We have no doubt that the millions of NFL fans watching replays on TV agree with us that our officiating crew made the wrong call on the field.  And we feel it is in the best interest of the integrity of the game to, above all else, get the call right.

We realize that this precedent, if abused, could be quite dangerous.  As such, the league decrees that rulings on the field may be changed or overturned outside the course of the normal review process only under the following 3 conditions:

1. That the play in question is either the last play of the game or the last play before a kneel situation to run out the clock.*
2. That the outcome of regulation (a win for either team or overtime) or, in the case of overtime, the outcome of overtime (a win for either team or a tie) be swung by the decision.
3. That a preponderance of the video evidence support the overturning of the call.  Note that the burden of proof is NOT conclusive evidence, as we believe that video replay technology is sufficiently advanced that, with sufficient angles and time to review, it is a far better means of deciding a close play than the real-time reaction of an official who may or may not have the perfect angle.

[note: The 2 sentences below were added the day after the original post and were inspired by Feedback from reader Belbogen.]

Also, the "outside-the-process" review must happen before the officials leave the field at the game.  Meaning this is the only time we'll ever reverse a ruling the day after a game goes "final."


It is our sincere hope that this is the last time the league office will have to make such a decision.  We are sure it will be met with backlash -- as difficult as it must have been for Green Bay to lose last night in the fashion it did, it must be ten times worse for the Seahawks to lose the day after.

However, we once again must base our decision in this matter on the integrity of the game.  The Packers intercepted the ball.  Everyone saw it.  The right call is an interception.  And in this case, that means reversing the outcome of the game.

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*- Kneel situation defined as any situation in which:
(1) The team with the ball is leading
(2) The time on the clock is less than 40 seconds times (the number of downs until fourth down minus the number of timeouts the trailing team has)

Week 2 Recap / Week 3 Preview

Somewhere, Rod Tidwell is smiling at the Cardinals' early season success

WEEK 2 RECAP
A quick look at where we hit and missed in week 2, highlighting the plights of 5 teams:

1. Cardinals: Our boldest predictions of the '12 season involved the Cardinals and their Week 2 opponents, New England.  We were bullish on Arizona (our model had them at 10+ wins and a playoff berth) and seemed to be the only people on the planet bearish on New England (sub .500 for the first time since 2000).  Cardinals +13.5 was our lock of the week last week, and it hit, with plenty of room to spare.

The craziest part of the Cardinals' victory was that WR Larry Fitzgerald was all but absent from it; Fitzgerald had a single catch for 4 yards on Arizona's opening drive.  We figured the Cardinals' defense would be good this year, and through 2 weeks, the numbers justify that premise: their 34 points allowed is second in the AFC, and Football Outsiders ranks their defense 8th of 32.  Patrick Peterson is the household name, but look for names like LB Daryl Washington, LB Paris Lenon, and DE Calais Campbell to become part of NFL vernacular as the season rolls on.  We wouldn't be surprised if all 3 make the Pro Bowl.

2. Patriots: Arizona was a pretty good team, so New Englanders should stop short of entering full-fledged panic mode.  Having said that, the problems on the o-line shouldn't be too shocking -- we had the Pats' offseason fifth worst in the AFC, largely due to losing Matt Light, the most valuable player lost by any AFC team.  Light's weighted value of 65 was second only to Carl Nicks (84; he went from New Orleans to Tampa in the NFC).  Brandon Lloyd hasn't proven himself able to get in sync with Tom Brady, and New England is missing Deion Branch more than many thought it would.  It gets no easier for the Patriots this week playing in Baltimore, home of the NFL's best home field advantage, even with the "Bill Belichick after a loss" corollary looming (more on that below).

3. Niners: 2 playoff teams from last year, 2 convincing -- if not blow-out -- victories for San Francisco, the BQB's Super Bowl pick at the start of the season.  The big story here is still QB Alex Smith, who improved on last year's ranking and currently ranks second in QB rating and fourth in ESPN's Total QBR.  Again, this is a guy who ranked 22nd in Total QBR last year, and his team went 13-3.  If Smith can even crack the top half of QBs this year, watch out.

4. Jets: Fans of our other Super Bowl pick, the Jets, came back to earth this week following a 27-10 loss in Pittsburgh.  The Jets have long had trouble with the Steelers, especially in Pittsburgh, but Mark Sanchez's 10-for-27 performance was downright ugly, especially against a Steelers D missing 2 starters.  Which Sanchez is the real one -- the one who put up 48 points against Buffalo or the one who got shut out in the second half against the Steelers?  We probably won't find out this week, when the Jets travel to lowly Miami. But we'll definitely know in 2 weeks, when they play the Niners.  Stay tuned.

5. Texans: We didn't have the Texans in the playoffs at the start of the season.  At the same time, our model did have them starting 2-0 against two weak opponents, the Dolphins and the Jaguars.  Which they did.  No big deal.  And while the model now has them in the playoffs -- due as much to the putridity of the rest of the AFC South than anything else -- they face a brutal stretch the next 5 games:

Week 3: At Denver
Week 4: Home vs. Tennessee
Week 5 At New York Jets
Week 6: Home vs. Green Bay
Week 7: Home vs. Baltimore

Houston lucks out in playing the toughest teams in that stretch (Green Bay and Baltimore) at home, but regardless, they could be a half decent team and go 2-3 or even 1-4 in that stretch.  Bottom line: we should know a lot more about the Texans by mid-October.

"Hmmm . . . that schedule looks pretty tough the next 5 weeks . . ."

Last, but not least, last week we noted that teams who won by 20 or more in week 1 were 1-6 against the spread since 2009.  5 such teams won by 20 or more in week 1 this week -- the Bears, Patriots, Texans, Jets, and Ravens.  Those teams went 1-3-1 against the spread last week, with the Texans the only winner and the Ravens a push against Philly.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
See last week's post for our methodology.  We've adjusted the weightings to 81% preseason rating and 19% Pythagorean Expectation for this year.

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Chargers (10.9 expected wins), Ravens (10.3), Jets (10.1), Texans (9.3)
AFC Wild Cards: Steelers (9.9), Bengals (8.9)
New since last week: Bengals; Dropped out: Patriots (7.7)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Eagles (11.8), Falcons (11.2), Packers (11.2)
NFC Wild Cards: Cardinals (11.1), Saints (10.9)
New since last week: Packers; Dropped out: Bears (10.8)

Again, it's worth pointing out the NFC's superiority over the AFC; through 2 weeks, NFC teams are 7-1 against the AFC (Indy's win over Minnesota was the AFC's lone win).  We're projecting 7 10-win teams in the NFC and just 3 in the AFC.

WEEK 3 PREVIEW

Everybody and their mother is yapping about how the Patriots are unbeatable after a loss in the Belichick era.  We at the BQB took it upon ourselves to crunch the numbers.

Patriots Record After a Loss and After a Win, Bill Belichick Era

Year	Record After a Loss	Record After a Win
2000	4-6	1-4
2001	4-1	7-3
2002	3-4	5-3
2003	2-0	12-1
2004	2-0	11-2
2005	5-0	4-6
2006	3-1	8-3
2007	0-0	15-0
2008	5-0	5-5
2009	3-1	5-6
2010	2-0	11-2
2011	2-1	10-2
2012	0-0	0-1
Total	35-14 (.714)	94-38 (.712)
Since 2003	24-3 (.889)	81-27 (.750)

Taking the Belichick era as a whole, the Pats win almost exactly as often after a loss as after a win -- the difference in win percentage is 0.2%  Since 2003, the difference is a little more pronounced -- those who speak only in headlines would shout that the Pats have lost back-to-back games only 3 times in the past 10 seasons.  And though they'd be right, the fact remains that New England was really good after wins too; they were ~14% more likely to win after a loss than after a win.  That's a little more significant, but not nearly as much as many are pontificating.  For our part, we won't consider it as we assess New England's chances in the Sunday night game at Baltimore, where they're 3 point dogs.

WEEK 3 PICKS

(Note: our model actually had Arizona winning outright last week (no joke), but we failed to print that.  To avoid such issues in the future, we're listing our picks both outright and against the spread from here on out.)

Last week, against the spread: 9-4-3

Season, against the spread: 18-11-3 (.581)
Season, outright: 24-8 (.750)

Week 3 picks (in order of confidence):

PANTHERS +1 over Giants (Panthers to win outright)

Bucs + 7 over COWBOYS (Bucs)

Niners -7 over VIKINGS (Niners)

Bengals + 3.5 over REDSKINS (Bengals)

CARDINALS +4 over Eagles (Cardinals)

Jaguars +3 over COLTS (Jaguars)

TITANS + 3.5 over Lions (Lions)

Falcons + 3 over CHARGERS (Chargers)

BEARS -9 over Rams (Bears)

Steelers -4 over RAIDERS (Steelers)

RAVENS -3 over Patriots (Ravens)

SAINTS -9 over Chiefs (Saints)

Bills -3 over BROWNS (Bills)

BRONCOS +2 over Texans (Texans)

Jets -3 over DOLPHINS (Jets)

Packers -3.5 over SEAHAWKS (Packers)



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Week 1 Recap / Week 2 Preview

Alex Smith, unsung hero in the Niners' impressive 30-22 Week 1 victory over Green Bay

WEEK 1 RECAP

Our season preview ruffled some feathers last week, especially in Massachusetts.  Let's take a quick look at where we hit and where we missed base on week 1's results.

Where we were right: Niners, Jets, Cardinals, Bears

Niners: Our projections had San Francisco winning a whopping 14 games this year and winning the Super Bowl, and beating the Packers at Lambeau went a long way toward cementing them as one of the NFL's elite teams.  Most of the hype was about the defense -- the Packers had only 7 points in the first 3 quarters -- and the Niners' 186 yards on the ground.  Not enough is being said about QB Alex Smith who had an incredibly efficient line of 20/26, 211 yards, 2 TDs, no picks, and a passer rating of 125.6.  Smith's ESPN QBR was 8th in the league last week.  Last year, he was 22nd and the Niners were a fumble away from the NFC Title Game.  If he can remain a top 10 quarterback in the league, watch out.  Look for San Fran to continue their dominance against Detroit, who looked rather pedestrian in a home win against St. Louis last week.

Jets: Remember the preseason when the Jets scored one offensive touchdown?  So much for that.  The offense looked pristine against an admittedly-overmatched Bills defense in putting up 48 points, the most by a Jets team since week 4 of the 2008 season, when Brett Favre put up a 56 spot on an Arizona defense that ended up going to the Super Bowl.  (That was a weird sentence to write.)  Much was written this offseason about the Jets lack of offensive weapons -- specifically a #2 WR.  Through a week, rookie Stephen Hill and journeyman Jeremy Kerley seem more than up to the task.  They face a tougher challenge in Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Cardinals: It was ugly, and it barely involved John Skelton, but Arizona got a win they had to have if they're going to compete this year.  As expected, the Cards defense was solid, holding Seattle and rookie QB Russell Wilson to a single touchdown.  New QB Kevin Kolb is probably the more talented QB than Skelton, and for now, we're not budging from our 10-win prediction from the Cardinals.

Bears: If Brandon Marshall could catch, the Bears' 41-21 might have been even more lopsided.  As expected, the Bears took care of business against #1 overall pick Andrew Luck and the Colts.  As expected, the reuniting of Jay Cutler and Marshall proved potent, with the two hooking up 9 times for 119 yards and a TD, even with all the drops.  Huge game tonight for Chicago -- if they can get a win, they'll open up a 2 game lead on Green Bay with the tiebreak, and will be in good position to cruise into the bye week (next 3 games: home for St. Louis, at Dallas, at Jacksonville, then the bye).

Where we were wrong: Patriots, Saints, Steelers, Broncos

Patriots: The Pats' 3-touchdown win over Tennessee was even more lopsided than the score indicates.  New England's tight ends create matchup problems our model doesn't adequately capture, and if Stevan Ridley is going to be as good as he looked in week 1, New England could be as good as the rest of the public thinks they'll be.  I also have to note that the Pats draft picks -- we ranked their draft worst in the NFL -- came through in a big way on Sunday.  Even "worst pick in the draft" Tavon Wilson had an interception.  Maybe Bill Belichick & Co. are just that good as talent evaluators.

Saints: So much for Bountygate rallying the Saints, who stumbled to their first loss at the Superdome since 2010 in the stunner of the week.  RG3's debut was the big story here, but the porous Saints' D looked as bad as ever, and mental mistakes plagued New Orleans all day (not a shocker given that they had their interim interim head coach at the helm).  Big divisional road game for New Orleans at Carolina this week.

Steelers / Broncos: This game was tighter than the 31-19 final score indicated, but you really can't say enough about Peyton Manning.  Every other writer / blogger has gushed about Manning so we won't do so here, except to note the success he had in Indianapolis with an otherwise-average team: from 2002 to 2010, the Colts won 10 games every year and qualified for the playoffs every year.  Denver's D is better than Indy's ever was.  If Denver can keep Manning upright, they might be more of a force than we thought in a weak AFC West.

As for Pittsburgh, our other Conference runner up (along with the Saints), the defense looked like it was missing 3 starters from last year (James Farrior, William Gay, and Ryan Clark).  We'll see if they're able to have any success against the Sanchez/Tebow combo in what suddenly becomes a big home game this week.

UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS

Every week, we'll update our playoff projections by revamping our expected wins calculation each week:

1. Project the rest of the season: Use our preseason rankings (85% weight) and a team's Pythagorean expectation from this season (15% weight) -- we'll amend those weightings as the season goes on (skewing away from preseason rankings) to get expected wins for the next 15 games

2. Add number of wins so far (in this case, 1 if the team won last week, 0 if they lost)

Using the Jets as an example:

Initial rating: 10.9
Pythagorean expectation based on 48-28 win: 48^2 / (48^2 + 28^2) = 0.75*16 = 11.9
New expected wins (16 games): 11.1 (10.9 x 85% + 11.9 x 15%)
New expected wins (15 games, since 1 is already played): 10.4 (11.1 x 15 / 16)
Wins so far: 1
New expected wins: 10.4 + 1 = 11.4

AFC Division Champs (in order of seed): Jets (11.4 wins), Ravens (11.2), Chargers (10.0), Texans (8.5)
AFC Wild Card: Steelers (9.0), Patriots (8.4)
Added: Texans, Patriots  Dropped out: Bengals (8.1), Titans (6.9)

NFC Division Champs: Niners (13.9), Saints (12.0), Bears (12.0), Eagles (11.7)
NFC Wild Card: Falcons (10.9), Cardinals (10.8)
Added: Falcons  Dropped out: Packers (10.6)

WEEK 2 PREVIEW

We live in a world of instant reaction (or, if you prefer, instant overreaction), and with 5 20+ victories in week 1, followers of the NFL are no different.  In recent years, however, we've seen a big reversion to the mean in week 2 with blowout winners in week 1.  In fact, teams that won their opening game by 20 points or more are just 1-6 against the spread in week 2 since 2009 and just 2-5 outright.  This implies that spreads move big time based on the first week's results -- maybe too much.

The 5 big winners last week were the Jets, Patriots, Texans, Bears, and Ravens.  Just 2 are favorites (Patriots and Texans) in week 2.  Our picks project that trend to largely continue; of the 5 big winners last week, we only have the Jets covering the spread.

Maybe the Pats will get points if Gronk successfully completes a spike this week.  They might need
them to cover the 2 touchdown spread against Arizona.

WEEK 2 PICKS, in order of confidence:
Cardinals + 13.5 over PATRIOTS
Bucs + 7 over GIANTS
BENGALS -7 over Browns
FALCONS -3 over Broncos
NINERS -7 over Lions
EAGLES -1 over Ravens
Saints -3 over PANTHERS
BILLS -3 over Chiefs
COLTS +1.5 over Vikings
DOLPHINS +1 over Raiders
Redskins -3 over RAMS
JAGUARS +7 over Texans
CHARGERS -6 over Titans
Jets + 5.5 over STEELERS
SEAHAWKS +3 over Cowboys
PACKERS -4.5 over Bears

Last week: 9-7

Enjoy Week 2.  See you next week.

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