The Bills' Offseason Moves: Losing More Than They Gained

Stevie Johnson wonders if we should take the Bills offseason moves so seriously . . .

Welcome to the first in a series of posts where we look at individual teams and what they did in free agency this season.  This, along with previous posts focused on expected wins, and the draft, as well as a future look at how teams were impacted by injuries, will aid the BQB in its ultimate goal of coming up with its 2012 season predictions.

First up, the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills dominated some headlines in the offseason, most notably with their acquisition of Texans DE Mario Williams.  But did their additions offset their losses?  Find out after the jump . . .

First, a methodological note: we'll use Pro Football Reference's AV formula with a slight tweak to weight later years.  Each player's value is denoted as:

2009 AV + 2 x 2010 AV + 3 x 2011 AV

So a player who was out for the season last year with an injury still has value, but significantly less so than if he would have played.  Similarly, a rookie who took the league by storm last year has significant value but, less so than if he would have been on active rosters in 2009-2010.

With that, we turn to the Bills, who were relatively quiet in free agency.  The Bills acquired 5 (non-rookie) players via free agency:

1. Mario Williams, DE, Texans: 30
2. Vince Young, QB, Eagles: 29
3. Mark Anderson, DE, Patriots: 17
4. David Clowney, WR, last played in 2010: 4
5. Scott McKillop, last played in 2009: 2
Sum: 82

 The Bills lost 6 players with values greater than 0:

1. Drayton Florence, CB: 39 (cut, to the Broncos)
2. Demetress Bell, OT: 26 (to the Eagles)
3. Andra Davis, LB: 16 (free agent)
4. Reggie Corner, CB: 9 (free agent)
5. Roscoe Parrish, WR/PR, 6 (to the Chargers)
6. Jon Corto, FS: 3 (free agent)
Sum: 99

Some observations:

1. Strictly by the (overly) simple metric of comparing the sum of value the lost vs. the sum of value they gained, the Bills got worse in free agency; they gained 82 points of value and lost 99.

2. The loss of Florence (39), who was cut as part of a youth movement at CB, is significant.  According to our metric, Florence was the 4th-most valuable player on the Bills' roster last season, and the most valuable one on defense.  With no CBs signed via free agency, the Bills look to first rounder CB Stephon Gilmore to take Florence's place.  According to our AV rankings, the next man up would be Leodis McKelvin (yep, that Leodis McKelvin), but word is that he's on the bubble to even make the team.  So other starter looks to be first-round draft pick and either Aaron Williams (0) or Terrence McGee (12).  Not much improvement for a team that  finished 25th in the NFL against the pass last year.

3. Demetress Bell -- you might know him as Demetrius or as Karl Malone's biological son -- is another big loss without an obvious quality replacement.  Bell was the Bills' second-most valuable O-lineman last year after Andy Levitre, this despite an injury that limited Bell to just 7 games last year.  Buffalo was rumored to be in the hunt for Iowa OT Riley Reiff in the first round.  They went with Gilmore instead. Chris Hairston (12 vs. a 23 for Bell) likely slides into Bell's spot.

4. The much-ballyhooed signing of Mario Williams (30), along with the return of NT Kyle Williams (3) from injury, means the Bills will have a formidable starting defensive line that should give offensive coordinators fits.  But by our metric, Williams wouldn't even be the most valuable DE on the roster -- that title goes to Dwan Edwards (34), who started 13 games last year but isn't projected to start this year.  Mario Williams, when healthy, is a world-class player, but is he worth a $100 MM contract with Edwards waiting in the wings?  We'll find out.  To be fair, Williams and his 53 career sacks (vs. Edwards' 5.5) should clearly enhance the Bills' pass rush, which may leave their thin secondary out to dry less frequently.

Would Marv have signed Mario Williams to a $100 MM contract with Dwan Edwards waiting in the wings?

5. Our value metric says the Vince Young signing is about as good as the Williams signing (again, mostly due to his injury last year and Young's 21 starts over the past 3 years).  But consider that starter Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn't missed a start due to injury the past 2 years and evidently played the second of half of last season with cracked ribs.  So unless Fitzpatrick proves ineffective, Young might never see the field, leaving us only to dream of performances like this.

So in sum, the Bills failed to fill the holes left by their 2 biggest losses in free agency, and their 2 biggest signings were in positions of strength (Williams) or on positions unlikely to see the field (Young).  Throw in an only average draft, and, without some young players stepping up big-time, the Bills may struggle to improve on their 6-10 campaign last year.

Think we're crazy?  Think we're brilliant?  Tell us in the comments!

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