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| Stanford TE Coby Fleener: The Safest Bet in Tonight's First Round? |
When their team’s first round draft pick(s) is/are announced tonight, a lot of fans will be asking themselves the following question: “Should I be excited?” After all, only a handful of players typically evoke true feelings of excitement in a given draft. In this draft, Andrew Luck, RG3, Trent Richardson, and Justin Blackmon probably comprise that group. No one’s going around fist-pumping and yelling “we just got our starting left tackle for the next 12 years!” (Least of all the Vikings, who are about as psyched to take Matt Kalil at 3 as Sally Draper was to hang out with Henry Francis' mother a few weeks ago on Mad Men.)
As a Steelers fan, I can only remember three times during the draft when I was legitimately excited after a draft:
1. In 1996, when they acquired Jerome Bettis from the Rams, and my excitement there was over Bettis, not a draftpick
2. In 2004, when they selected Ben Roethlisberger 11th overall, the first QB since Terry Bradshaw who could give fans even a sliver of hope that they could come back from a double-digit lead
3. In 2007, when they selected RoboPunter in the 4th round. (Unfortunately, the RoboPunter era came to an end last year. But it was fun while it lasted.)
I digress. This post looks at a more quantifiable way to decide how you should feel about your team’s first-round draft pick: that pick’s position. After the jump, a look at the likelihood of success at each position in the first round, and why you should be psyched if your team ends up with a guy named Coby Fleener (no relation to Myra Fleener).
We looked at all 319 first-round draft picks of the last 10 years (32 picks per year, minus the pick lost by the Patriots for Spygate). Again, we’re using a slightly revised version of the Bill Barnwell approach to measure performance (admittedly a flawed approach, but an appropriate one for our purposes), but unlike yesterday’s post, we’re not considering Super Bowl wins this time (that felt right for quarterbacks but not for everyday players). To recap, our performance formula is as follows:
We looked at all 319 first-round draft picks of the last 10 years (32 picks per year, minus the pick lost by the Patriots for Spygate). Again, we’re using a slightly revised version of the Bill Barnwell approach to measure performance (admittedly a flawed approach, but an appropriate one for our purposes), but unlike yesterday’s post, we’re not considering Super Bowl wins this time (that felt right for quarterbacks but not for everyday players). To recap, our performance formula is as follows:
Games started + 0.5 * Games used as a sub + 10 * Pro Bowls + 10 * 1st-Team All Pro Seasons
The average draft pick across all positions was a 68. To make things easier, we normalized everything to make the average 100, so an average draft pick is 100. We then looked at the average performance by position:
Rank
|
Position
|
# of Picks (%)
|
Normalized Average Performance Score (average = 100)
|
1
|
TE
|
13 (4%)
|
137
|
2
|
LB
|
33 (10%)
|
115
|
3
|
DB
|
55 (17%)
|
113
|
4
|
OL
|
51 (16%)
|
100
|
5
|
WR
|
37 (12%)
|
94
|
6
|
RB
|
28 (9%)
|
86
|
7
|
QB
|
30 (9%)
|
85
|
Total
|
319 (100%)
|
100
|
We already looked at how quarterbacks can be hit or miss with the first overall pick. Now, our data suggests the same is true of QBs taken in the rest of the first round, as they have the worst performance of any position.
As for the best position, Tight End? Really? Something else must be at play here. One thing we didn’t take into account is where a player is taken in the first round. If tight ends are selected before other positions, then it would stand to reason that those picks perform better. Is that the case? Turns out, no:
As for the best position, Tight End? Really? Something else must be at play here. One thing we didn’t take into account is where a player is taken in the first round. If tight ends are selected before other positions, then it would stand to reason that those picks perform better. Is that the case? Turns out, no:
Rank
|
Position
|
# of Picks (%)
|
Average Pick
|
Performance Score (avg. = 100)
|
1
|
TE
|
13 (4%)
|
22
|
137
|
2
|
LB
|
33 (10%)
|
15
|
115
|
3
|
DB
|
55 (17%)
|
18
|
113
|
4
|
OL
|
51 (16%)
|
17
|
100
|
5
|
WR
|
37 (12%)
|
17
|
94
|
6
|
RB
|
28 (9%)
|
18
|
86
|
7
|
QB
|
30 (9%)
|
11
|
85
|
Total
|
319 (100%)
|
16
|
100
|
Not only are tight ends not selected abnormally higher, they’re typically the lowest picks of the first round. They don’t get picked very often, but when they do, they seem to produce starters – if not superstars -- at a far higher frequency than other positions. Here’s a look at the 13 tight ends taken in the first round in the past 10 years:
Rank
|
Year
|
Player
|
Games Started
|
Games Subbed
|
Pro Bowls
|
1st Team All-Pros
|
Normalized Score
|
1
|
02
|
J Shockey, NYG
|
129
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
268
|
2
|
03
|
D Clark, IND
|
111
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
196
|
3
|
02
|
D Graham, NE
|
117
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
190
|
4
|
05
|
H Miller, PIT
|
106
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
172
|
5
|
06
|
V Davis, SF
|
86
|
2
|
1
|
0
|
143
|
6
|
06
|
M Lewis, JAC
|
81
|
12
|
1
|
0
|
143
|
7
|
04
|
K Winslow, TB
|
80
|
12
|
1
|
0
|
141
|
8
|
04
|
B Watson, NE
|
74
|
26
|
0
|
0
|
128
|
9
|
02
|
J Stevens, SEA
|
41
|
80
|
0
|
0
|
119
|
10
|
07
|
G Olsen, CHI
|
52
|
26
|
0
|
0
|
96
|
11
|
08
|
D Keller, NYJ
|
45
|
19
|
0
|
0
|
80
|
12
|
09
|
B Pettigrew, DET
|
43
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
63
|
13
|
10
|
J Gresham, CIN
|
23
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
38
|
Only 13 picks in that group, so these guys don’t come around too often, but only 4 out of 13 have had below average (below 100) performance for the first round (and each of those were fairly recent picks). Stepping outside the sample for a moment, 2 other first rounders in previous years have also had excellent careers (Tony Gonzalez in '97 and Todd Heap in '01).
Compare the tight ends with, say, the 28 running backs who were selected in the first round in the past decade:
Compare the tight ends with, say, the 28 running backs who were selected in the first round in the past decade:
Rank
|
Year
|
Player
|
Games Started
|
Games Subbed
|
Pro Bowls
|
1st Team All-Pros
|
Normalized Score
|
1
|
04
|
S Jackson, STL
|
103
|
12
|
3
|
0
|
204
|
2
|
07
|
A Peterson, MIN
|
66
|
7
|
4
|
2
|
190
|
3
|
03
|
W McGahee, BUF
|
79
|
41
|
1
|
0
|
161
|
4
|
08
|
C Johnson, TEN
|
62
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
151
|
5
|
03
|
L Johnson, KC
|
55
|
30
|
2
|
1
|
147
|
6
|
05
|
R Brown, MIA
|
73
|
19
|
1
|
0
|
136
|
7
|
06
|
J Addai, IND
|
60
|
18
|
1
|
0
|
116
|
8
|
05
|
C Benson, CHI
|
66
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
115
|
9
|
07
|
M Lynch, BUF
|
63
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
114
|
10
|
06
|
D Williams, CAR
|
51
|
29
|
1
|
0
|
111
|
11
|
05
|
C Williams, TB
|
58
|
24
|
0
|
0
|
103
|
12
|
06
|
R Bush, NO
|
56
|
19
|
0
|
0
|
96
|
13
|
04
|
K Jones, DET
|
49
|
15
|
0
|
0
|
83
|
14
|
02
|
T Duckett, ATL
|
14
|
78
|
0
|
0
|
78
|
15
|
08
|
R Mendenhall, PIT
|
44
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
70
|
16
|
08
|
D McFadden, OAK
|
32
|
13
|
0
|
0
|
57
|
17
|
08
|
J Stewart, CAR
|
13
|
49
|
0
|
0
|
55
|
18
|
02
|
W Green, CLE
|
29
|
17
|
0
|
0
|
55
|
19
|
06
|
L Maroney, NE
|
17
|
32
|
0
|
0
|
49
|
20
|
08
|
F Jones, DAL
|
16
|
32
|
0
|
0
|
47
|
21
|
09
|
K Moreno, DEN
|
24
|
13
|
0
|
0
|
45
|
22
|
09
|
B Wells, ARI
|
16
|
28
|
0
|
0
|
44
|
23
|
09
|
D Brown, IND
|
11
|
29
|
0
|
0
|
37
|
24
|
10
|
R Mathews, SD
|
22
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
35
|
25
|
04
|
C Perry, CIN
|
9
|
26
|
0
|
0
|
32
|
26
|
10
|
C Spiller, BUF
|
12
|
18
|
0
|
0
|
31
|
27
|
10
|
J Best, DET
|
15
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
27
|
28
|
11
|
M Ingram, NO
|
4
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
10
|
Ugh. 17 out of 28 have scores below 100, indicating a below-average draft pick. Some of those names are recent draft picks, but for every Mark Ingram, there’s a Chris Perry in ’04 (*Bengals fans nodding grimly*) and a William Green in '02 (*Browns fans rolling their eyes*).
So forget about Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson and focus on Coby Fleener, the top tight end on this year’s board. Fleener is the only tight end projected to go in the first round; none went in the first round last year. Get a tight end, and you're in good shape to at least lock up a solid, multi-year starter.
For what it's worth, Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock have Fleener going to the Texans at 26 (who saw Joel Dreesen depart for Denver), while Mike Lombardi and Charley Casserly have him going at 32 to the Giants, who saw not one but two tight ends tear ACLs in the Super Bowl.
For what it's worth, Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock have Fleener going to the Texans at 26 (who saw Joel Dreesen depart for Denver), while Mike Lombardi and Charley Casserly have him going at 32 to the Giants, who saw not one but two tight ends tear ACLs in the Super Bowl.
Stuck with a running back or quarterback in round 1 this year? Don’t fret -- although the odds aren’t in your favor, there’s still a chance you’ll hit the jackpot (maybe not the full Mega Millions, but at least 2 + the MegaBall). Your “ceilings” by position in the first round:
Best Performance Scores by Position, Round 1 Picks, 2002-2011 Draft:
Pos.
|
Year
|
Player
|
Games Started
|
Games Subbed
|
Pro Bowls
|
1st Team All-Pros
|
Normalized Score
|
DB
|
02
|
E Reed, BAL
|
143
|
1
|
8
|
5
|
402
|
DL
|
03
|
K Williams, MIN
|
140
|
0
|
6
|
5
|
368
|
LB
|
05
|
D Ware, DAL
|
111
|
1
|
6
|
4
|
311
|
WR
|
04
|
L Fitzgerald, ARI
|
123
|
1
|
6
|
1
|
285
|
TE
|
02
|
J Shockey, NYG
|
129
|
7
|
4
|
1
|
268
|
OL
|
03
|
J Gross, CAR
|
135
|
0
|
2
|
1
|
243
|
QB
|
04
|
E Manning, NYG
|
119
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
206
|
RB
|
04
|
S Jackson, STL
|
103
|
12
|
3
|
0
|
204
|
So even if you’re the team that mortgages your future to trade up for Trent Richardson, there’s hope. He might be the next Steven Jackson.
Enjoy the draft. We’ll leave you with a nod to the last special teamer selected in the first round . . .
 |
| Seabass, taken 17th overall in 2000 by the Raiders |
Special thanks to Pro Football Reference for most of the raw stats used in this post.
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