 |
| Bill Cowher waited 14 years for his franchise QB |
As November
turns to December, quarterback play becomes increasingly important. Bill Cowher needed 14 seasons to get the
Steelers a Lombardi trophy. Throughout
those 14 seasons, his teams consistently had superior defenses and running
games, but they had nothing approaching a franchise quarterback. The Steelers starters in that era? Neil O’Donnell, Jim Miller, Mike Tomczak,
Kordell Stewart, Kent Graham, and Tommy Maddox. Cowher was later quoted as saying that if
the experience taught him anything, it was that you needed a franchise QB to
win a title in the NFL. Ben
Roethlisberger was that QB for Cowher and the Steelers; he didn’t play great
in Super Bowl XLV, but without his play down the stretch and in the playoffs,
the Steelers never make it to the Super Bowl that year.
ESPN’s Total QBR rating does a fair job
of ranking the league’s quarterbacks. As
you might expect, most of the teams expected to make the playoffs have QBs in
the top half of these ratings (or better).
However, a few playoff contenders' QBs stick out like Waldo. Those QBs – and their potentially-doomed teams – after the jump.
 |
| ... |
We’ve
bucketed the QBR rankings from the past 4 years (ESPN only goes back to 2008)
to reveal the relative success level by quartile:
QB’s Rank in QBR
|
% Made Playoffs
|
% Made Super Bowl
|
1-8
|
69%
|
16%
|
9-16
|
50%
|
6%
|
17-24
|
16%
|
3%
|
25+
|
13%
|
0%
|
Clearly, you
see a huge drop off. Thankfully for the
QBs in the hunt for the playoffs, none are in the bottom quartile (Buffalo, San
Diego, the Jets, and Arizona share the best record of that bunch at 4-7). But 3 potential playoff QBs – Andy Dalton
(CIN), Joe Flacco (BAL), and Jay Cutler (CHI) lie in the 17-24 range. This metric would suggest those QBs have
roughly one-fifth the chance of making the Super Bowl as the QBs and teams in
the top quartile – Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (DEN), Matt Ryan (ATL),
Andrew Luck (IND), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), and potentially Alex Smith (SF),
depending on how you want to deal with him given his recent benching.
Especially bad
news for fans of the Ravens and Bears, both of whom are in position to compete
for a bye come January.
UPDATED PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
AFC Projections
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Texans (13.0 wins)
|
Texans (12.8)
|
Jets (10.9)
|
Texans (10-1)
|
2
|
Ravens (12.4)
|
Ravens (11.6)
|
Steelers (10.5)
|
Ravens (9-2)
|
3
|
Patriots (11.5)
|
Patriots (10.9)
|
Chargers (9.3)
|
Patriots (8-3)
|
4
|
Broncos (11.1)
|
Broncos (10.7)
|
Titans (8.3)
|
Broncos (8-3)
|
5
|
Bengals (9.2)
|
Steelers (9.7)
|
Ravens (10.2)
|
Colts (7-4)
|
6
|
Colts (8.8)
|
Bengals (8.4)
|
Bengals (10.0)
|
Steelers (6-5)
|
The Colts
and Steelers both played teams they were supposed to beat last week;
Indianapolis won, Pittsburgh didn’t, and the Colts replace the Steelers in our
projected playoff pool. Pittsburgh is
just barely on the outside looking in (8.7 expected wins), but that doesn’t account
for the injured Ben Roethlisberger.
Without him, Pittsburgh has never beaten Baltimore, who it plays this
week in an effort to stay above .500.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati plays floundering San Diego and Indianapolis
travels to Ford Field to play the Lions.
NFC Projections
Seed
|
This
Week
|
Last
Week
|
Start
of Season
|
If
Playoffs Started Today
|
1
|
Falcons (13.0)
|
Falcons (12.8)
|
Niners (14.3)
|
Falcons (10-1)
|
2
|
Niners (12.6)
|
Niners (12.6)
|
Saints (14.0)
|
Niners (8-2-1)
|
3
|
Bears (11.4)
|
Packers (11.1)
|
Packers (12.3)
|
Bears (8-3)
|
4
|
Giants (9.8)
|
Giants (9.0)
|
Eagles (9.3)
|
Giants (7-4)
|
5
|
Packers (9.9)
|
Bears (10.9)
|
Bears (11.6)
|
Packers (7-4)
|
6
|
Bucs (8.9)
|
Bucs (9.7)
|
Cardinals (10.6)
|
Seahawks (6-5)
|
No changes
to the field, but the Bears and Packers flip-flop on the strength of the Giants
shellacking of Green Bay on Sunday night.
Also, the Bucs remain less than a tenth-of-a-win ahead of Seattle. Right now, the 2 are both 6-5, and they don’t
play each other this year. Currently,
the Seahawks would win any tiebreak due to conference record.
WEEK 13 PICKS
LAST WEEK: 7-8-1 against the spread,
7-9 outright
SEASON: 86-83-1 against the spread
(.509), 108-67-1 outright (.616)
(picks in order of confidence against the
spread; outright winner in parentheses):
TITANS +6 over Texans (Texans)
DOLPHINS +9 over Patriots (Patriots)
REDSKINS +2.5 over Giants (Redskins)
Eagles +10 over Cowboys (Cowboys)
Bucs +7 over BRONCOS (Broncos)
Cardinals +4.5 over JETS (Jets)
CHARGERS +1.5 over Bengals (Chargers)
Jaguars +6 over BILLS (Bills)
Niners -7 over RAMS (Niners)
BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks (Bears)
CHIEFS +3 over Panthers (Panthers)
Saints +3.5 over FALCONS (Falcons)
LIONS -5 over Colts (Lions)
Browns +1.5 over RAIDERS (Raiders)
Vikings +7.5 over PACKERS (Packers)
RAVENS -6.5 over Steelers (Ravens)
TITANS +6 over Texans (Texans)
DOLPHINS +9 over Patriots (Patriots)
REDSKINS +2.5 over Giants (Redskins)
Eagles +10 over Cowboys (Cowboys)
Bucs +7 over BRONCOS (Broncos)
Cardinals +4.5 over JETS (Jets)
CHARGERS +1.5 over Bengals (Chargers)
Jaguars +6 over BILLS (Bills)
Niners -7 over RAMS (Niners)
BEARS -3.5 over Seahawks (Bears)
CHIEFS +3 over Panthers (Panthers)
Saints +3.5 over FALCONS (Falcons)
LIONS -5 over Colts (Lions)
Browns +1.5 over RAIDERS (Raiders)
Vikings +7.5 over PACKERS (Packers)
RAVENS -6.5 over Steelers (Ravens)
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