The Dolphins on Hard Knocks: What Does it Mean for 2012?

Rex Ryan, Antonio Cromartie, and the Jets set a high bar for
the Dolphins,  the subject of this year's "Hard Knocks"

HBO announced yesterday that the Miami Dolphins will be featured on this year's installment of "Hard Knocks."  The Dolphins' new coach, Joe Philbin, raised some eyebrows yesterday when he claimed that going on Hard Knocks was a "football decision" rather than a marketing one.

We at The Backup Quarterback Blog have been bullish on the Dolphins so far this offseason, for a few reasons:

- They were 2 games better than their record last year
- They had the 4th best draft in the league
- They should get a bump from their new coach

Will appearing on Hard Knocks help the Dolphins?  We had a look at the past six participants on the show to find out.

Hard Knocks started with a 2-year stint in 2001-2002.  Following a 4 season hiatus, it returned in 2007 for 4 seasons before taking last season off due to the lockout.  That gives us six teams to examine.  Below, how each team fared in the year before and the year of its Hard Knocks appearance.

Year	Team	Previous Year Record,  Playoff Result	Following Year Record,  Playoff Result	Games Improved / Regressed	Playoff Standing Improved / Regressed?
‘01	Ravens	12-4, SB Champs	10-6, Lost in Div Round	-2	Regressed
‘02	Cowboys	5-11, Missed playoffs	5-11, Missed playoffs	0	Neither
‘07	Chiefs	9-7, Lost in Wild Card	4-12, Missed Playoffs	-5	Regressed
‘08	Cowboys	13-3, Lost in Div. Round	9-7, Missed playoffs	-4	Regressed
‘09	Bengals	4-11-1, Missed playoffs	10-6, Lost in Wild Card	+5.5	Improved
‘10	Jets	9-7, Lost in AFCCG	11-5, Lost in AFCCG	+2	Neither

Obviously we're talking a tiny sample size here, but a few things worth noting:

1. The average team regressed by about a half a game from the previous season.  You saw some significant variance around this, with the Bengals leaping by 5.5 games and the Chiefs plummeting from 9-7 to 4-12.  Half the teams regressed from the previous season in terms of where they finished in the playoffs.  Only one -- the '09 Bengals -- improved.

Child, Please!  Only the '09 Bengals have gone further in the playoffs in their Hard Knocks year than the year before.

2. Half the teams on Hard Knocks made the playoffs vs. 37.5% (12 of 32) for the NFL at large.  So slightly better than average, but probably some selection bias in there too.

3. This is the first Hard Knocks with a new coach.  Each of the previous coaches -- Brian Billick, Dave Campo, Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, Marvin Lewis, and Rex Ryan -- had been with their teams at least a year before the cameras showed up.  Edwards, sage that he is, claims that Hard Knocks wasn't a distraction to his team.  There must have been another reason they went 4-12 that year.

4. Teams with Antonio Cromartie who were on Hard Knocks have made at least the conference title game 100% of the time.  OK, this is really just an excuse to post this video.

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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